Daily Archive

Yesterday, Barack Obama won the Wyoming caucus. I said that going into the big hiatus between the Mississippi primary and the Pennsylvania primary that Obama would be best positioned if he could get 60%+ victories in both Wyoming and Mississippi. He took a step towards that in registering a 61% to 38% victory over Hillary Clinton. With 12 delegates tied to the vote, the results so far are showing Obama with 7 and Clinton with 4 with 1 to decide. There is 1 left because in two of the counties (Crook and Niobrara) there was a dead-heat between to two. In Crook, it was a 10/10 caucus split, while in Niobrara it was a 31/31 split.

Along with those two, Obama didn’t win 6 of the 23 counties up for grabs. He managed to win the urban centres (in as much as Wyoming has one) of Laramie (home to the capital of Cheyenne) and Albany. In Teton county, Obama had an 80% to 20% victory.

The victory shows that Obama has far superior ground organisation than Clinton. He continues to win the caucuses. And further, it proves Obama’s wide appeal. While Clinton can only manage to get wins in traditionally Democratic states (which there is no contest in come the general election), Obama is getting big wins in traditionally Republican states. We see yet another reason why Barack Obama should be the Democratic candidate.

The next race, as I mentioned, is Mississippi. Obama is expected to win there. I say that if he can muster another 60%+ victory, it will take the wind out of Clinton’s sails from her March 4 victories, and we will be like they never happened. Literally too, because Obama is now roughly 120delegates ahead, and a big win in Mississippi (with its 33 delegates) will put him back to 140+ ahead of Clinton. That’s including superdelegates, which the count now is 210 for Obama, 245 for Clinton. As a tie in, this makes Obama’s pledged delegate count look a lot more promising to see him get the nomination - 1378 to 1223.

Also, Mississippi is proving to be an interesting state. The first poll released on the state, conducted on the 5th of March, had Obama up by 14% - 53% to 39%. Another poll that was taken over the 5th and 6th had Obama up by a huge 24%- 58% to 34%. Then the last poll taken just on the 6th had Obama up by a scary 6% - 46% to 40%. So it’s either going to be a whitewash, a convincing victory, or a tight win. Interesting indeed! And that’s in roughly 2 days time.

Thomas.