An update to Poll-o-rama

Yes, some late break polls have been released, and it’s just more and more bad news for John McCain. A second poll has been released of Florida (27EV) that shows Obama up by 5% – 49% to 44%. That’s big news, and scary stuff for the Republicans. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it has something to do with McCain’s advocacy of offshore drilling in the area. I’ll explain.

President Bush, McCain and now Governor of Florida Charlie Crist are all encouraging a lift on the ban on offshore drilling for oil on the coasts of the U.S. The U.S. senate recently rejected the bill, and the Republicans came out harder for it. They argue that an increase in drilling and production will decrease the price of petrol. It will (as supply and demand vs. speculation on the market works), but in 5 to 10 years at least. Obama and the Democrats oppose the lifting of the ban.

On a side note, Crist used to be extremely opposed to lifting the ban. Suddenly he has changed his tune to fit McCain’s. A coincidence, or something to do with a two-letter future job?

Anyway, it’s the second poll to show Obama leading. This time outside the margin of error (just). It is definitely not encouraging news for McCain.

And on the front of one of the two states that McCain stands a chance at flipping from 2004 blue to 2008 red, New Hampshire (4EV). The latest poll from there has Obama up by 12%, 51% to 39%. Again, Obama is winning among women, by 22%, and getting a huge 89% of Democrats – a figure he is planning for in all states. Of great signs for Obama too is his victory among independent voters – he gets 53% of them.

I’m going to wait until after the convention and VP selections have been made before I officially call it, but it looks almost certain that New Hampshire will be staying blue.

Thomas.

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