25000

Soon, the 25,000th visitor to Deus Lo Vult (WordPress or BlogSpot) will come. I welcome you in advance, and if it’s someone I know, it would be great if you could leave a comment. Just check on the counter to the left, at the bottom of the menu, to see you it’s you! You might win something! You probably won’t.

Thomas.

Assignment question

My neo-con essay for Australian history. The question is: Did John Howard’s ascendency represent a new constituency or a return to traditional Australian values?

From my readings thus far, I’ll be arguing that it was a new constituency – that Australian society was going through a political-identity change during the 90’s, and in order to capitalise on this, Howard shaped his rhetoric and the Liberal party around the concerns and needs of the majority of voters, while the Labor party had to contend with the Keating images and policies that they had established.

Thoughts? Any advice?

All is appreciated.

Thomas.

A handy reference

I just realised something that’s astounded me. My blog post, on Obama’s speaking style, is being semi-referenced by the University of South Florida, specifically in their ‘Professional Writing‘ course. That’s the link to it. You find the link to my post down the very end, on the right-hand side, positioned between a Huffington Post article on Hillary Clinton’s speaking style, and a Washington Independent article on McCain’s style. Maybe I’m making more out of this than it might be, but the list of links is written, not an RSS feed, or a link generator. Plus, it’s in a list which the course coordinator obviously wants the students to read, as there are a bunch of university .pdf’s there too.

I’m, yeah, quite astounded about it. Sure, my blog has been featured by CNN (and now by Fox here – which is a bit ironic, right? They include a link to my blog that bashes on Clinton somewhat, yet I’m one of the most pro-Democratic people going), has topped Google rankings in the past, and was the authority on superdelegates for a while there, but this latest reference is actually something I like.

Thomas.

Election predictions … for 2020!?

I was doing a brief and quick look around for future Democratic and Republican candidates (post-2012 and Obama’s reelection), and what I found could be either very worrying or very optimistic (pending your political view). The Republicans are in a good position, it would seem, to field some very strong, very effective candidates. 5 governors and representative I was able to find with little problem. And that isn’t to say anything about any ‘break-outs’ that could shoot up the ranks in the next 8 years. Of course, you would have heard most of these names before (Govs. Sarah Palin (AK), Bobby Jindal (LA), Chet Culver (IA), Charlie Crist (FL), Tim Pawlenty (MN)) because they are all viable VPs for exactly the same reasons they are future presidential candidates. The representative is Chris Van Hollen, from MD-8, who might be able to serve two terms as a rep., and then move to a bigger office for a few years (should Republicans take the presidency after 8 years of Barack Obama – a feat that would be impressive, given Obama’s VP), positioning himself nicely for a run in 12 years time.

The Democrats, however, will have to rely on an Obama administration making some future candidates. His VP will be #1 – Tim Kaine or Bill Richardson. In the light of this post, choosing Richardson as the VP might be a better play, as it would leave Kaine to serve 2+ more terms as Governor of Virginia, establish more of a record and public face, and should (as I expect would happen) Richardson lose the general election in 8 years time, Kaine is in a perfect position to be the candidate in the next general election. Remember, the Republicans are going to be able to field a very strong candidate in 8 years time, so it may pay to put the VP up for election, rather than a ‘break-out’ like Kaine.

The Obama administration might want to look at finding a public place for Arkansas senior Senator Blanche Lincoln. As the next viable female Democratic candidate (as I see it), it might pay her to not run for re-election come the end of two-terms time to walk into an Obama administration position, get some more experience, and public reputations, and run as the VP in 8 years time. Of course, in this scenario, choosing Kaine as the VP is preferable, as a Kaine/Lincoln ticket would be stronger than Richardson/Lincoln. Similarly, Lincoln is at the position where she could run in her own right in 12 years time, and as an incumbent in 16 years time, but certainly not as a challenger in 16 years time. Yes, when I say ‘position’, I mean age.

