Liberals in turmoil

I so hope that the Liberals and Nationals errupt into a fist-fight tomorrow. With Tuckey’s failed leadership spill and with the vote to come, things are hardly going to cool down. None of the Nats and half of the Libs it would seem are so opposed to their leadership at the moment that Warren Truss could well stand a chance of leading the Coalition at the moment. Update: It’s reported that Turnbull has got the Coalition to agree to back the ETS bill that’s been negotiated and is coming up for a vote. Early reports indicate that it was a split down the middle of the party room. Shakey ground for the leader, me thinks.

I Tweeted what I saw as the odds of potential leaders should Turnbull be booted this week. Abbott has firmed up as favourite due to his past fortnight  of press (where he has been extremely anti-climate change) and his ‘elder’ status. I’d give him 7/1. Andrew Robb has bounded up from well behind (after the revelation of his unfortunate fight with depression) with his public statement that the Liberals shouldn’t support Labor’s bill to 8/1 odds. Joe Hockey is the favourite of the moderates, as well as being the only member of the party to try and bring back both feuding sides of this debate for discussions tonight. I give him 12/1 at the moment, but I think they are far too generous. 20/1 would be closer to the mark because there’s no way he will seek the leadership through this chaos (he has a ‘good guy’ image publicly, which will be very strong in 2 elections time), while people like Abbott and Robb would and need to take an opportunity like this. Julie Bishop would be the only other viable option – as lacking as she might be as an eventual leader. I’m not too sure what her true position is on climate change, but I imagine she has been threading needles behind Turnbull’s back much the same way she was probably doing it behind Nelson’s back. I’d give her 15/1 odds.

Going to be an interesting few days if the sparks ignite the bonfire.

Then again, it could all be for naught.

Thomas.

Good luck

Today I had to go into the city to visit the Apple store. I wanted them to take a look at my iPhone because, well, it seemed to be up the creek. Or if not quite up the creek it was floating away. I was expecting them to look at it, tell me it had X, Y, and Z problems and I needed to pay to get it fixed. I assumed this because companies, generally, make money from selling the product first and then selling the parts for repairs, especially for electronics. For example, one of the some $7000 TVs we have at work has broken down. The parts to fix it cost near enough to $1000.

So I showed my ‘Genius’ (the person I had to make an appointment  to see at the store) my phone and told them my problem. After looking over it and what-not, it turned out that they could classify the problems with it as mechanical faults and not user damage, which meant that I got a brand new phone on the spot. There was the slight inconvenience of having to restore my phone and reinstall all my applications and what-not, but that’s all a very, very small price to pay for a new and working phone.

I had gone in expecting bad news, and walked out getting good. I tend to think that I naturally have bad luck (if you believe in such a thing – something that fits well with my ’spiritual’ understanding). But, stuck in traffic driving home, I started to wonder if I actually do wake up with bad luck ahead of me. I came up with a number of examples in my head (eg. missing the honours application deadline and getting a faculty attendant to put my form in the submission box, my scholarship, my first job at the golf course) that could have very well not have worked out as advantageous as they have had it not been for good luck.

I don’t know. It’s not as though I’m having some monumental epiphany. I’m not going to bound off and turn to robes and chanting hymns. Maybe just, I’m not so unlucky as I thought I was. Or maybe there’s no such thing as luck. I don’t know. But rambling about it seems to make it better.

Thomas.

Lateline

I posted this on Twitter moments ago, but felt it important enough to repost here. Tony Jones just owned Tony Abbott on climate change on Lateline tonight. If you can find a reply of it on TV or on the ABC website, give it a watch. If you dislike Abbott, watch it. If you dislike climate skeptics, watch it. If you like watching politicians flounder and get rolled, watch it. I loved every moment of it.

Thomas.

Tackling drinking problems

My Amelie vs. Garden State post has been exceptionally popular this past week. It garnered a month’s unique views in the past 7 days. Someone must be doing a project about it or something.

