In a former life, I was a pollster …

Returning to my party of choice for the moment, the Democrat race for the ticket is beginning to shape up as a do-or-die situation. What does this mean? Well, I’ll let some poll data do the explaining first.

Cook/RT Strategies have Clinton with only a 13 point margin lead on Obama (36 : 23) winning the overall primaries. Gallup has the margin at 22 points (47 : 25). Taking in a few others I read, on the average Clinton has a 17 point lead on Obama, and near to double on Edwards (21 point lead for Clinton over him, 10 point lead for Obama). So, on holistic polls, Clinton has a comfortable lead.

However, we need to look at the early states in the race to gauge what possible momentum could arise. Let’s take Iowa; the first state in the process. If Clinton had a similar lead to the above polls there to, you would write off Obama as a distant second. However, Newsweek has Obama with a 4 point lead there, Strategic Vision (a ‘Republican’ poll) has Clinton with a 2 point lead ahead of Edwards, and LA Times/Bloomberg has Clinton ahead by 5 points, again ahead of Edwards. It’s a very tight race there, especially considering the difference between Obama and Edwards in all of the aforementioned polls that they trail Clinton is between 1 and 4 points.

For anyone who wins an early state, you have to consider the momentum that can be gained from that. If Obama were to win that, that would put him in a very good position to peg back those double-figure leads Clinton has on him. I would say Edwards is positioned too far behind for the momentum to do anything, but never say never. Of course, if he loses Iowa, he may as well just pull out then and there.

Nevada, the second early state, has Obama, on average, behind by 17 points. If he could make ground, and grind that figure down to something like that of 12 or less before voting starts, then there’s a distinct chance that he has picked up his second early state, and could more easily go onto South Carolina (the fourth step, and the next paragraph), getting more momentum and more of a swing than anticipated nation-wide.

In New Hampshire, the third in the process, Clinton has a 21 point lead on Obama by the averages, so taken now, she would win. And that is a hefty lead to peg back from winning Iowa or Nevada (or both). So, instead of focusing on, what is in all likelihood, a lost race, Obama may well head to South Carolina to pick up the votes there. There Obama trails by between 18 and 8 points to Clinton. Take the average of 12, and the Iowa momentum could propel him toward real close single figures early, and a lead towards the day.

And here’s where it all helps Obama the most. He trails Clinton, on average, by 24 points in both Florida and California. If he is able to peg back the 12 votes in South Carolina, the 17 points in Nevada, and come out with a strong vote count in both these states, and having won three states early on, there’s a very good chance he could move to within single figures in both of these voter-rich states.

Pennsylvania, a later state, has Obama behind by 17 points, on average, since July of this year (lower if you go further). Winning Florida or California would put him into a position where he could take this big state as well, and I believe he will move to 15 points or lower before the vote starts there anyway. He’s set up for a similar fight in Pennsylvania as with Nevada and South Carolina, but with the added benifits of time and momentum from the starts of the race.

In Michigan, Clinton has a 16 point lead on Obama, so it’s an identical race there. And a lot of votes. Need I bring it up again? Momentum?

So, at the end of the day, what are my ramblings meant to say? Well, two things really. One, that the holistic polls don’t reflect momentum that could propel an early winner to the lead. The next thing, that my man Obama, while there were some doubts about him last month (something that I should have blogged about), is still in a very good position to make a showing of himself. Oh, and don’t write off Edwards, though do get out the pens.

I’m in the mood for this sort of stuff at the moment, so expect a post about presidential head-to-heads in the next few days. I suppose it might be because a whole bunch of data was released over the past few days, and there was a lot through September.

Thomas.

Thomas blogged again! Spread the word!

While I’ve been the most neglectful blogger this side of Mr. Rabbit (who has certainly out-posted me for this month), I hope to make amends for this problem starting now. While Mr. Rabbit’s advice was to start early on assignments to get them done quicker, and not be stuck doing them the night before, it actually proved to be a problem in terms of blogging time. Once I finished my first assignment, I started my next, even though there was two weeks between the due dates. And, within the next few days, I’ll be starting my final assignment before exams. But I do intend to keep blogging through October.

