Deus Lo Vult

Hey again. I’m in New York now. Not a long update - I have to pay per the 5 minutes for this connection.

The tour part of the trip is over, meaning it’s free time for Thomas. I spent tonight having dinner with my friend Diana, along with most of the other people on tour who wanted to have one final dinner. Went walking round Time Square. Was a sight. I’ll update further soon. Hope everyone is well.

Thomas.

I’m in Dallas. It’s 11:51pm, Saturday the 5th. This is just a short update.

Lots of photos, and many with The 18 Cup. The Grand Canyon and Monument Valley probably have the best … so far. Dallas is home to somewhere I really want to get a photo of.

My first day, in terms of waking hours, went like this: Landed and was up for 36 hours straight. Got 5 hours sleep, then was up for 24 hours in Vegas. 60 hours for 5 hours sleep is not a good sleep. There is a good story to tell here. And a great blog post.

In fact, there’s already been a lot of blog posts written. I’m keeping a journal to keep myself amused during the long bus trips - like the 7 hour one today between Amarillo and Dallas.

I’ve picked up a few more hats for my collection, but tomorrow is the big hat day. Next to this hotel, there is a Texan cowboy store, and I am going to get fully fitted in the proper Western gear that everyone expects me to wear with my now trademark hat.

So yeah, just something short. I’ll check in in a few days. Oh, and something to note: You wouldn’t know there is an election coming up. Serious. It’s sad. And disappointing.

Thomas.

Now is the time to shake up the Australian cricket team. Ricky Ponting is struggling with form, having only made one decent score in both the tests and ODIs to date in the West Indies - a team that should be no challenge to a man of his previous displayed skills. Mathew Hayden is out injured, and will probably retire at the end of the Ashes series next year in England. We have a new wicket keeper in Brad Haddin, replacing the recently retired Adam Gilchrist. We have no spinner for the ODI team, and a man who has played 1 match for the test team.

What we have is the opportunity to make the ODI team into a way that touring can ‘train up’ players to take the places of those retiring cricketers in the test team that are head and shoulders above the rest of the cricketing world. Right now, we have no regular openers, no regular all-rounder (Symonds is out injured too), a fresh wicket keeper, no spinner, and only one bowling veteran in the ODI team. Here’s the line-up from the latest victory in the West Indies:

Shaun Marsh (debut match), Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Brad Haddin, Cameron White, James Hopes, Brett Lee, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Bracken

What we have there is on the verge of what I’m talking about. But there doesn’t seem to be any agreement between tours of who is the next player to take a spot in the test team. In between the last test and the ODI series in the West Indies, there was a tour match that included the likes of David Hussey and Shaun Marsh. Phil Jaques, Chris Rogers? The two ‘expected’ to take spots in the test team in the future were no where to be seen.

So what should happen?

Openers

Mathew Hayden becomes a test player only. He’s injured now, he may retire next year. Perhaps scaling down his commitments will allow someone to shine and be the ‘logical’ choice to his place. You would think they would have the choice sorted out already - but no. Phil Jaques seems to have taken Justin Langer’s spot in tests, and Chris Rogers was to be the next opener in the team. Now Rogers doesn’t get a match, Simon Katich is playing in tests, Shaun Marsh is opening in the ODI team, and David Hussey is getting tour matches.

The selectors are probably eager to find out which players can handle the international matches, but they are discovering too late that they have inadequately planned for the future. The ODI team should have had regular players that were capable of taking Hayden’s and Langer’s places without the messing around that is happening now. That’s why they should settle on Jaques for the test team and leave him there. He doesn’t play ODIs anyway, so leave it at that.

You now have two opener positions for the ODI team (drop Hayden, Gilchrist is retired). Simon Katich goes into one of them. I don’t think he should be in either team, but his current form justifies it. The second goes to Chris Rogers. He was good enough for consideration in the past, so stick with the guy. When the time comes, hopefully Rogers is up to the task of taking a test team. If not, Katich might have been able to string together some form and he can take the place. Though he is no spring chicken either, and eventually Rogers will go into the team.

First drop/Captaincy

Drop Ricky Ponting from the ODI team. His form is down, and while that might not be the best reason to drop someone, he regularly voices the opinion that there is too much cricket being played. This way you can cut down on his cricket commitments, and also get a few extra years out of expertise. This frees up the first-drop position, of which I would fill with David Hussey. His form is good, and he has a good eye. He will, one day, be called up to the test team, so get him into the international arena as soon as possible.

