The deal-wheels have been turning all day in Canberra. After numerous rumours, and the looking through all of them that I could find, the follow is the most likely to happen, as I see it:
- Joe Hockey won’t vote for a spill, but there will still be enough votes for one to come;
- Hockey will oppose Malcolm Turnbull and win with the backing of Nick Minchin’s group or cronies;
- In getting the leadership, Hockey will allow for a conscience vote on the ETS;
- Minchin will stop delaying the vote;
- Leadership will largely remain the same for the immediate period.
After that, who knows.
Update: Both Minchin and Tony Abbott have both come out an repudiated any rumour that has either the ETS going through (Minchin) or that Hockey is the confirmed candidate to go against Turnbull (Abbott). Abbott is still running because Hockey isn’t going to shred the ETS it seems. This might, however, lend weight to the crossed-out theory.
Update again: Ok, the above is the case if the party room votes for Hockey. If it’s a vote for Abbott, then the ETS is deferred or scrapped. If Malcolm wins, who knows what on Earth will happen.