I so hope that the Liberals and Nationals errupt into a fist-fight tomorrow. With Tuckey’s failed leadership spill and with the vote to come, things are hardly going to cool down. None of the Nats and half of the Libs it would seem are so opposed to their leadership at the moment that Warren Truss could well stand a chance of leading the Coalition at the moment. Update: It’s reported that Turnbull has got the Coalition to agree to back the ETS bill that’s been negotiated and is coming up for a vote. Early reports indicate that it was a split down the middle of the party room. Shakey ground for the leader, me thinks.
I Tweeted what I saw as the odds of potential leaders should Turnbull be booted this week. Abbott has firmed up as favourite due to his past fortnight of press (where he has been extremely anti-climate change) and his ‘elder’ status. I’d give him 7/1. Andrew Robb has bounded up from well behind (after the revelation of his unfortunate fight with depression) with his public statement that the Liberals shouldn’t support Labor’s bill to 8/1 odds. Joe Hockey is the favourite of the moderates, as well as being the only member of the party to try and bring back both feuding sides of this debate for discussions tonight. I give him 12/1 at the moment, but I think they are far too generous. 20/1 would be closer to the mark because there’s no way he will seek the leadership through this chaos (he has a ‘good guy’ image publicly, which will be very strong in 2 elections time), while people like Abbott and Robb would and need to take an opportunity like this. Julie Bishop would be the only other viable option – as lacking as she might be as an eventual leader. I’m not too sure what her true position is on climate change, but I imagine she has been threading needles behind Turnbull’s back much the same way she was probably doing it behind Nelson’s back. I’d give her 15/1 odds.
Going to be an interesting few days if the sparks ignite the bonfire.
Then again, it could all be for naught.