Giuliani is out

Rudy Giuliani, long time national Republican primary leader, has finally dropped out from the race. You could be forgiven for not knowing that he was even in it still, such was the joke his campaign was. I’ll explain.

Rudy is not your regular conservative. He isn’t even close. He is pro-choice (pro-abortion) and pro-gay marriage. He had to adopt said views, and continue to support them, to get elected Republican mayor of New York. A New York electorate is obviously different to national Republican electorate. He had a list of remarks supporting these two views to boot as well. It wasn’t just a one-time thing that he could recant on. Anyway, the early states in the primary race are won on truly-traditional party platforms. Mike Huckabee on the ‘religious’ ticket, Mitt Romney on the Republican economy ticket, and John McCain on national defense. Giuliani was running on national defense too, but his other views, as well as a service record that doesn’t look anything like McCain’s, meant that he would have to run constant losses in those states.

So, to save face, time, and money, he didn’t campaign in any early states, and holed out in the ‘big states’ like Florida, California, and New York, hoping that picking up just one of these would put him into 1st or 2nd place (which it would have). He was truly expecting to win New York and Florida too.

So when polls came out showing McCain with a 2% lead on Giuliani in New York, and then he lost Florida, I think he sat down and saw that his race had been dead for a while. When you don’t run in the early states, your name doesn’t appear on the news. His name wasn’t in the news for nearly a whole month because of that, and people really forgot about him.

Anyway, now he is out. And he endorsed John McCain. This first came as a swerve to me, because I couldn’t see any overlap with any fellow Republican. But then I remembered they were both national defense. And then I thought some more …

To sure up the Republican nomination, McCain will have to get really conservative to win the Republican ‘base’. You can’t win an election without the base, and while you can win a nomination, you are better off pandering and getting voted in. If he does, he suddenly becomes a very-right candidate, and loses the chance to take some of the swing/ independent voters out there. Someone needs to challenge for these votes because Obama will sweep them up naturally, and these are the voters who are so ticked off with the current state of things, that they want a change. But the polls say that national security still rates better among Republicans than Democrats. So what can be done? You could have a Republican ticket that will keep you safe and bring about change if you have McCain running for president, Giuliani as his V.P.. That’s what the Republicans will tell you anyway.

And don’t think for a minute that I didn’t realise that this would set Giuliani up for a presidential bid in 1 term’s time. Seriously, John McCain is only a 1 term president. He’s too old. And it gives Giuliani a chance to show himself off to the American public to get their vote.

Thus, Giuliani’s drop out could be the best political move we’ve seen yet by any candidate. John Edwards’ drop out might have been premature, and if he had stayed into to after Super Tuesday, or a little longer, then his maneuvering might have been as big as this. But, as it stand, Giuliani has shown that he is a wily politician …

But it could be all to failure. Let’s not forget that Giuliani has high negativity ratings, isn’t liked by a whole heap of the Republicans, and has such a long line of scandals that the Democrats will have as ammo. Huckabee, I still say, is the most likely V.P. for any Republican – religious, Southern, gets the ‘base’ and real conservatives behind him, but still another social conservative. It will be a very hard pick for the Republican that gets to choose their running mate.

As for where Giuliani’s votes will be going, simply: He wasn’t getting any. Effectively none in the early states, and he only got so high in Florida because he campaigned there for weeks on end. He will, again, be forgotten, expect with the endorsement, McCain will probably benefit slightly from them.

See you later Rudy.

Thomas.

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