The lesson from this tale: Don’t believe rumours.
Prac. is going quite well. Tomorrow is my first lesson, the past two days have been observation (thank gosh! I’d have been killed had I tried what I wanted to!). School is so much different to what I remember. Different, but the same in a way. I guess things just seem different from my new perspectives of time and height.
Proper post to come.
Thomas.
There’s a rumour going around that there might actually be a substantive blog post going up here some time over the next few days. Who knows where these things start. I can neither confirm nor deny the rumour. I expect that actions will speak for themselves. That this weekend coincides with the end of university semester is pure coincidence.
Thomas.
All in the space of 2 days. You tell me what’s worse:
It’s becoming one funny reality show this.
Thomas.
I’m being kept from blogging much by assignments. I hope to finish one tonight. It’s on gender issues in schools. I’m quite pleased with how good it’s gone to here. I’m taking a bit of a gamble with my reflection on the new gender policy in schools by critiquing it (not the gamble) and coming up with ‘recommendations’ on how to make a better policy in terms of gender. If it pays off, and I get a reasonable mark, it would be a great blog post of interest to a few readers. There’s quite a bit of research gone into it on my part to, so I hope it will.
Thomas.
Someone forgot to tell McCain that you just don’t call your opponent in a presidential debate ‘that one’. Seriously, a senile moment?
Thomas.
This week, Obama is ahead in all swing states other than Indiana. Out of the 14 swing states, Obama is ahead (as per the most recent polls for each state) in 13: 6 by double digits; and only 1 that borders a statistical tie (though is 1% outside of it). I’ll get to the polls in a moment, but want to warn you that the numbers you might see could shock and scare you …
… if you’re a Republican …
The biggest state up for grabs will start us off. Florida, with 27 electoral college votes, is a state that, if Obama wins, wins him the election. On the flip side, McCain can’t win the election without it. There’s no if’s or but’s about it now – Obama has locked up 99% of the Kerry states, with only Minnesota (which is only a bit iffy because of a poll released last month that suggested a tie) a weak Democrat state. Assuming he wins Minnesota (which he will), Obama needs just Florida and the election is done there and then – the rest is bonus points.
So I expect the McCain campaign is sweating bullets when they saw the latest poll from the state: A 7% lead for Obama 52% to 45%. And it’s not from some partisan group of the Democrats – the poll came from FOX News/Rasmussen. In early September, the state looked like it was a McCain lock – the campaign even laughed at Obama’s attempts to win the state. Then, towards the end, there was a poll indicating a tie, and since then Obama has had small, but increasing, lead. Now, with a 7% lead on top of this consistency, it’s safe to say that the state is trending to Obama. This doesn’t mean it is guaranteed to go his way come election day (we have a tick under a month left, in a race that has a lot happening in just a week), but given the situation of things in the US, the ground set-ups of the candidates, and the money the Obama campaign has left, Florida is looking like it might flip.
Pennsylvania comes in second with 21 EVs. Through the week (and something I didn’t blog about) McCain pulled all his resources from Michigan (a state that many (not me) thought would flip to the Republicans and cause Obama all sorts of headaches) because he stands no chance there now (evidenced through public and internal polling) and has put them into Minnesota and Pennsylvania – hoping to flip one of these. There’s only been 1 poll since the general election began, back in mid-September, that showed McCain tied – and that’s his best performance in the state. Ever since then, there’s been Obama leads from 2% to 10%. The last 4 polls have showed a 6%, 8%, 12% and 10% leads for Obama. This latest poll, an 11% lead for Obama at 49% to 38%, only confirms what I’ve been writing for a long time now: Pennsylvania is not a swing state. It also makes McCain’s move out of Michigan redundant, though staying there was futile.
The next biggest prize is Ohio with 20 EVs. This state had long ago been called McCain’s by majority of the pundits. Me included, though I was inclined to send it McCain’s way because Obama didn’t need it and polls showed that McCain was nominally strong. Though since July, when the primaries ended and the conventions started, the race has been exceptionally tight, and Obama has been getting as many winning polls as McCain. The latest, 48% to 47% Obama’s way (FOX News/Rasmussen), is the tightest of the latest as majority of other pollsters have Obama leading by ~4%. The situation hasn’t changed – Obama doesn’t need Ohio, while McCain must retain it to win. But, if the polls are this tight going to election day, given the ground work Obama has put into the state, Ohio will go blue. It’s too close to call, or perhaps ever so slightly Democrat because the economy is still the #1 issue.