After dropping Ponting, make Michael Clarke captain. Clarke has pretty much been the the protégé to Ponting for the past 2 years. Now’s the time to see if he can handle it. Take away the mentor from the ODI arena and see of Clarke can swim. Have Ponting still with Clarke in the test matches, because there are still things to learn there, but Clarke needs to be put to the test sooner or later, so let’s see him at work now. Clarke ends up being an ODI and test player.

Middle order

For the number 4, Clarke stays in (see above).

Michael Hussey stays in his test and ODI number 5 spot. However, I’m tossing up whether to make Michael Hussey tes only. His form can go down after playing too much cricket. But the guy loves his cricket, and might take a psychological blow being dropped from a team. If I were to drop him from the ODI team, I would put in Adam Voges - a contracted player from Western Australia who’s already played a couple of ODIs. He is a future test player, so get him into a team soon to get him used to the style of cricket in the international arena.

At the end of the day, I think Hussey will have to justify his place in the ODI team. I’d give him a year to solidify his place, by which time he will be 34 years old and might be looking to scale back commitments anyway. If that’s the case, Voges comes in.

Andrew Symonds keeps the spot as test all-rounder, but becomes a test only player. Shane Watson becomes the all-rounder in the ODI team in an effort to make something really good out of him. Yes he can bowl, but no better than Symonds, and he certainly isn’t as good a bat as him either. Watson needs to find that special edge that makes him a deadly opponent on the field. He hasn’t found it yet, so I think giving him a permanent fixture in a team will allow him to do that.

Wicket keeper

Brad Haddin stays in the test team, but is a test player only. Luke Ronchi, contracted player from Western Australia, takes the ODI place for keeper. Why have two keepers? Because this is the most important position to fill if an injury occurs. You need, you absolutely have to have, a skilled and able keeper to take the place of your #1 keeper who is presumably in the test team. Ronchi is good, but he is only just getting into the international game. Make him the permanent player in the ODIs and he will go from stride to stride, eventually reaching a level that will justify having him in the test team. When Haddin retires, you have a great keeper to take his spot, and you start the process again.

Spinner

The test team can have a spinner. I suppose you need one, and it’s best to designate a spot to one so that the selectors aren’t confronted with having to drop someone in the future when we find a really good spinner. You see, it’s my opinion that there are no spinners in the domestic competition that should be in the international team. Maybe I’m still wearing my Warne/MacGill/Hogg glasses, but that’s what I think. It’s much of a muchness among them, in my opinion.

I looked at this spot in two ways: First, choose a specialist spinner; second, choose another all-rounder. If I were going with a specialist spinner, leave Beau Casson in the team. You’ve debuted him, he’s alright, leave him be. For the all-rounder, I’d slip Haddin down a spot and put either Shane Watson in to get some more experience, or Adam Voges who can throw the ball around. They are both all-rounders (Watson is, Voges could be) that will be in my ODI team in the hopes that they perform well enough to get called up to the test team, so why not give one of them an early chance.

The ODI team, however, does not get a spot for a spinner. I’m including an extra all-rounder spot for Doug Bollinger, contracted player from New South Wales. He is a specialist bowler who can throw the bat around. The ODI team has Clarke, Watson and Voges - all three of these guys can bowl a bit. This way, there are 4 specialist pace bowlers and 3 part-time bowlers, 2 who spin, one who is medium pace. That’s enough for me.

Pending where the matches are, Bollinger can be changed with Cameron White - a genuine all-rounder who is a better batter. If the pitches are going to be batter-friendly it will pay to have that extra batter, and 3 specialist bowlers with 4 part-timers.

Bowling

For the bowling line-up, Brett Lee becomes a test player only. It’s only time until he gets an injury that will really hurt his effectiveness. He is Australia’s equal best bowler going (along with Stuart Clark), and we need him in the future. Lee was really put to work in the speed-bowler-unfriendly wickets in West Indies, and you could see that all the effort he was having to put into his matches were taking a toll. Really, he shouldn’t be playing these one-dayers and should be resting up.

Nathan Bracken stays in the ODI team as a permanent fixture. He can’t get a spot in the test team because he isn’t economical over 5 days, but is deadly over 50 overs. You keep him in the ODI team because he is a specialist here, along with a handful of other players. And because you want to keep the ODI team a winning group, you need to have these sorts of players in. He’s effective, he’s deadly, and he’s accurate.

