Prediction

Late-ish, and certainly not a detailed as I might hope for (I may do a post in the future explaining this prediction), here is my prediction for the race. Obama to win 374 to 164. I don’t think Obama will win Ohio, but I do think he will win Missouri, Montana, Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and Iowa. You won’t find many, if any, pundits giving Obama Georgia or Montana or Indiana for various reasons. I think Obma’as ground game in each of them is so superior that he will edge out a small win in each. Especially Montana, because Ron Paul is still on the ballot.

I haven’t given Obama Ohio because the Republican ground game and party in that state is still functioning. Plus, there are still lingering sentiments over the primaries and a bunch of “issues” that Obama presents to the rural-white vote. Louisiana, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas started reporting closer polls in the last week. There’s serious chances for all of these to flip, but trends and campaiging patterns by Obama (not really targeting these states) might prove the undoing. If Arizona flipped, McCain’s home state, it would be huge. I think out of all of them, Arizona is the most likely, followed by North Dakota, then Arkansas and South Dakota. Louisiana might if people who fled the state after Hurricane Katrina and later hurricanes retunr to vote. An absolute toss-up that one.

One bold thing I’ve done that no other pundits (that I’ve seen) have is split Nebraska. I believe Obama iwll edge 1 electoral vote out of the 2nd district there. It was something I reported on a while ago in another post. While I don’t think it will be a tie-breaking move, I think it will be succesful and salt in the wound to break the trend and be the first candidate to split a state’s electoral vote.

So, again, 374 to 164, with the possibility of breaking 400 if there’s a huge landslide on. I’ll be keeping a hand on my phone for every update I get. And expect a post tomorrow about what the results are.

Thomas.

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