Some more predictions

South Dakota will go to Obama by 6-8%. Montana will go to Obama by 18-20%. 40+ superdelegates will endorse Obama in the next 24 hours.

Thomas.

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10 thoughts on “Some more predictions

  1. Originally, in 2007, it was going to be Clinton/Hagel. His name kept popping up because he disagreed with Bush over Iraq, and is generally annoyed with Republican policy of late.

    But it will never happen. First, he’s a Republican first and foremost. Second, his home state is Nebraska – 5 electoral votes – and last voted Democrat in 1964. Third, it’s heavily favoured towards McCain at the moment, and would likely stay red even with Hagel on a ticket. Third, he voted for the Iraq War, and while he might speak out against it now, it would make Obama look hypocritical having a ‘yes vote’ on the ticket, but having derided Clinton the whole primary race for voting yes. And fifth, the Iraq War is about the only thing these two politicians agree on – they disagree on abortion, on guns, on healthcare.

    As for breaching the Republican divide, Hagel has a 10% more favourable rating among Democrats than he does Republicans, so I don’t think he would swing Republicans by the bucket-load. He’s more likely to swing that little group that is a touch beyond those Republicans Obama is already appealing to and not so far as those that will already vote McCain. And this isn’t an election-winning group.

    Of course, in fantasy elections, a bipartisan ticket (not attempted since Lincoln/Johnson in 1864) would be a great thing to theorise on. And then the whole idea of the Obama/Hagel vs. McCain/Lieberman race would be something else to write about.

    But in this race, Hagel as VP? No.

  2. Ted Strickland – Said today, in not unwavering terms, that he will not serve as VP, so that gets rid of him.

    Chuck Hagel – Been through that previously.

    Brian Schweitzer – I never included because he’s from Montana with just 3 E.V.’s and a state that is always going to go Republican. I don’t rate his chances of helping in the wider mid-west either. Experience is a plus, but he doesn’t have the foreign policy resume – so it’s a trade-off here.

    Joe Biden – Said he doesn’t want it. Would have be been a gamble because he’s old, been in Washington a long time, and comes from a state that is going to go blue anyway. But has great foreign policy and experience.

    Mark Warner – Said he doesn’t want it, will pick up a Senate seat in Virginia. Yet, in the fantasy world, would be the second best pick out there after Gore.

    General Wesley Clarke – Touch and go here. Somewhat well know, great foreign policy and military credentials. Big and known Clinton supporter, no political experience. He balances out Obama’s ticket on one hand, hurts it on the other.

    Michael Bloomberg – This guy is too hard to predict. He’s been a member of every party in terms of voting and policy. He has a load of cash, but at the moment only brings up New York – which is blue anyway. There was speculation about him running by himself as an indy, or as a VP for both parties. He said no to all of the above.

    Claire McCaskill, Ed Rendell and Kathleen Sebelius – I went through these three cases in my earlier post.

    Bill Richardson – I rate his chances less now, as recent figures have shown Obama with a 70%/30% lead in the Hispanic vote. I think that those sorts of numbers remove the reason to gamble on having a ‘double minority’ ticket, and put more credence in having an experienced governor from a swing state as VP.

    Jim Webb – This guy’s name just doesn’t disappear. Seriously, if people criticise Obama for having less experience than necessary, what are they going to say about a 1.5-year senator? He hasn’t finished his first full term. He has *some* more experience, in terms of committees and as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs Sure for 3 years, and 1 year as Secretary of the Navy, but a lot of that has been hammered and criticised in the past 15 years, and by Reagan before he died no less. Webb has only been a registered Democrat since 2006 – his election year. Surely that will hurt him too. He took forever to endorse Obama – waiting until after Obama secured enough delegates. Plus, he’s said he isn’t interested in the job. Working in his favour, though, is that he traded barbs with President Bush, and nearly hit him, when the two met. In all seriousness though, if Webb is the VP, every McCain advert will emphasise his 30+ years of public service, and talk about experience and what-not coming from the Republican ticket. Plus, the Democrats might lose a senate seat should Webb step out of it. There’s better choices than Jim Webb. Tim Kaine, for example.