Stuart Clark plays ODIs and tests for another year to help ‘train up’ some of the contracted players to international-level skills. After that year, or when someone is ready to take his spot in the ODI team, he becomes a test player only. He is getting on in age too, and while he won’t be among the first to retire, we need to make sure he stays in the test team long enough for future bowlers of his ilk to get to Clark/McGrath standards.

The bowler I would have Clark ‘mentor’ would be Ben Hilfenhaus, a contracted player from Tasmania. He had a bit of a showing in the past year and some, but was ignored largely in the wake of Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait - neither of which, in my opinion, were better than Hilenhaus. Get this guy into the team and get him some experience and he can take the place of Clark when he retires. He has the skill and the technique ready to be molded.

Mitchell Johnson retains his test spot if only until Hilfenhaus is ready to move to the test team - hopefully before Clark retires. I advocate sticking with players that have been chosen once already and haven’t done anything that warrants a dropping, so keep him in the test team and see if he can improve. He has shown signs of getting better recently, but is no where near as effective as Lee and Clark, nor McGrath before them. Hopefully being around Lee and Clark will teach Johnson something and he will get better.

Now that’s my pair of teams. You’ll see that I didn’t debut anyone who hasn’t already debuted in the test team, but have turned the ODI team into a sort of ‘farming territory’ for the test team. I expect someone might wonder where the likes of Brad Hodge and Shaun Tait have gone. Well, Tait doesn;t deserve to be in the team after his hoopla over retiring and what-not, and Hodge is an unfortunate loss, but isn’t at the proper age to be in the ODI team as a future player, not as a man of experience.

In the end, my teams look like this:

Test: Mathew Hayden, Phil Jaques, Ricky Ponting (c), Michael Clarke, Michael Hussey, Andrew Symonds, Brad Haddin, Brett Lee, Beau Casson, Stuart Clark, Mitchell Johnson

ODI: Simon Katich, Chris Rogers, David Hussey, Michael Clarke, Michael Hussey/Adam Voges, Shane Watson, Luke Ronchi, Doug Bollinger/Chris White, Ben Hilfenhaus, Stuart Clark, Nathan Bracken

Little cross-over between the teams ensures less player burnout, the ability for the test players to focus on playing in a test match style, with the ODI players a chance to focus on their own style of cricket (in a sense, finding their feet in the international arena).

The test team becomes the obvious priority among Australia cricket - as it should be. And, of course, fluidity between the teams means that if the test team needs an extra bowler or batter, they know who to pick - the corresponding player in the ODI team. They don’t have to worry about debuting someone who hasn’t played international cricket yet.

And as players step up from the ODI team to the test team, you find the next player among the domestic teams to take his spot. I can think of players that I had to not include in the ODI team because of room - Shaun Marsh, Ashley Nofke - that I would like to see make it one day. It’s a very logical series of progression that should instill some sort of life back into cricket in Australia.

Thomas.

I have 2 posts to write, both about polls. First up is the state polls released over the past few days. Oregon (7EV) had a bit of a surprise. Barack Obama is up, but only by 3% here - 48% to 45%. No alarm bells will be ringing in the Obama campaign just yet, seeings as how he has led every Oregon poll from the start and by 8% just last week, but I think that more attention will be paid to the state in the weeks after the convention should this poll start a trend. Obama wins women here by 29% and McCain wins men by 29% - another big gender gap. Important here is that women make up 54% of the voters. Portland, the city-centre, is Obama’s by 9%, and crucial is that it makes up 64% of the voters. Otherwise, there might be a little trouble as McCain wins the rest of the areas anywhere up to 10%. If this poll is the truth, and it is a close state, McCain isn’t in much of a position to even capitalise on it. That’s why bringing Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska (and more, as you will soon see) is a triple hit - McCain has to defend his base, can’t compete in swing states, and can’t try and flip close Democratic states.

Some good news for McCain - he will win Utah! Yes, Utah (5EV) has two polls out, one giving McCain a 28% lead (57% to 29%) and another giving him a 19% lead (52% to 33%). That 9% difference is nothing notable, the state will go red. I don’t know why they even poll the state. I wouldn’t expect to see any more than 1 more poll from the state after the conventions.

