On November 3 in the US there’s a general election for a handful of special elections and gubernatorial races. In Virginia, the Republicans will win back the governor’s masion. In New Jersey the polls show a tie between the Democrat, the Republican, with a genuine third-party candidate (not a disgruntled Dem or GOP-er who is dirty for not having won the nomination) preventing a Republican run-away. I suspect the Dems will retain as the undecided (a very small number, which reflect how close the race will be) settle for the guy they know on voting day. In New York, Mike Bloomberg will return as mayor after previousl abolishing term limits and running on an independent ticket with Republican backing.
It’s the 23rd district in New York, however, that is the most volatile and interesting race to watch. The 23rd got here because Republican Representative John McHugh accepted the offer by President Obama to serve as secretary of the army. Certainly a step up for a minority congressman that has little seniority in the House. But it will be the death of his career in the GOP as anyone who colaborates with the Democrats is given a beat-down by the party. Actually, you don’t even need to work with the Democrats, you just need to be a lesser shade of red for the Republican party to leave you out in the cold. This is shown in the fallout in the race for McHugh’s seat.
The initial processes went like clockwork: Governor Patterson (the guy who will lose to state attorney-general Andrew Cuomo come his reelection) was notifed of the new vacancy and, by the rules of setting a special election 30-40 days from the notification, promptly (after stuffing around with Clinton’s replacement) set the date for November 3 (the general election date). Now the way the parties get their nominees for special elections in New York is different to regular elections. There aren’t any primaries. Rather, County Party Committee Chairmen (the chairmen of the respective parties for the counties that make up the 23rd district) get together, read the resumes that prospective nominees submit to them, and decide who the nominee is going to be. On one hand, this process could be extremely corrupt. On the other, it could be used to enure that the strongest and best candidate for the election becomes the nominee. I, and it would seem both the Dems and the GOP chairmen through the nominees that they have selected, believe in this last point.
But it appears that a lot of the Republican high-profiles and voters didn’t get this memo on political logic.
The seat, most importantly, is R+1. This means it’s a swing seat of the highest degree. What with the Democratic sweeps of 2006 and 2008, New York being a blue-as-blue state, and with a Democratic president, not to mention the current implosion of the Republicans going on nationally, the seat had the potential to swing to the Democrats. So the Democrats only needed to nominate someone, ideally a centrist Democrat (maybe even a centre-right Democrat), who would be tollerable to the base, the independents, and the disaffected Republicans of the area. The Republicans, on the other hand, didn’t want to lose another seat in the House (see: 2006 mid-term election, 2008 general election, NY 20th special election), and only needed to find a centrist who would win over the base, and teh independents.
The Democrats have had no problems: The chairmen selected a Bill Owens, a lawyer from the area who had never been in office before. A successful nomination as the guy has no record that the Republicans could rail against, he has local experience with community-based work, served in the air force, intelligent guy. A picture freshman candidate. It was a logical choice by the Democrats, with only a slight gamble (on the no previous office part). But they couldn’t choose a local politician due to the turmoil that the state assembly is going through (the Democrats, depending on the mood of 2 members, either have majority in both chambers or not in the state senate; it’s that tenuious).
The Republicans, in a stroke of brilliance, took a move from the Democrat’s play book from the past 4 years. They chairmen nominated a woman, state assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava, who is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. You would never imagine the GOP power-people nominating this type of candidate, or even backing, prior to 2006 or 2008. But, after being whipped in two elections on the trot and losing control of the House, the Senate, then handing the Dems a fillibuster proof majority in the Senate, and the White House, the Republicans (at least in New York) learned that it’s not about nominating candidates who are as right-wing as they come but rather nominating canidates that will win the races, then sorting out their where their vote lies when it matters. It looked as though someone had started handing out brains to Republicans.
Then the crap hit the fan.
One of the losing potential nominees for the Republicans was Doug Hoffman, was adopted by the New York Conservative Party. Apparently, and it makes sense for the Conservative Party to do this, Scozzafava wasn’t militant-right for them. They didn’t cross-endorse the GOP candidate – and really, why would you want the right-fringe (because that’s what they CP is, nationally, these days) endorsing your candidate? Anyway, Hoffman quickly became the CP’s nominee in the special election. And instantly the base was split. The hard-right voters who didn’t want to vote for a liberal Republican backed Hoffman. These are the same people, I suspect, that want the GOP to be a minority for time never-ending. The GOP loyalists stuck with Scozzafava. The Republican vote was cut in half nearly immediately.
