The Obama Wagon gets a bit more full

The delegate count for the Democrats changed today, and there wasn’t even a (as yet) counting vote cast. Superdelegates and delegates, after Bill Richardson dropped out and polls have come in, as well as the regular influences, have been shuffling around, and now it looks like this:

• Hillary Clinton: 190
• Barack Obama: 103
• John Edwards: 51
• Dennis Kucinich: 1

As you can see, Obama has picked up quite a few here. 25 actually, from the last count. And Clinton has only picked up 9. Edwards has actually lost one. So from the looks of things, Obama is making impressions on the superdelegates with his campaign. I think that Clinton had already gained as many as she could without campaigning, while people were hesitant to commit to Obama because they were afraid Clinton was the sure-fire lock, and didn’t want to fall out of favour. Now that Obama is a good chance of winning the nomination, he is getting the superdelegates that he would have had since the start.

From now though, I suspect that these superdelegates are officially undecided and waiting for events to unfold. I expect to see a few more back Obama if he wins Nevada (which the polls, of late, indicate he will) and South Carolina (which he has always been competitive, or leading the polls), considering the demographics there.

Thomas.

Mitt Romney wins in Michigan

Yes, Mitt Romney wins the Republican Michigan primary, and now no one has a clue what’s going to happen. The first three states (ignoring Wyoming) have delivered three different winners. Michigan exit-polls indicate that the economy was the biggest factor in their decisions. Iowa generally reports differently, and New Hampshire was because McCain has them around his finger. If it’s going to come down to each state’s ‘important issue’, then it’s going to be a three-way tie between these three I suspect.

Which means floor fight! Whooo!

If Romney stays with his message, that he’s not a Washington cronie and an astute businessman, then the economy factor is his own, and he could win the race. No one can really challenge him on this. If Guiliani’s plan comes to fruition (only focusing on the ‘big states’) then the race turns into a four-way tie. If McCain can salvage his second place finish and keep on target, he is still in it. Huckabee came from nowhere, so it will be interesting how he approaches his new-found popularity to try and win this thing.

Romney is the most organised out of the candidates at this point too, as well as the most funded. Giuliani is unfocused and a pseudo-race runner.  Huckabee doesn’t seem to have been prepared for his push into the limelight, plus he was only a fringe candidate for the most part, so there’s no way he is established enough to easily win this race. McCain could be the only challenger, though given the shmozzle his campaign was mid-last year, what with turning over staff weekly, running out of funds, and not even measuring second in opinion polls, I can see him trailing off again.

It’s all up in the air for the Republicans, and it’s been a while since a Republican primary was this close. It’s going to be a great view for the observers.

Thomas.