New Mexico (5EV) was surveyed twice and came out with a healthy 8% lead for Obama - 47% to 39% - and an interesting 3% lead - 49% to 46%. I’ll look at the first poll first. There’s quite a bit of undecided here that could swing the result, but I expect Obama to target them with Bill Richardson, whether he is on the ticket or not. Obama leads among women by 11% and men by 7% and independents by 7%, and is still only getting 72% of the Democratic vote. If he were to get that number up to 80-85% then he would have a comfortable win in New Mexico come November. Interesting to note, 51% of respondents said they didn’t want to see Hillary Clinton as the VP, while only 29% said they did.

As for the second poll, we see some more similar numbers. Obama leads women by 30%, McCain men by 24%. This might be closer simply because of the location the poll was taken, the time of day, or the sample groups. There’s a range of reasons. But it still had Obama up. The state might be close, but the state is blue at the moment.

Pennsylvania (21EV) has a 4% lead for Obama - 46% to 42%. It’s up on his 2% lead last month. This is what’s expected in those swing states that Clinton won in the primaries - Obama needs to get in and familiarise himself with the voters. He is leading among voters on the issue of economics, and that will be a big advantage in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan. Interesting, Obama only gets 69% of the Democratic vote but is still winning by 4%. If he were to increase that by just 10% (ignoring that he could get it up a further 15%), his margin would be very comfortable. Obama’s overall lead comes from him winning independents by 11% - an extremely important lead to maintain in Pennsylvania. This is Obama’s 7th consecutive lead in Pennsylvania polls. I said a while ago that the state isn’t swing, that it’s blue. I’m right.

Michigan (17EV) was McCain’s only real chance of threatening Obama’s base. It looks as though that ship has set sail. Obama is up by 9% here in the latest poll - 48% to 39%. He is spending more time there, did the Edwards endorsement and the Gore endorsement there, and is campaigning heavy in the state. Expect the money to start flowing in the day after the convention. Extremely important number: Obama wins 78% of the Democratic vote. McCain is only winning 74% of the Republican vote. If McCain stays stagnant, and Obama is able to get that up to more than 80%, then Obama wins by double-figures. This is a blue state for now. Obama’s lead on economic issues will see that it probably stays blue too.

And we get to my favourite poll for the post: Indiana (11EV). The poll prior to this had it a race that would probably go McCains way, but room for Obama to maybe divert attention away (again, like North Carolina and Georgia) from real swing states - 48% to 39%. The latest poll, however, puts the state in the category with North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska - possible Democratic gains. The poll had Obama with a 1% lead, 48% to 47%. This will be probably more worrying that the other states because Indiana is like the litmus test for Republicans on the economy. Indiana is a red state - President Bush won it by 21% in 2004, 16% in 2000, while Bob Dole (Dole for crying out loud!) beat Bill Clinton in the state by 5% in 1996, and George Bush beat
Bill Clinton for it in 1992 by 6%. It is a red state, and the economy is the number one issue. If the Republican candidate is weak on the economy, then Indiana quickly starts looking for a candidate that is strong on the economy, and thus the state becomes competitive.

McCain could sure up the state by picking Mitt Romney as his VP, but he would quickly lose more ground in Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska. McCain could go a different route to sure up those Southern states and pick a Southern VP like Mike Huckabee, but he would lose ground in Indiana and Alaska. This latest poll, if it’s the case on the ground, provides some serious problems for McCain. McCain is also at a disadvantage because Obama comes from neighbouring Illinois, because of the extended primary season in which a fair few Republicans switched parties in the excitement of the action and intended to continue voting Democrat, because the state has been hammered economically, and because the state seems to be blaming the sitting president and his party for their problems. This does not bode well for McCain.

Looking at the numbers in the poll, Obama wins women by 7%, McCain wins men by 5%. Obama wins the 18-49 ages by 5%, McCain withs the 50+ by 3%. The worst numbers for McCain is that he dominates in the issues of terrorism (92% to 8% for voters who view this issue as the most important) and immigration (90% to 8% for voters who view this issue as the most important), but that, combined, only 17% of Indiana voters consider these the most important issue. 62% of the state say that the economy and Iraq are the most important issues - and Obama wins both (54% to 40% and 66% to 31% respectively). Obama needs to keep these levels steady, improve on the other issues and win over the independents some more, and then we have a ballgame.

