February 9th – LA, NE, WA, Vi

Seeings as how I probably won’t be able to do a semi-in-depth recap of the states that are voting today/tomorrow in the Democrat’s primaries, I thought I’d do a pre-vote review of the states, and explain why results might go certain ways. I paid special attention to Washington because that will be the most competitive state (that Obama should win), and I wanted to pay one state enough detail so that you all can understand how the pre-vote analysis goes for me.

Louisiana is the only primary on. And it’s a primary that Barack Obama is pegged to win. The population there has a significant African-American population, and considering Obama has regularly pulled 80%+ of the ‘black’ vote, I would consider him a lock. This all said, there is no polling data out on the state, so anything stated is an educated guess. Educated on the fact that Hillary Clinton’s strong demographics are weak in the state. There are 56 delegates tied to the vote, and I suspect Obama will get more than half of them. If he starts to push 65%+ then it will be a very successful primary for him. There are also 12 superdelegates from Louisiana, and I have a feeling that the vote on the ground will have an impact on where they go.

Nebraska is one of the two caucuses to vote on the 9th. This state is traditionally a Republican state. Funnily enough, Obama has gone very well in traditionally Republican states that have caucuses (no, that’s not a joke). From that basis alone, as again there is no polling data out for Nebraska either, this is pegged as an Obama win. But not just because it’s a caucus, or a Republican state, but because Obama absolutely hammered Clinton in next door Kansas on Super Tuesday. The vote in Kansas was 74% Obama, 26% Clinton. Obama walked away 23 delegates, Clinton just the 9.

But most importantly, for a caucus state, you need to have excellent organisation to win. Obama has proven time and time again that his organisation in the states that Clinton has neglected (intentionally or otherwise), and his organisation in states that Clinton has competed for, is superior. Obama’s ground team, his grassroots movement, and the structure of his state staff has made him a formidable caucus opponent. He gets people to the meetings. Clinton does not, and that’s why Nebraska should be his by the close of day. With 24 delegates tied to the caucus vote, a big win is required to get more than just half a handful of delegates back on Clinton. I also think that the 7 superdelegates from Nebraska will follow the way of the vote, and if that’s the case, winning the caucus is really important.

Washington is the next state we’re looking at. It’s the second of the two caucuses to meet, and while it stands a very good chance of being an Obama victory, it also has the makings there of being a close race. See, it’s a caucus, and as I said above, Obama performs very well in caucuses – he is better organise, and has better turnouts. Obama’s recent 20,000+ attended rally in Seattle is promising too. Similarly, it’s traditionally a Democrat state, and being the more liberal of the two senators, Obama would be more favoured there on policy terms. So while Obama is popular there and can get the people to go to the caucus meetings, Clinton has a strong demographic base there.

The ‘Asian’ vote in Washington is reportedly huge. In 2005, it was reported to be at 7.69% of the total population. The state has the fifth largest Asian-American population of the U.S. The state also can lay claim to another record – the first state to elect an Asian-American Governor, Gary Locke. The ‘Latino’ vote, too, is proportionally large – 8.16%. Of course, not all of these people can vote, but compare them to the African-American 4.45%. Obama starts, in terms of minority votes, on the back foot. The state is 50.2% female, and while the Democratic party has more women turnout for it, I don’t think it will be as high as some of the Super Tuesday states given this figure. 11.2% of the population are 65 or older – a figure that might also make a few brows sweat. Interesting enough, 25% of the population reported as being ‘non-religious’ – well above national averages, and the highest figure for any U.S. state.

So what can we see? Clinton has the ‘Asian’ vote, the ‘Latino’ vote, and the 65+ vote in play for her. Obama doesn’t have much of a ‘black’ vote to help him, but a more even male-to-female turnout, and the ‘non-religious’ vote will boost his chances. Similarly, the state was the 14th grossing state in the U.S. in 2005, meaning that more of the citizens are financially better off than many other states. This helps Obama out again, as he has been winning the upper-middle/upper class vote, while Clinton has won the lower class votes. And, again, it’s a caucus, and Obama is better organised.

One other thing I wanted to speak about, and I mentioned it before. Washington is, traditionally, a Democrat state. It used to be, internally, split by a mountain range in there called the Cascade Mountains. What is West of them was rather liberal (most notably, those suburbs that form the I-5 Corridor around Interstate 5), while the East was generally conservative in vote. Spokane is Washington’s second largest city, and is located East of the Cascade Mountains, making it the biggest East-Washington state. Recent voting there has tended to go liberal. Maria Cantwell, the now Democratic Senator for the area, was voted in by a huge margin against Republican Mike McGavick. And the state has voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate since, and including, 1998.