North Carolina, with 15 EVs and a previous stalwart of the Republican states, now shows a definite lead for Obama. The polls have been extremely close (given the state in question) since February, before Obama was even the nominee. Recent polls put the state at an average tie, with the candidates swapping the lead of ~2% each day. The latest poll however has Obama streaking ahead – a 6% lead at 50% to 44% (Public Policy). It’s worth noting that when a candidate gets past the 50% mark, we are beyond the statistics where the person behind could get an extraordinary pick-up of the undecided on the day and jag a win. Obama is ahead here by a majority in polls with out-dated formulas to predict the results. If this were the last poll going into election day, I would put Obama at 54% come the close of polls due to the demographics. If Obama wins North Carolina, I expect him to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada as well – swing states that had been previously trending McCain. New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa are solid blues, so accept them as wins easy enough.
Speaking of, Virginia, with 13 EVs, 3 polls came out about it all with different numbers but all saying the same thing: An Obama win. SurveyUSA has Obama up by 10%: 53% to 43%. Suffolk puts Obama up by 12%: 51% to 39%. Finally, FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama up only by 2%, 50% to 48%. Like I said, all indicate a win for Obama given he has broken the 50% mark. I suspect Fox/Ras. underestimates turnout, while Suffolk and SurveyUSA have maybe sampled in the Northern suburbs a bit much. If these were the last polls going into election day, I’d put the win around 6-8% for Obama – and handing him the election.
I referenced it before: Colorado and its hefty (given it’s near-non status in the race) 9 EVs has a new poll that gives Obama a 6% lead, 51% to 45% (again from FOX News/Rasmussen). Important thing here is not the lead, but that the same polling duo had Obama up only by 1% last week. That’s a 5% gain in less than a week. Either Palin has really offended some people in the Rockies, or the state is actually (as I maintain) solidly behind Obama and the 1% is just a dodgey poll. That state will go Obama’s way.
Missouri, like Florida and Ohio which had been called for Obama, is now back up for grabs. So too its quite large 11 EVs. That latest FOX News/Rasmussen poll has Obama up with a 3% lead – 50% to 47%. Last week, the same duo had McCain up by 5%. An 8% turn around is monumental but not out of the question. The state is quickly shifting to Obama, and McCain has little to do to stop it. Economy and identification with Obama seem to be spurring it on, which are two things McCain can’t stop people from thinking about. If Obama wins Missouri, I’ll be very happy but very surprised. Though, people were saying the same thing about North Carolina when polls started showing a tight race, so you never know. If he does win Missouri, then Obama may very well win Indiana – not because they are similar or linked but because they are both pro-Republican states of the level that if Obama was going to win one, he is going to sweep a few.
Another state like that is Georgia. Now you might remember me writing about how Georgia was in play some months ago. That’s because Obama’s campaign was targeting it to flip because of its demographics. Then, when the race tightened up, and internals showed little progress was being made beyond a point, Obama shifted his resources into Florida and North Carolina, took Georgia off the target list, and forgot about it. Well, it seems now it’s in play when you bring together two sources. First, the latest poll. It h as Obama down by 7% (Research 2000) – 50% to 43%. Now I know what I just said about the 50% mark, but in this case it’s different. Remember how I keep talking about out-dated formulas for the polls? Georgia is the classic example. African-American turnout contributed 25% of the vote in Georgia in 2004. Early voting in the state now indicates that the number will be … wait for it … a huge 40% of the votes cast. Winning 90%+ (which is realistic in this case, as Kerry got 88%) flips the state completely even when Bush won the state by 17% in 2004. This is a state to watch on election night for the surprise flip. If Obama does win it, like I said before, he is wining big – Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, even Indiana will all be in the bag too.