When you start looking at the list of traditional states that McCain is going to have to spend money on (North Carolina (15EV), Georgia (15EV), Alaska (3EV), Indiana (11EV)) we see that there is 44 Republican electoral votes up for grabs here, and no Democratic ones. If McCain isn’t worried … what am I saying, I’m sure he’s worried.

Thomas.

I just found out the reason that Governor of Florida Charlie Crist hasn’t been resoundingly endorsed by every Republican voter and politician for the vice president spot. Far be it from me to judge a guy by this criteria, but it will be a big factor when looking for a candidate that appeals to family values voters. Charlie Crist married 28 years ago, and got a divorce 1 year after that. He then never got married again. He has to contend rumours of being either: a) a homosexual, or; b) a cad. Neither go down well with the voters that he will be needing to bring in.

I’m not condemning the guy for being anything, just talking about the facts. It may be that neither of those are the case, and that he just is a career-devoted guy. But regardless of what I think, I suspect that the jury is still out on Crist for VP among the McCain campaign. This explains a little anyway - why not choosing him as VP, but still using him as a surrogate in Florida, which has been done to this point in time, is a better course of action. I guess we’ll see how this unfolds, but if Crist isn’t chosen, I expect that the main reason is because of this information.

Thomas.

Having rushed to blog about something, I have left myself nothing to blog about.

Few interesting polls have come out for the US election. Certainly not enough to write a whole post about.

I attended a funeral on Monday. A regular customer at work - having attended the golf course for many, many years. I had known him for ~8 years, and very well for the past 4 years. He was a very good guy, always friendly and cheery. He died of a heart attack, aged 58. I’ll miss him of a Saturday morning.

I went shopping for those last few things I’ll need for my trip. Nothing exciting. I then had pancakes with my mother for lunch at a restaurant she used to take me and my sister as children. The pancakes were good, the company was better. I then brought my Godson a present for his first communion which is happening this Saturday. I’m the tiniest bit annoyed I will miss it, though not so much that it will weigh on my mind.
He’s a good kid, my Godson, and has quite the future ahead of him in terms of sports and academics.

I started collection addresses for those people I want to send postcards to. I’ll SMS a few of the remaining people who aren’t online for theirs. I also need to find out how much it costs to send postcards from the US to Australia so that they actually make it. I also need to send a postcard from here to the US before I go to my friend in New York. I also need to buy them a present or two. Hopefully they endear me to them, as these presents would only be given by an astute and observant listener.

I watched FightClub yesterday evening for the first time. I don’t know why people rave about it. It is average. See it to form your own opinion, but don’t expect much out of it, other than an obvious twist in the plot.

Last night I stayed up to watch Question Time only to be so bored and disappointed in it that I turned it off. It was the House of Representatives, and it’s the first time I’ve ever been bored with it since my interest in politics took off. If the Senate were on though, I would have watched it with wide eyes. I find myself wanting the Senate to be on, whereas I was wishing there were no Senate last year. I see that the Red Room is much more better to watch politics in action.

I’m getting tea with Andrew and the Pope tomorrow evening as St. Ives has other commitments, and I haven’t seen the Pope for some time. We will get Italian food, followed by dessert at their home so that I can see their parents.

On the other hand, tonight was the last chance that my family had for a dinner together. It ended up being my mother and I seeings that no one figured it out until I mentioned it to my mother this afternoon. Everyone has something planned between now and Friday. This was rather disappointing to me - that we didn’t have a meal together. We usually do, whether it’s me going on an extended trip or my father going away for a few days on work.

I’m waiting for a message from another friend to catch up one last time before we go. I’m actually comparably excited to see this friend as I am to go on holiday. Although, saying that I’m waiting on a message, truth of the matter is that I might see them before I go. We never made definite plans. If they were to message me, I would try my best to get to them. I expect that spending time with them will also calm my nerves significantly, as they are on edge at the moment and this person has that effect. I have a feeling that they will message to meet on Thursday.

And on Thursday, I’m getting lunch with my grandparents and mother (they are my mother’s parents). My grandfather, from this half of the grandparents, went with me to Europe last February. By the end of that trip, we were on each other’s nerves, and once we were home, didn’t see each other for roughly 2 and a half months. I had a feeling that the holiday had done damage to our friendship - both to blame. However, eventually we “made up” and now are better company for one-another now than we were before the trip. I am eager to see them before I go because they are simply good people and great company - certainly they will be able to calm me down a little, much like my friend I am hoping to see.