I should have noted this earlier. Elections will be in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. I run on the assumption that Obama wins the 2008 election, and he is reelected in 2012, leaving the incumbent VP to run in 2016. If it’s Richardson, I think he might lose, and we find ourselves at 2020, with Democrats challenging an incumbent Republican president.

Two Democrats that I happened upon were very good prospects for the party in 2020 and beyond. That is assuming they get elected and stay elected in 2008 and beyond. Yes, they are both challenging for seats in the 2008 general – Jon Powers, running for NY-26, and Darcy Burner, running for WA-8. Powers is a Iraq War veteran, a standout in the military, and an excellent social campaigner, starting an Iraqi charity ‘War Kids Relief’. His is a race I will be following closely (like the Virginian Senate race, of which Mark Warner is a shoe-in now – leading polls at 54%+) because I want to see him win, and then go on to something big. Assuming that he is able to serve 3 to 4 terms, around that time, Hillary Clinton may be thinking about leaving the senate, and a push for Powers could see him take her senate seat. After a few terms there, and we are looking post-2020 here, there might be a cabinet position for him under a Democratic president well after Obama (especially considering his exceptional military background), and then the next logical step for him is to a presidential run. He looks like the sort of guy who could do it.

Darcy Burner is a potential female candidate of the future, and one of the few that I could find. Assuming she gets up in Washington (which there is a good chance of, considering the state’s trending, the current year, and how close she came in 2006), serves some terms and gets some state popularity, she is in the perfect state to run for senate. Washington currently sends 2 female senators to D.C. at the moment – Senior Senator Patty Murray and Junior Senator Maria Cantwell. Patty Murray would be the first of the 2 to stand down, and probably in the years prior to 2020. If Burner were able to stay elected, and have enough notability state-wide, she’d be the sort of person to win the Democratic senate primary, and from there head to D.C. From there, some terms as senator, maybe, like Powers, an eventual administration posting, and she too is in a great position to run for president. And, because she isn’t Hillary Clinton, she won’t run a race that implodes!

Anyway, those were some names that I was able to find. I like to tinker around with political theories (as The Pope and I did in re-writing U.S. history the other day, beginning with ‘What if VP Nixon defeated JFK in 1961?’) and trying to find my next ‘Barack Obama’ (albeit I’m roughly 8 to 12 years ahead of what I’m predicting – though I was 2 years ahead with picking Obama). Who knows what will happen to then, but for now, I’ll be having a little think about where the U.S. political scene is headed in the future, when Obama wins the general election.

I think I see some posts in the works …

Thomas.

Jokes

Hahaha.

I have new-found respect for the Business Council of Australia now. Apparently they are going into the comedy industry. I like the idea, but come on? Does anything think we will see this sort of pay rate any time soon?

Thomas.

Funny internet things

I just had a very good laugh at something I read on a forum. There were suggestions as to who would play Bilbo Baggins in the coming Th Hobbit film. Here is a picture of Bilbo, as portrayed by Ian Holm from The Lord of the Rings:

Someone suggested Martin Freeman:

Someone mixed them up with Morgan Freeman:

What was funny was that the mistake occurred at all. But hilarious was the argument that ensued, which finished with the forum continuing the idea, as a way of ridicule, of casting Morgan as Bilbo. Plot lines that revolved around Morgan’s often portrayal as the ‘token black character’ in films, such as a slave, porter, ruffian, or the ‘magical negro‘ (seriously, I didn’t make up that last one – check it out!). Then The Hobbit turned into a blacksploitation tale. Following this, the film Glory came up and suddenly all the dwarves were black too. It was the kind of entertainment and humour that you would expect online.

The line, which really started the whole alternative-plots, was “Of course, suggesting that a 71-year old black man play Bilbo makes complete sense” had me laughing for some time.

Thomas.