So, all that is saying what could have simply been said in this: Washington will be the closest race of them all. There are many factors at play there, but in the end, I believe that Obama will win the state. There are 78 delegates tied to the vote, so a big margin would be very nice to help establish significant gains. The 19 superdelegates I don’t think will follow the vote.

Oh, nearly forgot. The U.S Virgin Islands. Primary voting. 3 delegates tied to the vote. 6 superdelegates. Who wins this primary is anyone’s guess. I’ll call Obama, just to throw you a real curve-ball.

And that’s all of the states/territories up for grabs on the 9th. As you can see, 2 are expected to go Obama’s way, one will be a contest, which I hope eventually goes to Obama too, and one is a place that few people have ever heard of. I’m very interested to see these results come in to see how the race is shaped now: How Super Tuesday changed things.

Thomas.

Virginia and Maryland polls – Democrats

It’s now with a learned suspicion that I report on the latest round of polls to be release concerning the next states up for grabs in the Democratic primaries. Two Virginia polls came out, and they both pointed to an easy Barack Obama win. The first, conducted by the Insider Advantage, has Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 15 points – 52% to 37%. All the data for that one was taken on the 7th, so a little less than 2 days after Super Tuesday. The second poll was taken by SurveyUSA, and that has Obama up by 20 points to Clinton – 59% to 39%.

It’s interesting to note that while the Insider Advantage poll has an 11% uncommitted report, the SurveyUSA poll has only 2% for their uncommitted. It’s a somewhat strange disparity. The percentage of the lead is, but not exactly notable. You see, you only have to gather polling data in 2 different suburbs and you’re going to get different data. Both of these polls had over 500 respondents, which are higher than a lot of other polls that get flaunted. So the data is going to be somewhat reliable. But the difference in the uncommitted vote is very strange. Especially considering the wide margins Obama is leading by. You would think that it would be one or the other, too, at this point in time.

The second state to get polled was Maryland. Back in January, from the 6th to the 9th, the Baltimore Sun conducted a poll which showed Obama leading Clinton by 13 points even then – 39% to 26%. The 35% that is unaccounted for there is split between John Edwards, who was still running at the time, and the genuine uncommitted vote. That data would have been gathered after Iowa, and may very well have been suffering from the New Hampshire effect (where the polls for that state went up ridiculously high, only to see Obama lose the state). More recently though, SurveyUSA has released a poll on Maryland with data gathered from the 7th to the 8th of February. So this too is in the wake of Super Tuesday, though allowing 3 some days for respondents to digest all the information from the 5th. This poll has Obama leading by 19 points – 52% to 33%. This means that there’s a 15% uncommitted here.

Again, I see that 15% as rather high, given the state and the state of the race. It could just be that the old Edwards supporters still haven’t found a home in Obama or Clinton, and combine that with the genuine uncommitted. If trends are anything to go by, Obama will eat up 55%-60% of the Edwards supporters, taking away as much as 8% or 9% of that 15%. This would push him to a 60%+ number, giving him three-fifths of the delegates, and Clinton just two-fifths. With 70 delegates up for grabs (the state has 99: 70 tied to the vote, and 29 superdelegates (quite a lot of superdelegates I think)), a wide margin is good. Going on the three-fifths/two-fifths calculation, 42 would go Obama’s way, 28 to Clinton. And, again, after the vote, there would be a further 29 superdelegates up for grabs (assuming none have endorsed anyone yet – a fact not likely). With a difference, the gap would be closed, between the two, to a 50-something delegate difference including superedelegates.

And that’s going on Maryland being the very next stat. It isn’t: Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, and the U.S. Virgin Islands all come before it on the 9th – these results will be coming in tomorrow – with Maine on the 10th. Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. are all on the 12th. Maryland, then, could be the state that gives Obama the lead on Clinton. It’s a very real prospect.

And here’s a little factazoid for my readers: This is the first Saturday post I’ve written since the 22nd of December.

And here is something else for everyone: Tomorrow Andrew and I fly up to Queensland for a week. I’ll seek out an Internet connection to at least check the results of the primaries that are coming in. If it’s easily accessible (that is to say, free) then I’ll try and write a post about them. We touch back down in Sydney the evening of Sunday the 17th. But I won’t be totally absent from blogging to then. I really will endeavour to post something while I’m up there. So keep checking in!

Thomas.