Finally, New Hampshire with its 3 EVs are going to Obama (like I said from the start). 13% lead for him, 53% to 40%. There’s no way this state is flipping red like the Republicans had hoped. I think they thought because he is notionally popular among Republicans that would somehow transfer over to independents (which the state has a huge amount of), but it hasn’t happened even slightly. The state hasn’t been swing for months – I wish that the polling companies would send pollsters to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina to give us a picture of what is happening through the South, rather than wasting time with the ‘blue horn’.
Anyway, if the election was held tomorrow, with my predictions of Indiana going with the landslide, the 1 EV from Omaha, Nebraska, and the Georgia numbers, Obama wins the election by a ridiculous and embarrassing margin: 391 EVs to 147 EVs. Take out Indiana, Nebraska, Missouri, and Georgia, Obama wins 353 to 185. Take out Ohio, it’s 333 to 205. Take out Florida, it’s 306 to 232. Other than that, you can’t take out any state that I have Obama winning without going against trends and polls. The election is running, not slipping, away from McCain and he is running out of time, and has run out of ammunition. What else can he do? He’s played his VP card, he’s had his convention, the first debate is done, the VP debate is done, he’s gone as dirty as you can get, he’s put forth all his policy views, and he has lost more ground the the French in World War Two. I’ve been saying that Obama will win the election and here’s the proof. The state polls are showing an Obama victory.
Thomas.
It’s more than likely that you’ve already heard what the attacks are all the character attacks are on Obama – Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and William Ayers. The Obama campaign’s comeback is to play teh Keating Five card – a giant round of ammunition that will hurt the McCain campaign in a big way. The card has been played yesterday, with Obama’s campaign being forced to bring up issues that have little to do with the election just to combat the gutter politics that the McCain campaign has brought to the party.
But who are the Keating Five? And what does it have to do with McCain. The savings and loan crisis, spread from the 1980s to the early 1990s, whereby savings and loan institutions (essentially mortgage companies) had been giving out a significant amount of loans at low fixed interest rates (due to a housing market boom, which at a peak in 1980 had $1.2 trillion in mortgage loans in the US market) as market values rose. But so too did national interest rates. To pay back the money that the savings and loan companies had borrowed in the first place (now at higher interest rates than the mortagages originally given) for earlier mortgages, companies would have to give money back from mortgage repayments beyond the interest, thus taking away potential (and eventually all) profits that company stood to make.
Then came the Tax Reform Act of 1986, whereby with new laws, it was better for group-owners (people pooling money to buy property) of properties that were not quite so profitable to sell them, because they could not be written off for tax. This eventually saw the end of the housing boom, while all these low-rate mortgages were out there not covering the then-current interest rates of repayment. The market value of properties began to fall, as the Reform Act began a rush to sell properties.
All the while, savings and loan companies had very little oversight after deregulation of the market (sound familiar?) and began to engage in some dodgey lending to make up shortfalls (also sound familiar?). Illegalities, like fraud and bad bookkeeping, took place, combined with other factors that were going on at the time, led to the eventual failure of 747 savings and loan companies, with a bailout required of the government (again, familiar?) to the tune of $160.1 billion, or $124.6 billion in today’s money. All under a Republican watch.
During the crisis, the company Lincoln Savings and Loan Association was investigate because its parent company had gone to the wall, and thus more than 20,000 customers of LSLA with a lifetime of savings (mostly elderly people) lost everything. The head of LSLA, Charles Keating, had made some $1.3 million worth of political donations to senators Alan Cranston (D-CA), Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ), John Glenn (D-OH), John McCain (R-AZ), and Donald W. Riegle (D-MI). Through the investigation, Keating seemingly called on these senators, as payment for the $1.3 million, to “help” him with investigators.
In 1991, it was eventually decided by the Senate Ethics Committee that Alan Cranston, Dennis DeConcini, and Donald Riegle had interfered with the investigation, while John Glenn and John McCain we cleared, but told they had exercise ‘poor judgement’ in their conduct and accepting of the money. It looked bad for them all, and only Glenn and McCain would go on from this as politicians.
