Ok, so where are we in terms of the World Cup? Aus…

Ok, so where are we in terms of the World Cup? Australia sits on top, after run rate, with six points, followed by Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa, again, all on run rate. If the end of the Super 8s was now, they would go through to the semifinals. Bringing up the final half is England and West Indies, on two points, Ireland and Bangladesh on zip.

There are fifteen matches to go (you can find them if you look). Assuming that a) Australia win all their matches, and; b) The favourites of the one-sided matches win, then the places in the semifinals hinges on these matches:

  • South Africa vs. West Indies
  • Sri Lanka vs. New Zealand
  • New Zealand vs. South Africa
  • South Africa vs. England
  • West Indies vs. England

Because it will help my next rambling, here are what the points table will look like before any of the above matches are taken into account:

  • Australia: 14
  • Sri Lanka: 8
  • New Zealand: 8
  • South Africa: 6
  • England: 4
  • West Indies: 4
  • Bangladesh: 2
  • Ireland: 0

With the South Africa vs. New Zealand match, that will change nothing in terms of either of these teams going through to the semis. However, if South Africa lose to the either the West Indies (who New Zealand beat) or England, and only one of those matches, they must win against New Zealand in order to stay in the top four. Of course, if they lost all three, England need only win one match match more, and from current figures, they would put South Africa out on run rate. If the West Indies can win all of their matches, they will move to eight points, two ahead of what South Africa’s point total would be before the above matches are taken into account, therefore making them have to win two matches. This, in conjunction with the scenario against England putting them out, means that if they lose to England, and the West Indies do indeed win all of their matches (which after beating South Africa puts them ahead of England and equal to South Africa at that point, and run rate determines the placings), the must beat New Zealand in order to at least stand a chance at making the top four by run rate against West Indies. If England can beat the West Indies in their match, it doesn’t stop the West Indies from becoming a threat to South Africa, but puts more emphasis on the South Africa vs England if South Africa loses against New Zealand. In this setting, South Africa have to beat the West Indies if the also lose to England.

So, in simple terms, losses to England and New Zealand means South Africa must beat the West Indies. Or, losses to the West Indies and New Zealand means that South Africa must beat England. Even in these two cases, it comes down to run rates, which South Africa is at a disadvantage already as they, after playing three matches, are at -0.35, while England is +0.02.



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