Florida and Michigan

After months of not including any numbers from the states, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met over the past few days and determined that both states would seat delegates with only half a vote each. Florida’s results would stand, with Clinton now getting 52.5 pledged delegates and Obama 33.5. Michigan, the most ridiculous of the cases the DNC had to deal with, would seat delegates split 69 for Clinton, 59 for Obama.

Florida is absurd in its own right. Obama refused to campaign there once the state was ruled out, while Clinton tried to make overtures to the electorate leading up to the state’s primary election. And, when it was originally ruled out of the race, and even the day before it voted, all candidates agreed that it was the right decision. Once Clinton won, and then when she fell impossible-to-recover behind, she started whinging and crying and demanding (as if she had any clout in the DNC0 that Florida should be counted. The same to with Michigan.

I said that Michigan was the most ridiculous case for a good reason. Neither Obama, nor Edwards, had their name on the ballots. But one candidate did – Clinton. She left her name on there in spite of the DNC telling her to get it off, and that the state wouldn’t count. Talk about a shady, doggish move. And then, when she started demanding Florida get reinstated, she did the same with Michigan.

I don’t think I can possibly describe how much I despise and loathe this woman right now. I’ve disliked her since last year, then hated her once she started attacking Obama, the DNC, and anyone who even thought she might not be the best option. But now, after her incessant and over-the-top tantrums, cries, whining … argh! I’m running out of descriptions for a 5 year old chucking a fit in a supermarket because it doesn’t get the lollies … after it all, I just loathe her now. It’s not that the states shouldn’t be seated – they should. It’s important to the election. It’s that she actually had the audacity to actually demand that a state be seated with full voting rights that didn’t even have the party nominee’s (Obama) name one it!?!? Are you serious woman, or just waaaaaay out of your mind!? I just hate you so much for even suggesting this, much less demanding it!!! ARGH!!!

Anyway, at the end of the day, Clinton has a nett gain of 24 delegates – the most she has got in a day, week, or month. Heck, even in a year! That’s how pathetic she and her campaign has been; she had to rely on the DNC Rules and Bylaw comittee to nett her the most delegates in a day. Pathetic.

The required number for Obama to get to to be the official nominee is 2118, not 2025. He is now 66 behind. Clinton is 241.5 away. I wonder who will win!? Psh.

Expect this: Puerto Rico votes Sunday – Clinton wins and netts ~11 delegates on Obama (60%/40%, 33 delegates to 22 delegates). Montana (60%/40%, 9 delegates to 7 delegates) and South Dakota (60%/40%, 9 delegates to 6 delegates) vote on Tuesday – Obama netts ~5 delegates on Clinton. From now to Monday, a trickle of 2-4 superdelegates will back Obama. Tuesday and Wednesday, 30+ will endorse Obama, putting him over the line of 2118, and will be the presumptive nominee at the conclusion of this long primary race.



9 thoughts on “Florida and Michigan

  1. Yesterday DNC said to Floridians: you are only a half people. And today we respond to DNC: go to hell, we then chose McCain!

  2. *Sigh* And here we have the typical retort of, what I expect, is a Clinton voter. You see, sour grapes taste bad even in this day and age. Because this person’s candidate was pathetically hopeless in running an effective campaign, was smug and over-confident, and represented less states in terms of values and policy, the candidate, campaign directors, and supporters are all having a cry.

    How pathetic it is that a **Democratic** voter is prepared to vote for John McCain instead of showing *any* party loyalty, *any* decency, and *any* intelligence. Because the Democrats in Florida *broke the rules*, somehow it’s Obama’s fault – and from that, somehow revenge on him is to not vote for him. That state really is backwards.

  3. So the final wait is over. Michigan and Florida delegates get all of their delegates and half of their votes. Doing the math, Obama is still 178 points ahead of Hillary. Even is she were to receive 100% of the delegates in Peurto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota, she still would reach Obama’s total. The committee voted, the fat lady sang, and the party’s over it, Hillary.

    Will Obama choose her as VP? That’s the only ticket Hillary has to ride in this election. She will have to earn it because of the internal and infernal division she has caused the Dems. Hillary will have to concede and let go of her Presidential dreams. She will have to settle for second best and stop sabotaging the Democrat Party. If not, then it only proves that she was in it for herself all along.

    On a side note, Harold Ickes stated that votes were stolen from her yesterday, but his voice in the wilderness went unheard. After all, weren’t some of his clients gangsters and mobsters who couldn’t care less about democracy?

    Out with the old and in with the new. The golden ticket has been won by Obama. But we already knew that before and after West Virginia and Kentucky. The question is this: are the Clintons still in the land of denial, or are they ready to go home?

  4. I expect now that we will hear a whole lot about the popular vote – not that it is any real way of measuring anything when **Obama’s name wasn’t on the ticket in Michigan**. Take away the ~350,000 votes she got there, and none for Obama, and we have a real measure – one that *still* shows Obama as the leader.

    If Obama chooses Clinton as his VP, then either he and his campaign know something we all don’t, or he has slipped into insanity. She now brings nothing to the ticket, nothing to a campaign, and nothing for the party. She is, in essence, political deadwood. And she will remain that way unless Obama or another Democratic big-whig bails her out. Obama might offer her the health portfolio in his cabinet, or the senate Democrats might arrange for her a senior position. But, if left to her own devices and efforts, she will achieve nothing – she is a junior senator from a guaranteed blue state. She had no experience that sets her *above* others there, and is an expert on nothing. If she decides she is bigger and better than the party, she will slip into political obscurity and be a senate footnote for future historians.

