Wisconsin – Democrat Results

The results from Wisconsin are still coming, but at 91% it’s been ruled another Barack Obama state. So far the margin is rather shocking, 17% at the moment, because a lot of the pundits are saying that the demographics in the state are pro-Hillary Clinton. But if you read my post yesterday, which read that there was a very good chance it would be a run-away victory for Obama, then you might not be so surprised at Obama’s win.

When CNN showed the results by the district, the state was nearly all Obama-blue (a navy blue). What was surprising to me though was that he won districts that were actually ones Clinton should have won – like the rural sectors. Yes, he even picked up rural votes more than Clinton did.

Other demographics that he picked up were men (61%), every age other than 65 and over, every ‘white’ category except 60 and over, both the college degree holders (60%) and non-college degree holders (56%), every church attendance regularity group, and split the women (50%). You expect to see a domination like this with a 17% margin of victory. What was interesting to note was the percentage of the male vote he won, and that he split the women. Hillary’s only regular demographic win is now the 60/65 and older group. They are the only ones who have stuck with her from the start.

In terms of delegate, Obama picks up 38, while Clinton only gets 27. Both are in progress it should be noted. This extends his lead on Clinton both in terms of pledged delegates and the overall count which includes superdelegates. If Obama can maintain a significant lead on the pledged delegates, he will win over more superdelegates, and probably the D.N.C. chair, who may end up deciding this race.

Similarly, the win in Wisconsin will vault Obama into a tight race in Texas and Ohio. These two are now both must win states for Clinton. And she has to win them both by double-digits. Nothing less that that. If she loses one, or splits that delegates in them, then she might as well drop out. After that, the race is heavily in Obama’s favour again. And not only that, but the leads she held in both those states for the week leading up to, and the entire year, means that anything that looks like a split result, or a single win for Obama, will be monumental for him.

And all this on the back of polls say that Obama is between 2% and 5% to Clinton in Texas. This would be very troubling news for Clinton, as she has been spending heaps of time and money in the state, while Obama paid his first visit to the state yesterday. These polls both came out before his visit and before his Wisconsin win. Also troubling is the news that the latest poll on Ohio has Clinton with just a 9% lead. If these results were what played out, a 5% win in Texas for Clinton, and a 9% win in Ohio for Clinton, she would still lose. She will have made minimal net gains in terms of pledged delegates, and the other two states on that day (Vermont and Rhode Island) have a good chance of going Obama’s way (Vermont) and being split as well (Rhode Island). Then we have another long list of pro-Obama states in the process. It’s a loss for her with these current results.

And what hurts her even more is that there is more than a week for Obama to bring the numbers close, or into his favour, in both Ohio and Texas. Statistics show that when Obama has long periods of time between primaries and caucuses, and has a chance to establish and sell himself to the state, that he fares much better than Clinton. He counters the name recognition that she benefits from there in no time, and quickly establishes himself. With the break between then and now, I would expect to see those polls come very close, and eventually slip into the grounds that Wisconsin showed before the election – an average 5% lead to Obama. And, if trends continue (the trend that when Obama has a small published poll lead, he ends up with a huge vote lead by the end of the count), he stands a very good chance of winning either Texas or Ohio, maybe even both.

So the Wisconsin win was extremely good on all front for Obama, and very bad for Clinton. Now we have to watch the board play out until the next encounter. There’s at least one debate (this Friday for us Australians, at 1pm), many rallies, and even more press conferences. It will be interesting. Very interesting indeed. The race is playing out exactly how many people, myself included, predicted and expected. The slow and methodical, rather than the flash bang variety. And we’re all the better for it.

Thomas.

Eventus stultorum magister – Part II

When we first arrived in Queensland, we had turned on the television, and I had put on the news channel in the hopes of catching up on some primary race news. There would be voting the next day, and I wanted to know what the candidates were up to. When the forecast for the weather came up for Queensland, we were slightly worried. It had a severe weather alert and the nasty, black cloud icon that is bucketing down with rain.