Not related, to my mind I can’t see how raising the drinking age to 19 will reduce alcohol-related violence. I’m not even pretending to be an expert in the field, but I imagine that doing this would only raise the amount of illegal drinking as 18 year olds become the new 17 year olds. You may reduce some cases of violence as 18 year olds stay at home (but I wonder how much, as a proportion, 18 year olds are involved in the reported violence compared to, say, 20 and over). But you will simply have 18 year olds getting drunk at home. And, without a barman or a RSA-trained person in their company they will likely drink to excess. And doesn’t drinking too much over a prolonged period of time cause as many problems to society as the violence we hear about?

May it not be a better idea to lower the drinking age to, say, 16 but the purchasing of alcohol itself stays at 18 or raise it to 19. That way, people aren’t drinking at home, in secret and causing all sorts of problems, and the person who is doing the purchasing is now responsible for the peoples drinking. And it would take away the whole ‘wonder’ of hitting 18 and going  out to get smashed. The person will have been drinking for some 2 years already – the fact that they can now buy it doesn’t actually change much.

I understand that lowering the drinking age doesn’t eliminate at-home drinking, but perhaps allowing 16 year olds to partake in drinking in public will increase the moderation of their intake. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure there are medical ramifications to drinking during a key development stage. And I’m happy to hear them and defer to experts. But I would also like to see studies that reflect what impact alcohol has on the brain and body at certain levels which could be the new ‘legal limit’.

Adjustments to the law are not going to stop binge drinking bar a limit on the amount of alcohol someone can buy per hour. People will do so long as they can get alcohol. It has to be a cultural change – the idea that being drunk is acceptable and encouraged needs to go. Maybe by introducing drinking at a somewhat lower age, exposing teenagers to alcohol and all the myths earlier might, in fact, dispel the myths and the attractive ideas of being a binge drinker or drinking to excess.

Other than something like this, it’s either status quo or a massive shake-up of Australian culture. Treating alcohol much like cigarettes and tobacco, and banning advertising, sponsorship, slapping on disgusting labels, etc. That’s the only real other option to changing things as I see it.

Thomas.

Visit to the doctors

Went to the doctors today to get some shots for the upcoming trip to Malaysia. I initially went for the Swine flu shot and ended up getting one for Hep A and a set of tablets for Typhoid. I nearly got the Typhoid shot, but as I had got an injection in either arm, the doctor just gave me a script for the tablets. Well enough, I thought. Though I now have to remember to take 3 tablets over 3 alternate days. The chances of me forgetting are around at least one of them is around 70-80%. I nearly got a tetanus shot, but he figured I could wait longer. I suspect I’ll get it in 6 months time when I have to go back for the follow up Hep A shot.

I’m always nervous around my doctor. He obviously learnt the 7 second rule (stay silent for 7 seconds and someone is bound to break the silence for you), and when he asks me a question and I give him a short, one-word answer that isn’t quite to his liking he just waits. And waits. And waits until I crack and just ramble on like an idiot.

He probably also makes me nervous because he is the only man who could ask me to take off my pants and I would, being a doctor and all.

I got to the place roughly 10 minutes late knowing that it’s never on time. A guy rushed in some 15 minutes after me and asked how long until he would be seen (even with his booking). The secretary (or whatever her title is) ingeniously said “There’s one in there, and one waiting, and then you.” The guy was very pleased, obviously thinking he would be in soon, and sat down. I was the guy waiting. I waited probably another 15 minutes, and my appointment easily took 20 minutes. So this guy waited for the most part of 40 minutes before he got in. He looked pretty irate when I walked out. I was pleased that I had wasted this guy’s time. He looked like a douche.

Thomas.

 

One down

One exam done, one to go. Colonialism in Modern Asia was on today. Nothing too difficult as it (colonialism) is part of my favoured history topic (imperialism). I have a takehome exam I’m working on now for English that id due tomorrow. I will have to drive in to submit it, but happy to do so as it is the final weight on my shoulders for the year. After that I’m free to live life to the fullest.

