A tie!? A tie you say!?

More polls are coming in for the primaries. Democratic polls are showing Obama with big leads in South Carolina. Ones out today put him at between 12 points and 20 points ahead of Clinton. Massive leads for a state that isn’t the next in the process. It’s the momentum factor. The small lead that Obama managed to form from the big lead that Clinton had earlier has blown out to a whitewashing for the state.

But most importantly, and about time, for the first time since polls were coming in, Obama has tied with Clinton on national Democratic presidential nomination. 33 points apiece. This is huge – the U.S. has sat up and noticed the electablility of Obama, and the drag that Clinton is to the ticket. Not since the process began has Clinton had a tight contest in this type of poll. If Obama picks up New Hampshire tomorrow, I expect South Carolina polls to have Obama with a clear majority, and national polls to have him with a lead. How big it will be is left up to the N.H. voters. If they rally behind him and deliver him a bigger victory than that of Iowa, then the nation will report more in his favour.

What’s interesting is that this can be contrasted to other polls from yesterday. With the results of the polls that I reported on yesterday (indicating Obama would win New Hampshire for the first time), so too did data report that Clinton had a 4 point lead on Obama in national polls. With the news reporting that Obama, by the data of most polls, would soundly win N.H., the polls that came out today, that report Obama tying with Clinton nationally, are no surprise. In fact, they are prime examples of momentum – the factor I have been speaking about for so long here.

I suspect too that Obama has positioned himself quite nicely for a tight race in N.H. – in that he could run a 5 point or less victory and still come out streets ahead of the rest of the Democrat’s candidates. New Hampshire, if Obama were to win, will be more newsworthy than Iowa. And if South Carolina delivers a 20 point victory like the polls suggest, then that will be bigger news yet.

Thomas.

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