A bunch of polls came out over the weekend. Polls for New Hampshire. Polls about the Democrats. Polls that are all pointing to an Obama whitewash! Yes, it’s true: The ‘firewall state’ that the Clinton campaign was relying and depending on to win in the early stages of the primaries, is going Obama’s way. There should be much confidence coming from the Obama camp tonight. I know that there is in this blogger.
Why am I confident? Well, let’s look at the big polls today. USA Today/Gallup poll pegs Obama with a 13 point lead against Hillary (41 to 28). John Edwards pulls up third with 19 points. A CNN/WMUR poll puts Obama in the lead with 10 points against Clinton (39 to 27). Again Edwards pulls up third with 16 points. Strategic Vision has another Obama lead, to Clinton, this time a single figure of 9 points (38 to 29), with Edwards at 19 points again. An American Research Group polls Obama with a 12 point lead to Clinton once more (39 to 26), and again Edwards is third at 20 points. Finally, a Rasmussen poll has Obama leading again by 12 points to Clinton (39 points to 27), Edwards third at 18.
Edwards, with his second-place finish in Iowa, will be dead in the water if he doesn’t finish third. If any of these polls are correct, it looks like he will pull up last of the serious candidates. If he came in second again, he’s put his name first of V.P. position (though there are the arguments against). I hope he does come up second, putting Clinton in third. It tarnishes her reputation as electable. Similarly, it would see her, much like Rudy Giuliani has already, abandon the rest of the early states to focus on the big states that vote on Super Tuesday. That can only be great for Obama. He will win South Carolina no problem. But Nevada he was always pegged to lose. If he could snag that, or at least run very close to Clinton, then the papers will all read “Obama whitewash!”. The news cycles will be plastered with his face. Free publicity and free news cycles that all hurt his opponents. Great prospects for Obama.
In other news: Republicans in New Hampshire. John McCain is pulling away from Mitt Romney now. Between 14 points and 2 points lead to Romney in as many polls as Obama. Huckabee has seen some boost from Iowa, 14 points from some polls. He rates higher than he ever has now. If he came from his polled third place to win the state then he is a lock for the nomination. If McCain wins, then the contest is going to be even more confusing for the Republicans. Early states divided between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. Super Tuesday with Giuliani. Big problems for the party me thinks.