Which generally means do what I’ve been doing for the past few days, but without sporadic moments of study. No university until next February, from whence I will begin the final year of my degree. Though it will be weighing on my mind – honours marks make their way to us in early December. Then the marks for my other courses. But there’s not a whole lot I can do with those now, so I’ll just let it be.

Hopefully I’ll be able to write a few posts that I’ve got on my mind. Probably not, and my updates will be more along the lines of the past majority which are snippets and extracts from life. In saying that, I’ll be trying for more substantial and important updates.

Until then.

Thomas.

Gainful employment

Work is getting busy again. On Friday night we had a function of some 220 people. The top boss was away, so your’s truly was left in charge. I laid the law down (much to the chagrin of the head chef who might have normally be left in charge). I was boss for the night because the kitchen staff was going to be nose to the grind for a solid 3 hours churning out food and the floor operations would make or break this function. I gave staff their roles, and then located myself behind our tiny bar for the next 6 hours getting drinks out. All-in-all the function went off without a hitch; there were a couple of times where we could have lost it all, but cool heads prevailed. I gave myself a bit pat on teh back when I finally got hom near enough to 2am.

Then today we had a function booked for 120, but it cleared 150. A presentation of some type, which should have gone down as one of the easiest we had ever had. But parents of children aged 3-8, for the most part, I have come to see are among the stupidest persons on the face of the Earth. The event was further complicated by the fact that the presenters were giving out some 200-300 free drinks tickets (we were preparing for 50-100) to all the snotty kids that got a trophy (event those lame “participation” (should read: you failed, but here’s a piece of paper) and they all decided to come up at once with the parents who also wanted a drink. And then all 150 decided to camp out the front of the kitchen so that none of the floor staff could take two steps from teh counters before they were swamped. Cheapskate parents were stuffing thier kids with food so they wouldn’t have to feed them (or spend money on them) at some point tonight.

Jackasses.

It was a bit of a stuff-up, today’s function. It could have been much worse, but it wasn’t the best effort. I would like to point out that my boss was in and running things for this one. I would also hope he goes and compares his efforts (lame) to my efforts (quite possibly the greatest function ever put on) and decide to give me a huge Christmas bonus. Or at least let me keep the bottle of Johnny Blue that was left at our place over the weekend (really, about ~$300 of whiskey, or ~$40-50 a shot if we sell it).

Exams next week: one take-home and one formal. Haven’t read the books for the take-home English one (but, as it is a take-home, that’s why I haven’t really tried to read them. Also, they are disturbing and offend me (really), and I have made a bit of a personal call to not read them). Have done a little bit of study for my formal history one, but that’s what most of tonight and tomorrow night will be about. I’m just shy of passing the subjects at the moment and after the last year, to be honest, I’m not fussed about my marks.

After all, I’ve done an honours thesis.

Also, the House in the US voted to pass the healthcare bill that was presented to it overnight. Big news, but nothing that I can really report here without trying to rehash 6 months of policy making. The senate bill will emerge soon-ish. That’s where some fireworks will come out – trying to get 60 votes to limit debate and then the vote. But the real fun will be when both chambers have to merge the bills. That’s a post I will probably write through next week.

Thomas.

NY23 results

So the Democrat won in NY23 yesterday. Very interesting turn of events leading up to it. The Republican candidate, Dierdre Scozzafava, faced with a third place finish, decided to drop out of the race. Then she started getting the phone calls.

Now the White House and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC – the group of politicians responsible for electing Democrats to the House) are always keen to get another House seat. So they started working over Scozzafava. Reportedly the first call came from Steve Israel. He’s part of the DCCC and a House representative from nearby Long Island. He paid her a visit, gave her “the talk”. He was there representing not only the DCCC but the White House and Obama himself.

