The latest round of state polls have come out. Let’s start with traditionally liberal and blue Washington (11EV). I felt the need to write ‘traditionally liberal and blue’ because it seems that some people have forgotten this fact – importantly, John McCain. He included Washington in his list of swing states and states that he would plug resources in to win. Either he was given the worst advice so far in this campaign or it was a horrible bluff to try and draw Barack Obama away from real swing states and back towards his base. Either way, the polls prove which way Washington will go come November. The last 5 polls from Washington had Obama leading by double-figures. This is no different, with a 15% lead – 55% to 40%. This is a blue state, and another lock for Obama.

Another poll from New Hampshire (4EV) comes our way because pollsters still think this state to be a battleground because of McCain’s popularity there, and its recent trend of getting bluer. This is also the second straight poll to have a double-figure lead for Obama. This one is 11% – 50% to 39%. Two months ago, McCain led the polls at 10%, then last month Obama got it to just a 5% lead. At this rate, the state will end up being the bluest of blues. Important to note, Obama wins among women by 16% and men by 7%, and most importantly independents by 15% – 50% to 35%.

California (55EV) is a huge state that the Democrats are extremely lucky to have a lock on. The latest poll has Obama 12% ahead of McCain – 53% to 41%. This poll is newsworthy because it shows Obama with a huge lead among the Hispanic vote – a 39% lead at 65% to 26%. The other demographics are the white vote where Obama has a lead in all of them – a 60% lead among the African-American vote, 80% to 20%, and a 41% lead among “other”, 68% to 27%. Again, Obama is winning among women by 33%. The pollsters here tested for the best VP pick, with Obama getting Bill Richardson and McCain getting New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Neither are likely, Bloomberg certainly not. McCain had mentioned about trying to compete in California, but he won’t run a single ad or stop in once now that he has to defend his home base as well as establish footing in swing states.

Next door is Nevada (5EV), and McCain has a razor lead over Obama – 3% (inside the margin of error) at 45% to 42%. These smaller states are the ones that will decide the race, and why Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Missouri are extremely important here. It should be noted that in May, McCain had a 6% lead in Nevada, so much like New Hampshire, it is drifting away from McCain. Whether it will drift as much and as fast as New Hampshire remains to be seen. It probably will, given the demographics. As for how they reported in the poll, McCain wins men by 14%, Obama wins women by 8%. The gender gap here is pretty obvious – a 22% difference between them. This state will stay close, but should end up Obama’s way.

Returning to Iowa (7EV), for the past 17 polls, Obama has been leading. This latest one is no different – a 4% lead (on the margin of error) at 49% to 45%. This figure is false, or at least will be no where near where the final result is. The poll has McCain winning the African-American vote by 10% – 55% to 45%. Obama’s lead in this poll will be slightly larger, but because the African-American vote generally makes up 2% of the total vote in Iowa, it won’t be much bigger.

Colorado (9EV) is a state that has gone Republican for the past 3 elections. Obama plans to hit it with a lot of cash and hit it hard. The latest poll, in line with the trend of having an Obama lead, puts McCain 2% behind – 43% to 41%. This will be, like Iowa and Nevada and New Mexico (all these states I’m saying will decide the election), a close race, but should go Obama’s way.

And now we get to my favourite poll for the weekend – Georgia (15EV). It is a statistical tie, with McCain on a 1% lead – 4% to 43%. This will fall into the same basket as North Carolina – a disaster! No one thought that the state would come into play, even when Obama said his campaign would target it. It was always going to be a ‘distraction state’, again, like North Carolina, that pulled McCain and Republican resources away from real swing states. It looks like, in the process of doing this that, Obama has actually brought the state into play. Yes, like North Carolina. Obama and his campaign said that they were targeting the state not as a distraction but as serious, based on their own internal numbers. Bu no one believed them, and wrote it off.

Georgia is now in play. If Obama won all of Kerry’s states (which he can easily do) and Georgia, Obama wins. It’s another North Carolina. I’m sorry to keep repeating that line, but it’s the case – traditional Republican state being brought into play by a stellar candidate and a lot of money. Whether the state will go blue or red is hard to say based of one poll. See how it is 2 months after the conventions and then we will be able to predict it. Anyway, Georgia is no longer a McCain lock, it’s a swing state. Much more of this and McCain won’t have to worry about defending the base and can compete in as many swings states as he likes – because his entire base will be swing states! This will be a hard-fought race here.

I might point out here that I regularly mention Obama’s standing among women in the polls because it continues to add ammunition to the argument against adding Clinton to the ticket. Obama is winning women rather healthy at the moment. It can improve and it will improve once the issues are brought onto the table. Clinton isn’t needed on the ticket to win them. Most have been won over, more will be won over, and the ones who are never won over would never have been won over with or without Clinton.

Thomas.