The Democratic primaries progress at a glance

An update to the post I did last month that spoke about Barack Obama leading the polls in Iowa. Well, it’s becoming more clear that that poll wasn’t an anomaly. Since then, a Strategic Visions poll (Republican) has data that indicates a tie between Hillary Clinton and Obama (29% a piece). This sort of data I would have expect before the 4 point lead poll that I reported earlier. It would have indicated a moving away from Clinton and towards Obama, before he broke away from the pack.

Following this, a Rasmussen poll reported a change again – back towards Clinton. She had a 2 point lead on Obama (27 to 25). Maybe not a big surprise as Clinton did have a good-ish week prior to the survey dates (which, mind you, was also the week before the Strategic Visions poll).

American Research Group published the latest poll, and it delivered a swing back to Obama, giving him a two point lead over Clinton (27 to 25). Of the polls that I take as the ‘best’ for American politics, it’s the A.R.G. and Rasmussen. Which is problematic, because they have a 4 point difference, and different winners. And one helps my argument of early momentum and one kills off my candidate’s campaign.

On the average of November, Obama wins, with (wait for it) a 0.4 lead. Something to watch out for might be Edwards (though I doubt it), as he polls 23, 24, and 23 in the polls mentioned above, respectively.

Another factor that helps the Obama camp is that it’s being reported that Michigan is being stripped of its delegates for moving its primary date before February 5. Michigan now joins Florida, who was also stripped. With these two out of the contest, a candidate only needs 2,026 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Something Al Gore could have done with one leg …

Thomas.

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