Then came Sheldon Silver, who is the speaker of the New York Assembly (see: speaker of the state lower house), who spoke to Scozzafava. He is the most powerful state politician, not just Democrat. Then came a call from the future NY govovernor himself: state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. And then the top dog of the state picked up the phone: Chuck Schumer. Schumer is the senior state senator and Vice Chairman of the Senate Democratic Caucus, which makes him the third most powerful Democrat in the US Senate. Which, when you put Obama and Pelosi ahead, makes him the fifth most powerful politician in the land. Getting a call from Schumer is a big deal to any Democrat, but in NY it’s doubly big.

So Scozzafava got all these calls with messages like, I imagine, “I won’t forget this when:

• You’re running for reelection to your former assembly seat.” (Silver – who could not have anyone oppose her, or run her as the Democratic candidate)
• You’re running for election to Congress.” (Israel – who could not oppose her, or fund her as a Democrat)
• I’m appointing state cabinet officials.” (Cuomo – who will need some bipartisan appointments)
• You make it to D.C., or you ever need a favour from the NY kingmaker.” (Schumer)

A day after dropping out, Scozzafava did something that shocked everyone and endorsed the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. Shocking because of how little time there was for the above mentioned people to get her to to do it, and because no one expected her to anyway. But she did, and did so strongly and without wiggle room. It basically said, with a twist of the knife to the GOP, that she was done with her party so long as there was a far-right take-over way going on. And, especially if that’s how she was going to get treated, she might as well throw her lot in with the Dems and hope for the best.

At the end of the day, Cuomo is getting a lot of praise for the turn of Scozzafava, but it was a joint effort no doubt. That the Democrats are praising Cuomo says a lot about who the establishment are backing for the governor race coming.

Anyway, Owens got endorsed and, after the majority of voting has been done, he has won the race against Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman – and right-wing loon – with 49% to 46%. Scozzafava’s name appeared on the ballot. Know what she got? 5% – enough to spoil the party for the GOP and the Conservative Party. And in such a tight race, I am confident in saying that the endorsement was what got Owens over the line. There were likely enough disgruntled Scozzafava supporters that were so irrate with the way the GOP did nothing to support her and threw her under the bus that they threw their support behind the only legitimate politician in  the race.

While the Democrats have a few questions to answer themselves (after they lost the governor races in both Virginia and New Jersey – which too much is being made of to begin with), the GOP is faced with the absolute worst scenario that they could have imagined going into the special election for NY23. If Hoffman had won, there would have been a natural shift to the right as that wing of the party is “justified” with their win. If Scozzafava had stayed in and Owens had won, there still would have been a shift to the right as Hoffman beat Scozzafava in vote numbers. But when Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed the Democrat rather than the support the fringe candidate that he opposed, it was like watching someone draw a big fat line down the middle of the GOP that can’t be rubbed out.

The GOP now has to decide, before the 2012 general election (because they won’t have it sorted for the 2010 midterms) if they want to lurch to the right violently or be a legitimate party across the US.

Holiday plans

Am about to go ahead and book a holiday for December. Bit of a change from the destinations I had in mind. Will now be going to Langkawi, in Malaysia. A great place (purportedly) to escape and relax. Staying on semi-private island that only has the restort on it. I’m really looking forward to the trip.

Thomas.

Excited

I am excited about getting David Plouffe’s new book The Audacity to Win. There’s extracts being put up across the internet about why Clinton was not chosen as VP (Said Obama: “I think Bill may be too big a complication. If I picked her, my concern is that there would be more than two of us in the relationship.” (refering to Bill)), Obama’s thoughts on the Palin pick (“When voters step back and analyze how he made this decision, I think he’s going to be in big trouble. You just can’t wing something like this — it’s too important.”) and the process of picking Biden as the Dem VP (“couldn’t get a word in edgewise” at the first meeting).

Can’t hardly wait!

Thomas.