Reevaluating the VPs

The VP lists, as they stand in my mind:

1: Charlie Crist
2: Tim Pawlenty
3: Mike Huckabee
4: Rob Portman
5: Sarah Palin

For the Repulicans, Governor or Texas Rick Perry drops off the list of top 5, Governor of Florida Charlie Crist moves up to #1 spot, Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty makes the #2, Mike Huckabee falls to #3, and Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin moves up to a viable #5. Mitt Romney drops off the list too, and Rob Portman, who came up in the comment discussion, creeps into #4. This is based on some polls, some tactics that I have hypothesised, and some rumours that I’ve been hearing out there.

1: Tim Kaine
2: Bill Richardson
3: Ted Strickland
4: Kathleen Sebelius
5: Jim Webb

For the Democrats, the only change is that Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland moves up to #3. Tim Kaine I still say is #1 because a recent poll came out showing Obama is ahead of McCain in Virginia. If Obama is making grounds in that area of the U.S. – the Appalachia area that Clinton swept – then it would be advantageous to have a candidate from that area to firm up votes. Jim Webb makes the 5 because he is from the same area – though I still consider him to be a bad choice in the light of the 4 ahead of him.

Though saying all that about Kaine, if McCain went with Crist, it would leave Ohio open (because Portman was the only Republican VP option from Ohio), and choosing Strickland would be a better choice to win that state – and an important state it would be. While Crist gets Florida for McCain, Strickland gets Ohio for Obama, and the two cancel each other out. And, with Obama going better in swing states, McCain would really need a state like Ohio to fall to him if he has any chance of winning.

I bumped Ed Rendell from the list because Obama’s numbers in Pennsylvania are firming up there quite well without his support.

Those are the lists I’ll settle on. It will fall like dominoes though, you watch. McCain will settle on a strategy for the election. Then he picks the VP that is best for that – and, from the list, he has many viable options. Then Obama will know what he has to do to win. So he will pick his VP. His top 3 each show a different election tactic to, and each is a viable response to a McCain approach.

It’s going to be very exciting this part.

Thomas.

A little update

I can see some light coming from the end of the tunnel in terms of assessment. It’s a very nervous light, considering the assignment that I handed in last Friday. I’ve been praying to at least pass that one. I really hope I do. I did get a reasonably good mark for my American Civil War foreign policy assignment – 82%. I was very happy with that, and the comments and what-have-you will actually do more to help me that the writing of the assignment. I might get around to uploading it here, as an annotated version so that my references to books and authors actually make sense to those people who haven’t read anything on the Civil War.

Speaking of my Civil War subject, we watched the film Glory today in a two-hour lecture. My gosh, that is a great film. If you want to see a real good recount (though not 100% accurate) of a real controversial issue in the Civil War (that of black soldiers) and their treatment, as well as a real good war film, then see that. Mathew Broderick, Morgan Freeman, Denzel Washington all bust out great performances in their roles. For Broderick, this was a surprise for me – I’ve never considered him the a real strong screen actor. But Freeman and Washington, it’s no surprise.

An essay and an exam are coming up soon, both on interesting history topics. The conservative movement (if it occurred) of Australian society in the 1990s, and my Civil War take-home. I’m looking forward to these (in as much as one does look forward to assignments) because the topics are rather interesting. Whether I’ll be saying that after I hand them in, well, that’s another story.

Anyway, 4 down, 4 to go.

I really hope I pass that other assignment.

Thomas.

Obamamania again

It made the news here in Australia. It’s almost unbelievable. No, it is unbelievable These pictures are so impressive, especially the first one:

75,000 people at Obama’s rally in Oregon. Four month ago, it was just beginning. Six months ago, it was a dream that had a slim chance of reality. A year ago, and people like me were called crazy. And tomorrow, when Obama wins the majority of pledged delegates, it will all be over.

Thomas.

No. We don’t.

We really don’t: Australia needs a space program.

Might be an idea to leave it to the countries who can generate the trillions of dollars needed for one. Some people really should think before they speak. And for those who don’t, they can join the Liberal Party. They seem to be doing a good job at that. Speaking and not thinking that is.

Thomas.