Polls – North Carolina, favorability, national

I have a question for you. Let’s say you’re invited to a party, and there’s roughly 100 people attending, and you can name 48 people that hate you, and all 48 people are going to be at that party. Will you attend? Would you actually go somewhere where 48% of the people there have a negative opinion of you?

Apparently Hillary Clinton does, as the latest poll from NBC would indicate. It showed that only 37% of the people surveyed had a positive opinion of Clinton, while 48% had a negative opinion of her. This, friends, is the lowest it’s ever been for Clinton. A new record low for the woman. What’s really bad for her is that her favourability among African-Americans fell a full 12%. However, what’s interesting to note is that she is still viewed favourably by a majority of African-American voters but they are still voting against her in record numbers. So Clinton’s 37% rating is being pulled down by white and ‘Hispanic’ voters – her two strong and target demographics!

Barack Obama’s overall favourability rating sits at 49% positive, 32% negative. Both good number when compared to Clinton and John McCain. McCain’s positive favouribility rating is at 45%, while his negative is at 25%. While the negative isn’t much of a surprise, it very interesting to note that he is still less than 50% and isn’t even competing in a primary race anymore!

These numbers have more importance than me being able to ridicule my candidate of choice’s two opponents. First, it is really bad for Clinton who is trying to convince all those superdelegates to not go with the pledged delegate winner because she is more electable than Obama. Her main argument is that she ‘unites’ people, and is ‘liked’ by the ‘people’ more, so the superdelegates shouldn’t endorse Obama at the D.N.C., rather they should support her. When your favourability levels are on  par with President Bush’s (who has a job approval rating of 31.3% on average, and a disapproval rating of 62.8%) you have some serious problems appealing to the superdelegates on ‘popularity’ issues. Seriously, if she were to win the nomination, her negative rating is near-on double that of McCains! There’s no real way she can convince those superdelegates. I declared it before. Not on issue, not on pledged delegate, not on ‘popularity’. Nothing.

Also interesting to note is that it’s obvious the Reverend Wright incident hasn’t left any marks on Obama for the Democratic primary. I expect it to pop up in the general campaign, but, for now, it looks like Obama has weathered the worst of it, and come out better. Gallop Tracking has Obama back up in the national polling – up by 4% on Clinton (48% to 44%) – and while it might not be by the huge margins we’ve seen, it’s saying something that Obama can take as big an incident as what Wright was, give the best speech in this campaign to date, and be back on top within a week.

Clinton’s 44% is the lowest she’s been at for over a week. I believe this to be because of not just her Bosnian lies, but because Obama impressed so much over the week. While Clinton was obviously trying to spin the Wright thing for all it was worth, she went too far with it, and kept going even after Obama put the full-stop with his speech. The people saw this, and if that had been it, they would have probably tied. But then she made her lies up about Bosnia, people found out, and that led to Obama getting the upper hand in the polls.

I say polls because in the latest McCain versus Obama/Clinton, Obama beats McCain by 2%, Clinton loses to McCain by 2%.  That’s progress.

And finally, another new poll about North Carolina. Obama’s up, and by what will be the minimum he wins the state by – 15%. The PPP poll that I reported on earlier I noted my tentative approach to it. This time, an InsiderAndvantage poll has Obama at 49%, Clinton at 34%, with a quite large 17% undecided. A majority of the media too, I note, have turned on Clinton for still bringing up Rev. Wright and the Bosnia fiasco, and are now saying too that she needs to win North Carolina. That’s good for the Obama campaign for people to be saying that, but awful for Clinton. Saying she needs to win North Carolina is a death-blow for her campaign because she will not win it.

Thomas.

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