    I think, at the end of the day, if you base your pick on betting odds, then you’re going to lose more money. I say more money because you’re likely to have lost money betting on Clinton (who reached as high as 70% prior to the primary race) to beat Obama. Even before Super Tuesday, Clinton was still the favourite, and it wasn’t till half-way through February that Obama caught her.

    People bet because they see good odds on a ‘roughie’ – that’s why a whole heap of these names pop up: They are roughies that don’t stand much chance, therefore have high odds, and from that people can win big *if* somehow they got up. Much like horse racing (a pastime of mine). What I’d like to know is what odds Tim Kaine is giving, and then finding out how much money I can put on him.

  3. Thomas:

    Please see my comments under “Who.” Not the best place to post political thoughts, I’m just now discovering your blog. While I don’t believe Jim Webb would ultimately become Vice President, if he were, his Senate seat would stay Democratic. Governor Tim Kaine would be empowered to appoint Senator Webb’s successor. Kaine, a Democrat, would surely appoint another Democrat, and that person would serve until the general election in 2010. In November , 2010, there would be a special election for the last 2 years of Sen. Webb’s unexpired term. Speculation – the Democratic candidate in 2010 may very well be Gov. Kaine.

  4. Sorry, I should have been a little clearer when I said what I said bout Webb’s seat. You’re right – Kaine would appoint a Democrat. But, as I saw it, Webb would need the added boost of incumbency to win reelection. After all, he won with only ~9000 votes last time, and on the back an awful blunder and campaign by George Allen, something that doesn’t usually happen twice. Then, take into consideration that Mark Warner will win the other seat, as well as a with the election looking to go all Democrat, and in a state that has traditionally gone Red in presidential and state elections*, I thought perhaps voters in Virginia might send a Republican to the senate in 2010 – perhaps Bill Bolling, seeings how he’s said he won’t run for governorship.

    But you also point out something of note – that *if* Webb were to be chosen as VP (and we are in agreement here), that Kaine would be the likely Democratic candidate, with the only other choice being the person that Kaine appoints to serve the until 2010. Kaine’s term does end in 2010, and it would be an aligning of the planets, so to say, were this to happen. That is something I hadn’t considered, and would certainly lean that seat back to the Democrats come 2010.

    Thanks for the insightful comment, and do leave some more. I’ll reply to your other comment right away.

    * Though Virginia, I note, has had more Democratic senators over the 20th century than Republican, and the Democrats recently won control of the state senate. Also, the state is swing now, and with Tim Kaine as the VP, could even go blue. The state does seem to be a hard one to predict.

  5. I like the idea of this http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/06/16/mccains_dream_picks.html

    McCain couldn’t do a better job of putting paid to the Bush’s 3rd term than by making Lieberman his running mate. A very strong ticket! I doubt Obama could beat it in terms of heft without convincing Gore to do the VP job again. Then its down to a policy battle and that could lead us anywhere depending on the mood of the US electorate. A close battle I think

  6. Can you seriously imagine what the Republican base would do should ‘Maverick’ John McCain, who is already in trouble with his own party, choose North-Eastern Connecticut senator, failed Democratic VP, failed Democratic member Joe Lieberman on the ticket! Prior to his running as an independent, Lieberman was a stalwart Democrat, still caucuses with them, hold Democratic views, and sure, he might agree with McCain on the war, but that’s really it. And it doesn’t matter which politicians agree with McCain on the war – a majority of American DON’T agree with McCain’s war views. So, if anything, it pays to disagree with McCain.

    It would be a cake-walk for Obama. I think, St. Ives, you just don’t think Obama can beat McCain no matter what happens – even if McCain ran with the corpse of Stalin. Give Obama, the DNC, and the prospects of Obama’s VP a chance and some credit.

  7. Actually Thomas I think that the base will come out to stop Obama and that an independent on the ticket will help with independents. I also think that both parties bases will be out in force this year no matter who the nominee was or who these 2 pick. I think that Obama should win given the climate, but that whoever gets the independents on board will win. A cross party ticket would help McCain say that he is not Bush3.

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