So no one has brought this up, really, since then. At least not nationally. Perhaps in McCain’s immediate reelection bid it figured. But not in the 2000 nor in the 2008 primaries did it come up. And it hadn’t come up until now. It didn’t need to either – but with McCain’s campaign going down the dirty road first, it’s only fair to fight fire with fire. Obama’s campaign has put up the website Keating Economics which hosts a video that explains the whole thing (with some spin of course).It’s quite a traditional Republican move in a way – but new age and for the Democrats. Where the Republicans would have a fear-evoking advert on the TV, this is a fear-evoking website (the black background, the green fonts, the pictures of McCain and Keating, etc.). I don’t like that Obama’s team has had to resort to this, but look what happened to John Kerry in 2004 when he tried to avoid the dirt politics.
But if anything, this type of attack is more relevant than the one that Palin launched on Obama yesterday, and more than what a Rev. Wright attack would be. This one is about an investigation McCain was subject to, associated with the economy and tied into ethical questions. McCain and Palin are lying about Obama’s ties to William Ayers. While neither are actually completely relevant to the race, if either one had to happen, it would be the attack on McCain for the Keating Five.
Thomas.
Well, if the election was held today, the results would be a landslide. Obama would win by near 200 electorcal college votes, McCain would have run the most ridiculous and laughable campaign, and the world would be headed in a better direction. The latest round of polls tell us this. They indicate a routing for Obama, not just in a couple of the swing states but in all of the swing states. I’ll give then to you in dot points, and draw you attention to a couple of important numbers:
That’s right – they’re all important! Obama is up in Florida, a state that was swing, but he was probably going to lose. He’s locked up Pennsylvania (and it’s going blue, like I’ve been saying). Ohio is back into play, even though Obama hasn’t lead in a poll there for some months. Virginia has finally come round to showing the Democratic trend in the latest poll that previous years election results have shown. Missouri might still go blue – the bellweather state that, again, was swing but Obama was not really meant to win. Minnesota and Wisconsin – two hopes for McCain of flipping – have fallen in behind Obama. Nevada is either a clear Obama win, or really close – and if the polls are really close going into election day, the demographics are there to give Obama the win. Nationally, Obama is dominating, and the media is going crazy.
Guess what? That list doesn’t incued North Carolina – where the latest 2 polls out of these have Obama in the lead. Nor does it have numbers on Indiana, a state that had turned swing before the economy (the #1 issue in Indiana) became the foucs. Georgia and West Virginia reported in polls in the past week of 8% or less difference, with McCain in the lead.
Factor in all these states that I have polling data on, and North Carolina (holding off on Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, and even Missouri because this latest poll is the first to show a close race), and the Obama/Biden ticket gets 352 EVs to McCain/Palin’s 185. That is a routing, no matter which way you look at it. Missouri and Indiana are primed to flip too – another 22 EVs – which could bring it to 374 to 163.
West Virginia, and Georgia aren’t the only states that are on the verge of tipping over to swing. Montana is in a state of flux, Louisiana has been showing a closer race than normal, Arkansas seems to harbour some Democratic feelings (and would certainly be blue if Clinton was on the ticket). That’s 6 more states that could come into play. Before the race started, when it was going to be won with Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia, it was too much for McCain. Now North Carolina, Indiana, Florida are going Obama’s way, and the rest of the swing states are beginning to be locked up by him. It’s been too much for McCain for some time now – it will only get worse.
He does not want to go onto the attack. As much as the party is telling him to play some of the big cards, like Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and what-have-you, he really needs to stick clear of it. He needs to provide a voice of hope, not a voice of fear – because obvioulsy his scare tactics have failed misserably.
Granted, the polls have come off a horrible week for McCain – but this week will be no better. He took responsibility for the Treasury Bill passing through the House vote … before it failed! Then he tried to blame Obama and everyone laughed at him. Poll after poll came out through the week that showed terrible numbers for him. The VP debate is on in the next 24 hours – that will be bad for him. And then more polls will come out fresh off this week’s hoopla. So the cycle starts again! He can’t get out of the negative media, or the negative reaction by the voters.
Which is only a great thing for the Obama campaign.
UPDATE: And the latest poll to come out of Indiana shows a 1% lead for McCain – a virtual tie.
Thomas.
Thomas:
+ Lives in South-West Sydney
+ Attends the University of Sydney
+ Is doing a Bachelor of Education (Hons.) and a Bachelor of Arts
+ Is centre-left minded
+ Likes: Politics, films, traveling, the internet, cards, history, cricket
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