I am dreading saying farewell to anyone this week. As much as it might only be a month, I am no good at goodbyes and what-have-you. Generally, you say goodbye to people you surround yourself with. You surround yourself with people you want to see. And you want to see people that you like. Saying goodbye to people that I like and want to see, for me (and even for a week), is a little hard. Call me emotional, call me pathetic, but that’s the case.

I have to decide which book(s) I want to take on my trip. Certainly The Catcher in the Rye, but then do I also want to take The Adventures of Tom Swayer too? It is a good book, one of my favourites, and short enough to read. I am, however, partway through Colossus by Niall Ferguson (I never was able to juggle it with my university work this past semester) and would really like to finish that before I get swamped again. There are also other fiction (Paradise Lost) and non-fiction (The Sociological Bent) books that I am currently getting through (for various reasons - P.L. because it is a great work, S.B. for a blog post) that I want to keep reading to not lose rhythm. I’ll decide the night before.

Hmmm. That was a pretty easy blog post - a few sentences on various things going through my head at the moment. And it totaled more that 1000 words.

Thomas.

The latest round of state polls have come out. Let’s start with traditionally liberal and blue Washington (11EV). I felt the need to write ‘traditionally liberal and blue’ because it seems that some people have forgotten this fact - importantly, John McCain. He included Washington in his list of swing states and states that he would plug resources in to win. Either he was given the worst advice so far in this campaign or it was a horrible bluff to try and draw Barack Obama away from real swing states and back towards his base. Either way, the polls prove which way Washington will go come November. The last 5 polls from Washington had Obama leading by double-figures. This is no different, with a 15% lead - 55% to 40%. This is a blue state, and another lock for Obama.

Another poll from New Hampshire (4EV) comes our way because pollsters still think this state to be a battleground because of McCain’s popularity there, and its recent trend of getting bluer. This is also the second straight poll to have a double-figure lead for Obama. This one is 11% - 50% to 39%. Two months ago, McCain led the polls at 10%, then last month Obama got it to just a 5% lead. At this rate, the state will end up being the bluest of blues. Important to note, Obama wins among women by 16% and men by 7%, and most importantly independents by 15% - 50% to 35%.

California (55EV) is a huge state that the Democrats are extremely lucky to have a lock on. The latest poll has Obama 12% ahead of McCain - 53% to 41%. This poll is newsworthy because it shows Obama with a huge lead among the Hispanic vote - a 39% lead at 65% to 26%. The other demographics are the white vote where Obama has a lead in all of them - a 60% lead among the African-American vote, 80% to 20%, and a 41% lead among “other”, 68% to 27%. Again, Obama is winning among women by 33%. The pollsters here tested for the best VP pick, with Obama getting Bill Richardson and McCain getting New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Neither are likely, Bloomberg certainly not. McCain had mentioned about trying to compete in California, but he won’t run a single ad or stop in once now that he has to defend his home base as well as establish footing in swing states.

Next door is Nevada (5EV), and McCain has a razor lead over Obama - 3% (inside the margin of error) at 45% to 42%. These smaller states are the ones that will decide the race, and why Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Missouri are extremely important here. It should be noted that in May, McCain had a 6% lead in Nevada, so much like New Hampshire, it is drifting away from McCain. Whether it will drift as much and as fast as New Hampshire remains to be seen. It probably will, given the demographics. As for how they reported in the poll, McCain wins men by 14%, Obama wins women by 8%. The gender gap here is pretty obvious - a 22% difference between them. This state will stay close, but should end up Obama’s way.

Returning to Iowa (7EV), for the past 17 polls, Obama has been leading. This latest one is no different - a 4% lead (on the margin of error) at 49% to 45%. This figure is false, or at least will be no where near where the final result is. The poll has McCain winning the African-American vote by 10% - 55% to 45%. Obama’s lead in this poll will be slightly larger, but because the African-American vote generally makes up 2% of the total vote in Iowa, it won’t be much bigger.

Colorado (9EV) is a state that has gone Republican for the past 3 elections. Obama plans to hit it with a lot of cash and hit it hard. The latest poll, in line with the trend of having an Obama lead, puts McCain 2% behind - 43% to 41%. This will be, like Iowa and Nevada and New Mexico (all these states I’m saying will decide the election), a close race, but should go Obama’s way.