The root of the problem was that I was so engrossed in the assignment due on Tuesday. US foreign policy through the Cold War. It was a research assignment, so I got to write my own question, however, only having done so after finding a heap of primary sources that I could work with. Those sources were seven inauguration speeches, nine State of the Union addresses, six special addresses to Congress, and three de-classified government documents. Of course, there was the obligatory Wikipedia pages and Google search results (sometimes scholar), but most of it was contained in the primary sources.

For anyone not interested in Cold War history, US history, US foreign policy, US relations with Latin America, South America and the Middle East between the end of WWII and 1991, then the assignment will be exceedingly boring. However, for a political junkie and a history major, this assignment was a dream. Hopefully it pulls in the marks that I want it to, however, I am worried that I extended the scope too far, and some of the in-depth material I could have included had I only followed my question in relation to one president could have been included.

The month gone has been interesting in parts. Yesterday afternoon was Mr. and Mrs-to-be St. Ives Correspondent’s engagement party, which was very nice. There were some rousing speeches given, complete with an early medical history of the happy couple. I also got to meet (for the second time, though she didn’t seem to remember) St. Ives Correspondent’s mother, to whom I sucked up to greatly and, purely because the opportunity presented itself, embarrassed St. Ives Correspondent some more. There is a sort of running joke concerning St. Ives Correspondent and his mother with me, one that I may go into further one day …

The food was great, and the cake was excellent. As too were the heart-shaped cookies – anyone who could make them for me (not necessarily in the shape of a heart) would move up in my books.

Also yesterday, the group was told an amazing story from the Ombudsman. Mr. Rabbit reserved blogging rights, so look out for that story there.

I was at university during the APEC hoo-haa, and scribbled down, while I was flanked by 100+ police officers, the makings of a post. But I went a re-read it the other day and it seems quite redundant now. Perhaps when I have nothing to do in the holidays I’ll write it up, but certainly not before then.

This house was alive and well while the South Sydney Rabbitohs were kicking into the final series. My father is a staunch Rabbits man, and brought me up to follow them – something I did until I realised I didn’t like Rugby League. However, I went to their last game before the finals, and the experience there was something very unique. Blog-worthy indeed.

I’ve been plowing through the TV series of The West Wing. I will definitely be posting something about that later on. So too will I get around to writing up a summary of the last ratings season. I thought I had a lot more time for that, however, all the TV stations have decided to ‘fast track’ all the shows I watch, so that they are a week or so behind the airings in the US. While I absolutely love this idea, I have had no chance to write up about the last seasons.

Of course, I expect the admonishing for not having finished my version of the Great Menindee Trip will continue, and as I do want it to not be the last thing I hear on my deathbe, I will get around to finishing that. Mine will be complete with photos and video, so nerr!

I’ve requested an interview from a running independent (as soon as the election is called) in the Australian election, where I hope to discuss policy. Maybe that wil go ahead.

I’ve also seen quite a few movies in the past month (none at the cinemas), though there are roughly ten or so movie I want to see going through to February next year, so more fuel for the fire.

There are half a dozen or so drafts I have hidden, and a few dot points written on my desk for posts as well. So all the makings are there for a very productive next few months. Whether I have lost the little creditability and ability to have people believe in me after posting something like three times this month, I guess we’ll see …

Thomas.

Another side note …

My last post, about Ron Paul, was insanely popular over the intertubes. I had the most views on a single post, the most one-day total views, and it still brings in viewers. The post has been Digged many many times, and has just been a real hit.

So, like my former Al Gore post, I’ll just drop the name Ron Paul frequently to bring in the hits.

Thomas.

Ron Paul: The only Republican you could get behind

Just like the Democratic primaries race, the Republican race has three big names, and a bunch of nobodies taking up space. Rudy Giuliani is to Hilary Clinton, as Mitt Romney is to John Edwards, as Fred Thompson is to Barack Obama. At least in terms of perception. I still maintain that Mitt Romney will win the primaries race (and stand the best chance of winning the presidential election), but in the words of wise and sage Yoda …

“There is another …”

No, there isn’t a secret brother or sister of any of the Republican candidates, I’m talking about one of those ‘waste of debate space’ people that pop up every now and then. Ron Paul. Dr. Ron Paul actually, but I resent calling people a doctor, so I’m calling him Ron. He’s massively popular across the Internet (perhaps as much as Obama?) and scores highly in polls aimed at younger voters, moderate-to-centre Republicans and, yeah, ones conducted online.

