Well, if the election was held today, the results would be a landslide. Obama would win by near 200 electorcal college votes, McCain would have run the most ridiculous and laughable campaign, and the world would be headed in a better direction. The latest round of polls tell us this. They indicate a routing for Obama, not just in a couple of the swing states but in all of the swing states. I’ll give then to you in dot points, and draw you attention to a couple of important numbers:
- Florida – Quinnipiac – Obama 51%, McCain 43%
- Florida – CNN/TIME – Obama 51%, McCain 47%
- Florida – InsiderAdvantage – Obama 49%, McCain 46%
- Florida – Suffolk – Obama 46%, McCain 42%
- Pennsylvania – Quinnipiac – Obama 54%, McCain 39%
- Pennsylvania – Morning Call – Obama 45%, McCain 38%
- Ohio – Quinnipiac – Obama 50%, McCain 42%
- Virginia – CNN/TIME – Obama 53%, McCain 44%
- Missouri – CNN/TIME – Obama 49%, McCain 48%
- Minnesota – CNN/TIME – Obama 54%, McCain 43%
- Wisconsin – Strategic Vision – Obama 49%, McCain 40%
- Nevada – CNN/TIME – Obama 51%, McCain 47%
- Nevada – InsiderAdvantage – Obama 48%, McCain 47%
- National – TIME – Obama 50%, McCain 43%
- National – Pew Research – Obama 49%, McCain 43%
- National – Associated Press – Obama 48%, McCain 41%
That’s right – they’re all important! Obama is up in Florida, a state that was swing, but he was probably going to lose. He’s locked up Pennsylvania (and it’s going blue, like I’ve been saying). Ohio is back into play, even though Obama hasn’t lead in a poll there for some months. Virginia has finally come round to showing the Democratic trend in the latest poll that previous years election results have shown. Missouri might still go blue – the bellweather state that, again, was swing but Obama was not really meant to win. Minnesota and Wisconsin – two hopes for McCain of flipping – have fallen in behind Obama. Nevada is either a clear Obama win, or really close – and if the polls are really close going into election day, the demographics are there to give Obama the win. Nationally, Obama is dominating, and the media is going crazy.
Guess what? That list doesn’t incued North Carolina – where the latest 2 polls out of these have Obama in the lead. Nor does it have numbers on Indiana, a state that had turned swing before the economy (the #1 issue in Indiana) became the foucs. Georgia and West Virginia reported in polls in the past week of 8% or less difference, with McCain in the lead.
Factor in all these states that I have polling data on, and North Carolina (holding off on Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, and even Missouri because this latest poll is the first to show a close race), and the Obama/Biden ticket gets 352 EVs to McCain/Palin’s 185. That is a routing, no matter which way you look at it. Missouri and Indiana are primed to flip too – another 22 EVs – which could bring it to 374 to 163.
West Virginia, and Georgia aren’t the only states that are on the verge of tipping over to swing. Montana is in a state of flux, Louisiana has been showing a closer race than normal, Arkansas seems to harbour some Democratic feelings (and would certainly be blue if Clinton was on the ticket). That’s 6 more states that could come into play. Before the race started, when it was going to be won with Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia, it was too much for McCain. Now North Carolina, Indiana, Florida are going Obama’s way, and the rest of the swing states are beginning to be locked up by him. It’s been too much for McCain for some time now – it will only get worse.
He does not want to go onto the attack. As much as the party is telling him to play some of the big cards, like Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and what-have-you, he really needs to stick clear of it. He needs to provide a voice of hope, not a voice of fear – because obvioulsy his scare tactics have failed misserably.
Granted, the polls have come off a horrible week for McCain – but this week will be no better. He took responsibility for the Treasury Bill passing through the House vote … before it failed! Then he tried to blame Obama and everyone laughed at him. Poll after poll came out through the week that showed terrible numbers for him. The VP debate is on in the next 24 hours – that will be bad for him. And then more polls will come out fresh off this week’s hoopla. So the cycle starts again! He can’t get out of the negative media, or the negative reaction by the voters.
Which is only a great thing for the Obama campaign.
UPDATE: And the latest poll to come out of Indiana shows a 1% lead for McCain – a virtual tie.