The problem with Hoffman as a third-party candidate is that he doesn’t even apeal to disaffected Democrats who aren’t happy with Obama’s current performance. Nor does he apeal to independents who might want to send a message. He is hurting the Republican chances of retaining the seat.
Anyway, this might not have mattered going into the final few weeks. Scozzafava could have started campaigning to get back some of her base with “My votes will always be in the interest of the state, first, and the Republican party second. You know I will always be looking out for each and every constituent and not taking orders from a bunch of cronies in the South”. She could have apealed to independents saying “Obama has broken his promises to you. I won’t, and I’ll deliver for the state”. And she could have won a few Democrats to make up a winning group by saying “Look at my reputation. The only difference between me and the Democratic candidate is that I’m for fiscal responsibility, not dolling out money to every executive in the country.” In the end, a campaign like that, in the final weeks, I believe would have retained the seat for the GOP.
Then more crap hit the fan.
Sarah Palin, in her infinite genius and wisom, decided to endorsed Hoffman. More on that later. The Club for Growth, a big group in NY, endorsed Hoffman instead of endorsing the GOP candidate as they usually do. Of course, the pro-life groups endorsed Hoffman. Fred Thompson, former senator and complete failure of a GOP presidential primary candidate last year, endorsed Hoffman. Former House majority leader Dick Armey endorsed Hoffman. Former senator, and permanent nutbag, Rick Santorum endorsed Hoffman. Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell endored Hoffman. Current governor of Minnesota, and will-be Republican primary candidate in 2012, Tim Pawlenty endorsed Hoffman. Current representative and Christmas fruitcake Michelle Bachmann endorsed Hoffman. The Wall Street Journal endorsed Hoffman. He got a massive list of big name Republicans to back him over the establishment’s candidate, and things got ugly for everyone. Scozzafava’s numbered stayed half, and are still there. She went from leading the polls to a close second, to outright third.
This is why the race is going to be interesting. It’s not because it’s a three-horse race, or that it’s going to be very close. But, all-in-all, this election is a referendum on the Republican party. It’s no longer a vote on whether Obama is doing a good job, or Democratic Congress is doing a good job. It’s about whether the Republican part should lurch violently further right or go try to win back seats and chambers with moderate and tollerable Republicans. Each side is going to have something to say no matter what the result is. If Hoffman wins, some Republicans will say “This is proof we shouldn’t be running candidates who aren’t right of Hitler”. If Owens wins, the same people will say the same thing. If Scozzafava wins, which seems unlikely at this point, the party establishment will say “Here’s proof that we should compromise on the policies of our candidates. I would have you note that Newt Gingrich and (of all people) Mike Huckabee have expressed opinions along these lines; saying that the GOP will be a permanent majority unless they shift back towards the centre on some issues.
It makes no sense to me why there would be Republicans – people who proudly proclaim that they are Republicans – who have decided that running candidates who would win with a lighter shade of red is a bad thing, and running candidates that could lose but are red-red-red is a better thing? Does Palin or Pawlenty really think that the GOP will take over the House with candidates that are completely anti-abortion, completely anti-gay rights, and are only going to Congress to oppose any bill that comes their way? There is no way a party can win a majority of the country over espousing the views and the policies that the Palin’s and the Hoffman’s put forward. No way. I am just amazed at the stupidity of these people in not backing Scozzafava for the win. She would have won with their backing and a proper message. Instead, she recieved minimal backing and her messaged was hacked to bits as the Republican party tried to figure out their own national message.
An edit: The next day, Newt Gingrich is quoted as having said something that completly reflects the notion I’m putting forward here:
And so this idea that we’re suddenly going to establish litmus tests, and all across the country, we’re going to purge the party of anybody who doesn’t agree with us 100 percent — that guarantees Obama’s reelection. That guarantees Pelosi is Speaker for life. I mean, I think that is a very destructive model for the Republican Party.
Anyway, the election will be a test of the Republicans. It will determine if the Republican voters have a brain between them and back their candidate. Help us all if Hoffman wins. Not because he will do anything in Congress, but because it will have a much larger impact on the national Republican party than anything else that will happen come the end of the year.
Thomas.
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