Having recently studied more than a handful of the founding Republicans and earliest Republican presidents, I’m beginning to see why Paul rates well. He isn’t an extremist (of either side) in his party. He isn’t even a moderate. He is a traditional Republican. Now, I suspect some people have, by now, thought that right-wing extremists are the traditional members of the GOP. Unfortunately that’s the type of candidate that’s been produced over the past ten years. What we have now is an open-floor as to what a Republican actually looks like.

Giuliani is a left leaning Republican, Fred Thompson is Reagan 2.0, and Mitt Romney is from the religious-right (though not exactly of the proper religion). From that snapshot, who knows what the next round of ‘true’ Republicans will look like.

However, with Ron Paul, he looks exactly like the founders of the GOP. He’s a conservative, in favour of the free market and lower taxes (in fact, he has never voted once to raise taxes in his Representative career beginning in 1997). He opposes the war in Iraq (which already puts him offside) and has regularly spoken out a war with Iran (which puts him further offside) in which America is the aggressor. In fact, Ron Paul hearkens so far back to the early Republican Party that he espouses the non-interventionist foreign policy that President Washington so fondly loved.

He’s voted consistently, and backed each of his votes with the proper rhetoric. He voted against the war in Iraq, and has continued to speak out against it. He’s like Senator McCain in this regard, only not nearly as stupid: McCain voted for the war and still sings its praises.

The worst part is that for Ron Paul, being such a stalwart and ‘Founding Fathers’-based candidate, he has bee marginalized and deemed a fringe member. What has happened to the GOP when someone so closely aligned in policy to George Washington, to the Founding Fathers, to the policies that built America, can be deemed ‘fringe’. I thought the Republican Party stood up for what America was, and what it should be. Shouldn’t it be a country that continues what it was built upon?

And if all that wasn’t enough, Paul has come out saying that he would overturn the appalling Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act of 2006, and scrap everything that is ‘Homeland Security’ for something infinitely better. No more illegal warrants, no more illegal wire taps, and no more illegal arrests. These really sound like the rhetoric of a Democrat in this day and age.

Of course, it’s a sad indictment on the current state of America that only one political party should be talking about not committing crimes against its people.

Anyway, that’s Ron Paul for you in a quick blog post. There’s a lot more out there on him, and Google is your master for that task. And while I’m firmly behind the Democrats (and, of all the announced candidates, Obama) if it were a Paul versus anyone election come 2008, I wouldn’t be so displeased.

Thomas.

Yes I’m still alive …

I’ve been busy with uni work. I took Mr. Rabbit’s advice to heart and started working on assignments before the night before.

On a quick note: now everyone can say they actually know someone who brought one of these. I’m wearing it right now. I plan to wear it quite often as well. Not as a show of support for Rudd per se, more of a show of my complete self-disregard.

Thomas.

This is what keeps me from blogging more …

Teachers, ex-teachers and people involved with education: I’m talking to you!

It’s very rare that I ask anything of anyone (rare in that usually I’m demanding, not asking), but here is an occasion where I am.

I’m conducting a research project, and have a survey that I need to have filled out. While I certainly have respondents available at university, I’m looking to get more than just the opinions of Sydney University undergraduates in EDUF2007. To that end, I emplore you to find some time, for the sake of my marks, and email me/comment this post saying that you would be happy. The survey wouldn’t take more than 10 minutes for basic responses (something I am happy to recieve). I’ll email it to you to fill out and we can all be happy when you email it back.

To those of the sojourn group your: I’ll be giving three (maybe four) of you a copy on Wednesday. I’ll even supply a pen!

Thank-you to anyone who does help me out here. To those who choose not to … well … we’ll see who’s laughing last when I hunt you down …

Thomas.