And now we get to my favourite poll for the weekend - Georgia (15EV). It is a statistical tie, with McCain on a 1% lead - 4% to 43%. This will fall into the same basket as North Carolina - a disaster! No one thought that the state would come into play, even when Obama said his campaign would target it. It was always going to be a ‘distraction state’, again, like North Carolina, that pulled McCain and Republican resources away from real swing states. It looks like, in the process of doing this that, Obama has actually brought the state into play. Yes, like North Carolina. Obama and his campaign said that they were targeting the state not as a distraction but as serious, based on their own internal numbers. Bu no one believed them, and wrote it off.

Georgia is now in play. If Obama won all of Kerry’s states (which he can easily do) and Georgia, Obama wins. It’s another North Carolina. I’m sorry to keep repeating that line, but it’s the case - traditional Republican state being brought into play by a stellar candidate and a lot of money. Whether the state will go blue or red is hard to say based of one poll. See how it is 2 months after the conventions and then we will be able to predict it. Anyway, Georgia is no longer a McCain lock, it’s a swing state. Much more of this and McCain won’t have to worry about defending the base and can compete in as many swings states as he likes - because his entire base will be swing states! This will be a hard-fought race here.

I might point out here that I regularly mention Obama’s standing among women in the polls because it continues to add ammunition to the argument against adding Clinton to the ticket. Obama is winning women rather healthy at the moment. It can improve and it will improve once the issues are brought onto the table. Clinton isn’t needed on the ticket to win them. Most have been won over, more will be won over, and the ones who are never won over would never have been won over with or without Clinton.

Thomas.

Over the weekend, it actually set in - the nerves and the trepidation over this holiday. Not long ago, I wasn’t remotely nervous. But then around last Friday I started getting a bit jittery, and then Saturday when I first started telling customers at work that I wouldn’t be there next week (and, credit to the ones I like, they were actually interested and wished me well), and then I caught up with my friends for the evening, where we played video games, got some food out, played some blackjack, and went bowling, it set in.

This is the first holiday I’ve gone on my own - no family, no friends, no family that I’m going to see overseas. I’ll be meeting a friend over there, but I have to get through my tour first. The friends who were there on Saturday would have noticed that Thomas was in a strange mood. I was … well … feeling a little wary. Maybe even a little scared. My boisterous and over-the-top demeanor wasn’t at full force. I was rather tame I think. Well, there were probably two reasons for that (as Andrew, who was in attendance, will know), but one of them was certainly the holiday.

Today, my last day at work, when I woke up I was worse that Saturday. It’s getting very weird. When I got in to work, I worked so hard and so fast just to distract myself from thinking about the holiday. Not that I don’t want to be, but I’m so excited and nervous about it that I lose focus. Then, and it was probably the most wonderful thing to happen to me at work, I got a card from one of my fellow employees who had filled it out along with the rest of the people who work there. I was told later that a couple of people said “Why? He’s only going a month?” - true. But the gesture from the people who didn’t complain will not go unrewarded.

Importantly, my boss signed it without complaint. Almost eager to sign it I was told. He also sincerely wished me a good trip and requested I stay safe because I would have a job waiting for me, one which they needed me in. I don’t regularly toot my own horn … yes I do. And that’s another example of it.

I went and saw Phantom, as blogged here, and when I left the house with the family (my parents and sister went with me) I was … well … social with them. It was a good time - because, weighing on my mind, was the fact that I was going on this holiday. The car trip in, the standing around and waiting, the intermission, then tea, the walk around, and the drive home were all hassle-free (which is very rare), humour-filled (even rarer), and enjoyable (once in a million years). Both my parents were acting the same way as before my European holiday last year, so I suspect they might be feeling the same as I am. Maybe worse - their eldest venturing out to do something on his own. A first out of their children.

Anyway, I don’t know how much worse the nerves will get from here on in. I suspect that it will get worse after I get tea with Andrew and the Pope, and then meet up with another friend through the week for lunch, then have that ‘farewell’ dinner that is planned for myself, my parents, and sister. Who knows how bad it will be at the airport. I hope once I get through the gate I will be able to put it aside and embrace the excitement and the experience. I should be able to.

Thomas.

I’ll be packing my suitcase for my trip Thursday night. Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, some of them handy tricks that I picked up after my many trips.

