Super Tuesday II – Democratic polls

There is more political news to catch up with from the past day. Most important, and fantastic and exciting and stupendous, are the latest rounds of polls that have been released. Rasmussen released their latest on California, the biggest state in terms of delegates. To win this state would be huge for anyone, but more for Barack Obama. The latest poll suggests that that just might be an option. Hillary Clinton sits on 43%, Obama on 40%. This is, for all intents and purposes, a tie between the two, with a 17% uncommitted (whatever Edwards polled is now included in that since he dropped out). Not only was this state a sure thing for Clinton, but Obama was never close until recently, His Iowa win brought him to within 10%, and then South Carolina came, and he stands a chance of winning it. If he did, and even if it was only by 3%-5%, it would say more than the split delegates say. The media would go crazy with this fact. California is the state everyone will be looking at come Super Tuesday, and while there are many others that are up for grabs then, California is the one that people will be making a fuss about.

The best bit to come out of these polls it that Obama is beating Clinton among the white voters. The racial divide that dominated the South Carolina vote doesn’t seem to have spread outside of the South. If Obama is winning the ‘white’ vote in California, and splitting it in Massachusetts and Connecticut (I’m getting to these two states), then it’s a promising sign, not just for Obama but, for the Democratic party and the country.

It’s surprising to see that Obama has made up so much ground in such a short amount of time. It goes to show just what momentum does for you, as well as how tight of a race this is when it isn’t left to name recognition alone. When policies and politics comes into it, it shows that the people are ready to hear an alternative, and to believe in someone else once they hear them. Everyone who wrote Clinton down as the lock win for the nomination just brought into the hype as much as others. Now that actual substance comes into it, it’s a real race.

Rasmussen also released a poll on Massachusetts, in which I had expected another ridiculous amount of figures (after denouncing that the data was wrong in a previous post). Well, I was right. The latest poll has Clinton up by a very small lead of 6% to Obama – 43% to 37%. I was on to something here. The polls the were previously taken were inaccurate, last week with Clinton having a 37% lead, and in the wake of the John Kerry and the Kennedy family’s endorsements, Obama’s figures have gone up, while Clinton’s have fallen. Upward momentum for Obama here – and it is only going to continue in this also Super Tuesday state.

Again, Massachusetts has been regarded as a sure thing for Clinton. The tactics that I and other pundits had put forward was for Obama to stay within 10-15% of Clinton in her ‘lock’ states, hope to get a good share of the delegates, and then evaluate positions come February 6th. Obviously, the 10-15% approach is null-and-void. If Obama can actually go and win states that he wasn’t ‘supposed to’, and split delegates in Clinton fortress-states, then the news cycles would be plastered with Obama, and Super Tuesday would be his.

And where’s a Clinton fortress you ask? There’s 3, really. New York and New Jersey are two. The 3rd is Connecticut, and guess what the latest Rasmussen poll says about that state? Obama is in a dead-heat with Clinton! A 40%/40% split between them. A 20% uncommitted is high too, which lends hope to the Obama campaign of picking up a whole extra heap of votes, and then a whole heap of delegates. How will his numbers go up? Teddy Kennedy’s endorsement, while a Massachusetts Senator, is popular through the whole North-East. The poll for Connecticut was taken before the endorsement. With the endorsement in his pocket, and a lot of campaigning up there, since this and the Massachusetts polls suggest victories are at hand, these states that weren’t even up for grabs weeks ago are now tilted to Obama’s side.

And just a slice of Republican news: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed John McCain. He said that his endorsement came because Giuliani dropped out. I’m guessing this means that he was tossing up between the two? If you care about what he said: here. It’s a whole heap of hollow praise and waffle. Similar to a Schwarzenegger film actually. Just less killing … of people. Of braincells, it’s about the same.



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