On the same day, Andrew called up his mother to tell her that he had arrived at the hotel in one piece, and their conversation, too, turned to weather. She read out a forecast that was similar in every respect – lots of rain. In fact, she said that we would be receiving the tail-end of a cyclone that day too.. It was on these two slices of information, plus a look out the window (which revealed a clouded horizon), that we decided we wouldn’t go to SeaWorld or MovieWorld on the Monday, rather we would wait till things looked better.

So, when I woke up Monday morning, the last thing I had expected to see we a clear, blue sky, a shining sun, and nothing but a pleasant day. I was rather annoyed that we weren’t experiencing The Day After Tomorrow weather, because it would have been the ideal day to attend a park that has the word ’sea’ in it. I decided to use the good weather to my advantage and headed down to the beach once more. Again, I dragged Andrew down so that maybe he would overcome whatever it was that was keeping him out the water. Suffice to say, nothing changed.

We headed back to get ready. I washed off and Andrew booked the bus for SeaWorld tomorrow. We had discussed that we couldn’t risk running out of days, or wait for a day that had ‘perfect’ weather. Once all that was done, we decided that another venture into town was needed – this time for lunch and some additional supplies. Andrew had no towel or sandals, so he intended to buy them. We had also discussed trying to find our way to Conrad Jupiters Casino so that we could go there for tea. We decided we would do this before we found a place to eat lunch.

We went to the main shopping centre there, and from there you need to get the monorail to the casino for $2. You can walk, as we saw on the trip over. We disembarked at the casino and looked around. My gosh it was a small casino. And a ‘casual casino’ to boot. No one was dressed up like Star City (though I’m happy to admit you see some real bums in Star City too), and the whole thing was tiny. The hotel itself was big, but the casino wasn’t. It was obvious that it was primarily a casino, and then there was this ‘casino’ tacked on. And yes, it is very 80s. I had been told so many different numbers to bet on in roulette by family/friends/customers that I could have covered the board. I didn’t gamble though (people are probably surprised at this), but Andrew did. We left, after he lost X dollars, to find a place for lunch. A $2 monorail trip back followed.

As we were walking around, looking for a restaurant, I was absolutely surprised when Andrew not only willing wanted to, but even ventured the option, to go to a restaurant called Mura Saki. It was a teppanyaki restaurant. In the back of my mind (as I had never been to a teppanyaki restaurant before) I had known that things get served with zucchini and sprouts. And, as I mentioned in the last post, Andrew refuses to eat greens for an unknown reason. So thus my surprise.

Taking a seat right in front of the griddle, we looked down the menu. I ordered sweet chili prawns (at what I now see is a very reasonable price: $14.95), while Andrew ordered (not surprisingly) sweet chili steak. When the sides came, I laughed: A simple garden salad, a soup with all sorts of things in it that look ‘green’, as well as some dipping sauces. This would be an interesting meal.

The chef came out and, no joke, his belt looked like it had come off the set of a western film. There were bullets lining it around, the gun holsters had been modified to hold knives, and the belt buckles was a giant, silver ace of spades. The guy gave us a nod, we nodded back and off he went. He did all his fang-dangle trick, throwing knives and canisters and what have you. It was very impressive. What I enjoyed that most was watching my food get cooked right in front of me.

The meal was extremely good to boot. Certainly worth the $15. I had eat the salad before the actual meal was finished. The soup was a great side to the meal, and the sauces really added flavour. Andrew ate his steak, and drank his Coke. We watched as another chef cooked for another pair, but he wasn’t as good as our guy ‘Tex’. We paid out bill, left a well deserved tip, and were off again.

This time we brought our supplies as the last thing we did, then walked a different way back to the apartment, a way that is parallel to the beach, though you can’t quite see it. I was rather surprised at how loud the beach actually was, to be honest with you. I had never given it much thought. Later that night, I would sit on the balcony of the apartment and listen to the ocean again. We were thirteen floors up, and it was very audible even there.

