Senate Races

Here’s a quick list of senate races that I believe the Democrats will win. Each is a gained seat:

  • Alaska
  • Mississippi
  • Colorado
  • New Hampshire
  • Virginia
  • New Mexico

This would bring the Democrat majority to 57. 60 is the magic cloture number, and the DNC will be gunning for it, and trying to get the next 4 seats from these close races:

  • Maine
  • Oregon
  • Texas
  • Kentucky
  • North Carolina
  • Minnesota

Realistically, the Democrats are a good chance of winning Maine and Oregon, while Kentucky and North Carolina could fall with some well-run campaigns. Texas is going to be tight either way. Minnesota is a problem because there is a celebrity running there who has now started to fall into some tax problems. But either way, the Democrats are a chance in all these seats.

They aren’t poised to lose any senate seats either, which is quite an achievement. Louisiana might be close, but should stay in the incumbent Democrat’s hands. Therefore, on a really good election day, the Democrats could walk away with a 63 seat majority. Not only is this beyond the 60 seat cloture, but only 4 seats short of the veto-override majority number of 67 needed for the senate (note: a veto override needs a 2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate). Similarly, 67 is the number where the senate can issue constitutional amendments without the use of the president.

With some northern Republican senators, and some Republican senators who want to distance themselves from any remnant of the Bush past, the Democrats in senate might be able to pick up 4 senators to make up the 67 if they needed. Not to mention there is an election in 2010, and who knows what will happen then.

Either way, the Democrats look to be set to hold onto the senate majority for quite some time.

Thomas.

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