The VP lists, as they stand in my mind:
1: Charlie Crist
2: Tim Pawlenty
3: Mike Huckabee
4: Rob Portman
5: Sarah Palin
For the Repulicans, Governor or Texas Rick Perry drops off the list of top 5, Governor of Florida Charlie Crist moves up to #1 spot, Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty makes the #2, Mike Huckabee falls to #3, and Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin moves up to a viable #5. Mitt Romney drops off the list too, and Rob Portman, who came up in the comment discussion, creeps into #4. This is based on some polls, some tactics that I have hypothesised, and some rumours that I’ve been hearing out there.
1: Tim Kaine
2: Bill Richardson
3: Ted Strickland
4: Kathleen Sebelius
5: Jim Webb
For the Democrats, the only change is that Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland moves up to #3. Tim Kaine I still say is #1 because a recent poll came out showing Obama is ahead of McCain in Virginia. If Obama is making grounds in that area of the U.S. – the Appalachia area that Clinton swept – then it would be advantageous to have a candidate from that area to firm up votes. Jim Webb makes the 5 because he is from the same area – though I still consider him to be a bad choice in the light of the 4 ahead of him.
Though saying all that about Kaine, if McCain went with Crist, it would leave Ohio open (because Portman was the only Republican VP option from Ohio), and choosing Strickland would be a better choice to win that state – and an important state it would be. While Crist gets Florida for McCain, Strickland gets Ohio for Obama, and the two cancel each other out. And, with Obama going better in swing states, McCain would really need a state like Ohio to fall to him if he has any chance of winning.
I bumped Ed Rendell from the list because Obama’s numbers in Pennsylvania are firming up there quite well without his support.
Those are the lists I’ll settle on. It will fall like dominoes though, you watch. McCain will settle on a strategy for the election. Then he picks the VP that is best for that – and, from the list, he has many viable options. Then Obama will know what he has to do to win. So he will pick his VP. His top 3 each show a different election tactic to, and each is a viable response to a McCain approach.
It’s going to be very exciting this part.