When we got back, as it was mid afternoon, we mulled around for a while. We watched some television and played some cards. Eventually it was a suitable time to head back  to the casino. We walked to the monorail station, where some people were (and I was totally over dressed in my semi-formal clothes), rode in, and hit the floor. Of course, our I.D.’s were checked. The woman on duty (who looked mean, angry, and tired) checked Andrew’s card, and he walked off without so much as a thank-you. When it came to me, she said “Doesn’t your friend talk?”, so obviously put out by his lacking thank-you. I laughed out loud, as anyone who takes part in the Sojourn Group’s events might know that Andrew isn’t a mute.  I apologised for him, then went on through. We looked around, then brought something at the bar, sat around and drank those (all the while, I was people watching – and boy were there some people I wish I wasn’t watching), before Andrew wanted to gamble.

We found a Blackjack table (the only game I play, and recommend, these days) and he cashed in for some dough. I think he broke that money square, though I also think he lost there. Either way, when he got up, I was quick into the chair and emptied my wallet onto the enticing and smooth green felt top. The amount I cashed in generally gets laughed at, even eye rolls, when I go to Star City. But at Jupiters, it got some gasps. It was strange. I felt like a high roller, expect for the Asian couple beside me.

Betting got underway, and it wasn’t as friendly a table as I encountered at the Buck’s Night. But the older gentlemen I was sitting beside were up for some happy chit-chat. I went down, then went quite up with some bets, which I pocketed to ensure I would break square, then started going down again. That’s when I knew the table’s cards had been ruffled, and I’d have to hang around for may another hour till they hit a run again. Not having another $500 in my wallet to be able to last that long, to make a profit, I picked up, and he headed to the restaurant.

There I ordered a Hawaiian pizza and a glass of white wine. Andrew, no doubt, ordered something dripping in grease and fat (and while mine might seem no better, I will remind you that I had a salad the previous night, and eat extra vegetables for lunch). We debated Keno for a while, where I allowed Andrew to tell me that his numbers always came up and that he always won. I strung him on for a good half an hour before I just told him the facts of the world – if you always won on Keno, why are they still in business? He never really had an answer for me.

We went back to the casino, avoiding the woman I.D. checker, and looked around. While it might have been a weeknight, I’ve been to Star City on a Monday night and it was just as busy as a Friday night in terms of table seats. Jupiters was empty. A Blackjack table had just opened up, and there was one guy on it. I sat down, and this guy was doing a couple of ‘in the know’ things.  I gave him a nod, but then Andrew sat down, and two more Arabic-origins people, and the guy upped and left. It was obvious that the Arabic men did not know what they were doing, and if I had been that guy, I’d have left too.

Anyway, we played there for a while, up-ed and down-ed, and then I pulled out when the table went ruffled. I had lost the patience and time to wait around for another run, plus, I was square at that point anyway. I stood alongside Andrew who picked up some good hands, and then he up-ed and left too. We cashed out and made for the door. This time we were going to walk home. Good exercise and fiscally responsible. As we went over the moat that surrounds Jupiters, we found an umbrella that had been left on the railing beside a bench. We both assumed that it was accidentally left there, because it was in good nick, and wasn’t one of those $3 ‘Made In China’ deals. Though this was, no doubt, made in China too. We looked around for the nearest people – no one anywhere near us. So we kept it, just in case.

Walking home, we passed a McDonalds. For the past month or so I’ve been wanting a Vanilla Thickshake, so I stopped in and brought one. Andrew then followed my lead and got one too. We continued our trek home, whence we found our apartment complex, and made for our room. There we watched some more of The Office, and when we started to doze off, decided we should make for our respective beds. We would have a big day ahead of us at SeaWorld, I thought, as I closed my bedroom door and fell into bed.

What I should have been doing was thanking God for allowing us to find that umbrella …

Thomas.