Liberals in turmoil

I so hope that the Liberals and Nationals errupt into a fist-fight tomorrow. With Tuckey’s failed leadership spill and with the vote to come, things are hardly going to cool down. None of the Nats and half of the Libs it would seem are so opposed to their leadership at the moment that Warren Truss could well stand a chance of leading the Coalition at the moment. Update: It’s reported that Turnbull has got the Coalition to agree to back the ETS bill that’s been negotiated and is coming up for a vote. Early reports indicate that it was a split down the middle of the party room. Shakey ground for the leader, me thinks.

I Tweeted what I saw as the odds of potential leaders should Turnbull be booted this week. Abbott has firmed up as favourite due to his past fortnight  of press (where he has been extremely anti-climate change) and his ‘elder’ status. I’d give him 7/1. Andrew Robb has bounded up from well behind (after the revelation of his unfortunate fight with depression) with his public statement that the Liberals shouldn’t support Labor’s bill to 8/1 odds. Joe Hockey is the favourite of the moderates, as well as being the only member of the party to try and bring back both feuding sides of this debate for discussions tonight. I give him 12/1 at the moment, but I think they are far too generous. 20/1 would be closer to the mark because there’s no way he will seek the leadership through this chaos (he has a ‘good guy’ image publicly, which will be very strong in 2 elections time), while people like Abbott and Robb would and need to take an opportunity like this. Julie Bishop would be the only other viable option – as lacking as she might be as an eventual leader. I’m not too sure what her true position is on climate change, but I imagine she has been threading needles behind Turnbull’s back much the same way she was probably doing it behind Nelson’s back. I’d give her 15/1 odds.

Going to be an interesting few days if the sparks ignite the bonfire.

Then again, it could all be for naught.

Thomas.

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4 thoughts on “Liberals in turmoil

  1. I wouldn’t have rated Andrew last night when I wrote that. His throw-of-the-dice seems to have been a last minute thing. Also, I suspect he did it when no one else did – and no one else did because they knew they didn’t have the numbers.

    Take, for example, Abbott who came out this morning the most staunch Turnbull supporter this side of his wife! You didn’t hear him saying such pro-Malcolm things for weeks leading up to now. I would bet that he did a number count, realised it would be short (probably the same 7 that Andrew fell short) and decided to fall in line.

  2. It’s interesting you say that, because Abbott is now going for another Spill putting himself on the line. This doesn’t surprise me, and I think he has a better chance then Turnbull staying in now. I actually thought/think Hockey has been grooming himself for a leaders position. He is backing Turnbull, but I think it’s part of his technique. He has been significantly less annoying during question time, he isn’t as loud as he was, in his interviews on TV he has certainly changed his demeanor. I would be surprised if, like Michelle Grattan and many others have predicted, if next monday it is Hockey as leader, Abbott as deputy, Turnbull on the Backbench, and some more righ wing nuts on the front bench.

  3. I like your prediction of the Hockey/Abbott leadership. Surely Turnbull will be banished to the backbenches and from there I wouldn’t be surprised to see him quit politics before the next election. He has no credibility anymore, and will have no clout. And especially if Hockey is leader, it will mean Hockey will be the boss of the moderate faction.

    The other rumour coming out, which actually excites me a little more, is the Hockey/Dutton ticket with Abbott as shadow treasurer. Remove Abbott as treasurer and put Chris Pyne in and that’s actually a combo that is competitive. As long as Abbott is at the front of the Liberals he will put voters off.

    Yeah, Hockey, with hindsight for the past year, has clearly been grooming himself to take over from Turnbull. I think he was expecting it to happen after the next election – where he would stand a chance at winning one. But it’s come upon him now. I really hope he opts out of the leadership though – he is too good to waste.

    We know one thing though – the right wing nuts *will* be taking over the cabinet when Turnbull is outed.

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