Australian election – New South Wales (1)

While there’s mid-terms in the US this year, I’ve all but written them off as our own election looms here. I am getting my stuff together to be able to look at the election and make my predictions all over again. They were very accurate in 2007, with my seat-by-seat picks. This year should be more interesting and more difficult to predict, so I am starting early.

I have compiled my initial information for NSW and feel that it’s safe to say there is 13 ‘toss-up’ seats here. It actually comes out in favour of the ALP (despite their bigs gains in 2007), with 6 Labor seats and 7 Coalition seats on  the line (5 Liberal and 2 National). The seats are:

Cowper (National)

  • Benelong (ALP)
  • Calare (National)
  • Cowper
  • Dobell (ALP)
  • Eden-Monaro (ALP)
  • Gilmore (Liberal)
  • Hughes (Liberal)
  • Hume (Liberal)
  • Macarthur (Liberal)
  • Macquarie (ALP)
  • Page (ALP)
  • Paterson (Liberal)
  • Robertson (ALP)

I think Benelong will stay with the ALP (McKew got a ~1% win facing an incumbent who, while off with the ‘nation’, was quite a popular member and PM) and Eden-Monaro will go with the ALP (being bellweather and all). So that takes the Labor defense down to 4, which the Liberals stay at 7.

I think Hughes will go to the ALP, I think they will pick up Calare or it will go independent (less likely is the independent). I also think the ALP will lose Macquarie. The rest will be an all out fight, and will go down  to the wire. But, if they all break how they are held now, I expect NSW to give Labor two extra seats at least, possible as high as four even with their possible losses.

I will revisit down the line, but not before I get the rest of the states done.

Thomas.

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2 thoughts on “Australian election – New South Wales (1)

  1. Here are my predictions for the NSW seats you outlined:

    LABOR GAINS:

    Hughes

    COALITION GAINS:

    Benelong
    Gilmore (Notionally ALP at present)
    Page
    Robertson

    NO CHANGE:

    Cowper (National)
    Calare (National)
    Hume (Liberal)
    Paterson (Liberal)

    Eden-Monaro (ALP)
    Dobell (ALP)
    Macquarie (ALP)
    Macarthur (ALP – Notionally ALP at present)

  2. I think you’re on the mark with Robertson. Belinda Neal’s icy touch has created a problem for Labor there. But they won’t give it up without a huge fight. If I had to pick now, I’d agree with you.

    Gilmore and Page are hard to hear. Gilmore, for intents and purposes, is a Liberal seat already with a sitting Liberal member.

    The Nationals will go hard for Page, but the recent demographic shifts in the area with redistricting and general movements of population make the demographics better for the ALP as the years have gone by. With that said, Page suffers from the bush problem of younger people leaving for the city, and this has increased the proportion of 65+ voters. I can’t decide, to be honest. But if I was forced to pick, I’d go no change.

    Gilmore has a very Green streak through the North of the seat with a very popular candidate too. This might counter the fact that the Labor vote is probably a little inflated. Getting down to it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Labor edge out a victory here. But it will be very close, again.

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