Yesterday was a post about a possible group of centrists in the US Senate having sway over the outcome of bills. Another interesting (and yet, at the same time, terrifying) prospect is the formation of a formal (yes, formal) caucus of Tea Party members in the Senate.
So far the Tea Party (not actually a distinct party, more an extreme wing of the Republican party) has managed to usurp a number of Republican primaries. They have managed to prevent Bob Bennett (R-Utah) from running for his fourth term (and he hasn’t done anything wrong at all, except talk about bipartisanship) as well as Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) from seeking a second term by defeating them in their state primaries. Mike Lee in Utah and Joe Miller in Alaska are the Tea Party candidates for those races. In other races, various primary candidates, who were associated with the Tea Party, have outed various ‘establishment’ candidates from their front-runner positions to take the nomination. That’s happened, so far, in:
- Florida – State representative Marco Rubio knocked off Governor Charlie Crist
- Kentucky – Ophthalmologist (see: optometrist) Rand Paul knocked off Secretary of State Trey Grayson
- Nevada – Assemblywoman Sharon Angle knocked off former chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and former state senator Sue Lowden
- Colorado – District Accountant Ken Buck knocked off Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton
Assume that they all win (something we can’t outside of this post because they are all extreme and are running way too close for their own comfort). 6 senators which all have a job because of the Tea Party.
Now assume that we go to some situation where the Republicans pick up a 51 seat majority with these guys in there.
These six people don’t actually appeal to a swath of the electorate, or a plurality of the population. These people will only get voted in on the basis that they aren’t Democrats (and there is backlash for the Democrats coming) and the Democratic base isn’t enthused enough to turn out to vote (whereas the Tea Partiers can’t wait to get to the polls). They most likely won’t win reelection when things settle down, and the wouldn’t have won in a general election . They can (and likely will) go to the furthest extreme that they represent in the Tea Party.
That’s rather scary, for an outside watcher, to be honest.
But the worst part is that they will really get a loud voice if the Republicans pick up a majority. Without all six of them, the GOP don’t have a majority. They can hold the party hostage (much like the Tea Party is currently holding the Republican Party hostage at the moment) and get the most insane bills passed and force Obama into a veto position should they make a majority in the Senate.
You might think that the House would serve as a check to the Senate. They won’t, because the GOP is positioned to take the House on the back of a wave of extreme-right rhetoric and policy. Something hard-right will come out of the House. It will probably get made worse by the Senate. Then in negotiations, it will meet in that red middle between hard-right and extreme-right.
The only reassuring fact is that the electorate may punish the Democrats for ineffectiveness over the past 2-4 years this year by putting the GOP in charge of both chambers. And then they will realise that the GOP is not only no better, but worse when they see the crap that the extremists of the party come out with. So that may well pay off for Obama in a reelection bid, as well as help to bring balance back to the House and the Senate (as well as a sane plurality who is prepared to negotiate).
Thomas.
