Stats

A remarkable stat from the 2008 US election. There was (all approximate) an increase of 5.4 million votes between 2008 and 2004. That in itself isn’t remarkable. What is is that 2.2 million of them, alone, were Hispanic voters. A tick under half.

Democrats don’t dominate the Hispanic votes like they do African-American votes, but Obama did win 67% of them. If Democrats continued to win them by 2/3rds, at the rate the block is increasing, it creates a formidable buffer for them, combined with their other demographics.

What is most worrying for the Republicans though is that the Hispanic population is increase in many areas, not just in concentrated areas. All the US-Mexico border states are seeing a general rise. That’s why New Mexico has switched, Arizona is on the verge of, and Texas is about one election cycle away from being competitive (that is if you discount its possibility of being competitive with an incumbent and popular president in addition to this influx of Hispanic vote in 2012).

California is expected to boom in population, with a good part of it due to Hispanic persons. So that will sure up that state for the Democrats.

But Florida, too, is seeing an increase in population and is expected to be the third most populated state – taking over from New York in the coming years (with Texas being second, California being first). Again, a large proportion of this growth is coming from Hispanic persons.

That’s not to say every Hispanic person will vote Democratic. But keeping a 67% hold on the votes means that Texas’ 34 (soon to increase) come into play soon, Florida’s 27 (soon to increase) are titled Democrat, and Arizona’s 5 will soon be like New Mexico’s and a certain Democratic win. Makes for some interesting maths.

Thomas.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s