    Harold Ickes … well, what do you expect? His support typifies Clinton’s campaign – hypocritical.

    And I’m looking forward to the day the new is leading America. It needs it.

  5. The republicans cut 1/2 of Florida’s delegates for moving their primary up too but there is no discussion of that. Why because they got t a nominee quickly so the delegates done matter. They Do matter for the Dems, indeed I think that had the delegates counted and the race been run properly in Florida and Michigan, Obama would be another failed candidate and Hillary the presumptive president-elect. However, It was Govenor Crist who’s legislature arranged the early movement of the Florida ballot and if the VP spot were to be given out for shear political cunning that screws your opponents then Crist it is. Also the Florida electorate is unlikely to remember that the GOP only counted 1/2 their delegates because they made their decision quickly and it didn’t matter. So I’d say that Obama can kiss goodbye Florida’s electoral votes, especially if their governor gets onto the ticket. From their its a strategy to win Ohio and then the red states just about get McCain home. I’m sorry, Thomas but your candidate is in trouble and I have a similar opinion of Clinton to you. Electoral math 2000 – in a close race you need Florida!

  6. Poor St. Ives. I can understand that having a full-time job, having to write reports, and being in the whole ‘engaged’ business is time consuming, but all you have to do it ask me, and I’ll tell you exactly how the race will fall out. PLUS I’ll even include a map if you’re lucky.

    I’ll flesh this into a serious post, and not a comment, but here is how it’s going down my man. The race will not be decided by the big states. It will be decided by the small ones. Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia will be the winning states. Florida was *never* going to Obama. However, Ohio was never going to McCain.

    Here’s the list of states Obama will win to win: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine. That’s 268 electoral votes – only 2 more to go. If he chooses Tim Kaine as VP, Virginia brings him 13 electoral votes. If he chooses Bill Richardson as VP, then New Mexico brings him 5 electoral votes. Also, if he chooses Kaine, Iowa, Missouri, and New Hampshire are more than likely to go to Obama, with Nevada and Colorado a toss-up. And in the case of Richardson, Nevada and Colorado to Obama, with the other swing states probably still leaning Obama’s way anyway. So the Obama/Kaine ticket gets at least 303 electoral votes, the Obama/Richardson gets at least 287 electoral votes. Potentially, Obama could get 332 electoral votes. But that’s ambitious.

    Let’s not forget that the latest polls out of *Mississippi* has Obama in the margin of error behind McCain – a 4% difference. If the ‘black’ vote got as high as 40% (conceivable), and Obama got 90%+ of that, followed by just 40% of the ‘white’ vote, he could win the state. Another 6 electoral votes – which puts him over the 270 line without bringing the previously mentioned swing states (NV, CO, NM, VA, IA, MO, NH) into a needed win.

    Also, on the ‘targeted states’ list that the Obama campaign publicly released last week, Georgia was on there. 15 electoral votes.

    Let’s not forget that 47% of Texas is either ‘black’ or Latino, so the Obama/Richardson ticket brings that state into play.

    These last three states means that the McCain campaign has to focus resources and efforts in *keeping their base*, rather than being competitive in swing states. In fact, should the RNC abandon Mississippi and Georgia, and let McCain try and poach Democratic states, the best they can hope for is for him to win Ohio – and only Ohio. Which is 20 electoral votes. Mississippi and Georgia, combined, is 21 electoral votes, so Obama comes out ahead anyway.

    And if Texas went blue, there is no way there will be a Republican in the White House. No way at all.

    At the end of the day, my friend, this election is no where as clear cut as 200 or 2004. There are ‘firsts’ happening in this one, and a party base for the Democrats that hasn’t been this energised ever. Additionally, the Republican party is in a state that makes it nearly impossible to mount a seriously competitive campaign for the swing voters, while Obama is generally popular among them already. The race isn’t ‘locked’ just yet, but Obama is the favourite just by crunching a few simple numbers.

    Like I said, I’ll turn this into a post when I get some more free time.

  7. Well spoken Thomas. If people attacked Howard Dean for showing some form of energy and excitement after winning a primary 4 years ago, then what for the rantings of Hillary? Obama and McCain both went for 50 states, Hillary, Rudy et al played a 51% strategy. Well, Obama played 48 states, not because of lack of respect for the other two, but because they decided to ignore the DNC, because they wanted to be more important. The irony is, that if they’d waited, they would have been.

    Hillary has slowly broken down over this campaign. She’s changed positions more than any intern Bill worked with during his term in office. And before people accuse me of being a Clinton-hater, I admire and respect Bill as a President. However, Hillary went in to this feeling that the DNC owed her for not running in 2004. Remember, pundits were saying in November/December that it wasn’t a contest, and Hillary was the nominee. Obama has run a fantastic campaign, and survived things that would have put most people down for the count. Bring on November.

    And P.S. St Ives – Your candidate supports our candidate.

  8. LOL!! Well he had to support someone and any new administration needs a new AG. Lets face it Hillary isn’t going to get her own administration and McCain would not appoint Edwards as AG. One option left, one bandwagon jumped on……………………………

    Yes, I’m busy Thomas so I’d like a map!!

    Its also luck that Obama is a better candidate than my effort in President4Ever, because by the time I had weakened Hillary’s base, Edwards took almost all the states and Obama finished 3rd. In my own defence this was in between writing report comments so my brain was mush.

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