First, my mind works best when it’s under the pump. Whether it’s an exam and I need to study for it, or an assessment due in the next day, or anything else that is time sensitive, I always to the most and best work when I’m pushing the time limit. The same goes for packing - I’m more likely to remember things, more likely to arrange things better for space, I’m more logical in figuring out what I will and won’t need, etc. I’ll have a look through and mentally note what I will need, but my case won’t be zipped up to leave until the early morning hours of Friday.

Second, I have an afternoon flight, which means I land in L.A. at 10am. This is the sort of flight that causes awful jet lag. I will hardly sleep any of this, on a normal sleeping cycle, because it for a lot of the flight, the sun will be up still. But regardless of that, you have to be extremely tired and/or desensitised to the whole flying experience to get significant sleep to counteract the jet lag. As a result, while I’m packing my bag the night before, I’m cutting out sleep time. I’ll wake up early, have only had 4 hours sleep, and get on the plane ready to doze after the stopover in Auckland.

Third, you get the latest weather information the day before. Now, you might think this prudent if you’re holidaying for a whole month. It might be to an extent, but if the forecast says “L.A. will have heavy downpours today, and that system will move East through the week” I should anticipate “heavy downpours” and pack for that instead of for light rain that could be expected in Summer. Like I said, handy hints.

Fourth, our washing cycle, in this house, for clothes, is majority of it done on Wednesday. That way, I can throw in everything of mine that needs cleaning, it will dry through Wednesday/Thursday, and come Thursday night, I have everything to choose from. I certainly would not take a dirty shirt, or a jacket, or jeans that hadn’t been washed. I know this might sound prudent too, seeings how I’ll be living out a suitcase for a month, but you’d be surprised how many times I’ve wanted to take a clothing item, but couldn’t because it needed cleaning.

Fifth, if (like me) you take things that require charging from an electricity source, I save them up to the day day prior of travel, plug them all in, and they are finished by the end of the day. I only once ever forgot to charge something before travel, and I vowed to never make that mistake again. By the time I’m ready to pack the hand-luggage (which is where all my electronics go generally), all my things have been charged and they can go away with my mind at ease. This works especially well for mobile phones, because you might use them through the day. Who is really going to call you at 2am?

That’s really it for my packing habits. But now, at least, the people who are most likely to ask why I leave it so late to pack will have enough answers for their question.

Thomas.

I just walked in from seeing The Phantom of the Opera at Star City. It’s the third time I’ve seen it, once when I was rather young and once overseas. Both of those times were before year 10 - sub-14 years old, and over 6 years ago. I have little memory of those showing’s details, but do remember that it was rather ho-hum.

Then the film came out, and I quite liked it. I know that people criticised it for the actor’s singing, that it looses its ‘feel’ as a Hollywood production, etc. But I liked it nonetheless. After watching it a few times I thought it to be better than the stage production. Maybe it was because I had seen it more recent, maybe it’s because I had seen the film version as an adult, or maybe it’s because my appreciation for the story had developed, but I preferred the film more.

Anyway, after the curtain went down on the performance tonight, I had quickly changed my mind. I now see that the performance far surpasses the film version if only because there’s something far more special in seeing live theatre. I’m no theatre critic, and one might have negative things to say about the show I saw (or Phantom in general), but I liked what I saw quite a bit. It was extremely enjoyable, albeit the whole ‘theatre atmosphere’ that I was brought up in as a child, seems to have taken a slide down middle-class slope. I could go on a snobbery-filled rant here, but I’ll hold myself back. Yes! Thomas is showing restraint - how bizarre!

I think I enjoyed it more because I was better able to appreciate it as a performance, better relate to the story, and with a working knowledge of the techniques employed (all things I learned in later high school and university, so I guess all that effort payed off for once) . I was more engaged with the story, whereas as a kid (or early teenager) you’re used to films and television, and engagement wasn’t a skill I possessed at the time. I understood the story in different terms, and thought it extremely poignant. Though, that might just be me.

This isn’t an overly long post because it’s rather hard to write (for me) the sort of post for this as I would a film. Also, I accept that the theatre is a very quirky thing, in terms of taste, attendance, and review. And I am certainly out of my depth in all 3 of those categories. And thus, anything I might say positive or negative could be an invite for e-attack. So I’ll leave it at this: I liked the show very much, and on that criteria alone, I recommend seeing it.

Thomas.