Australian election – Victoria (1)

Victoria next. I have 12 toss up seats. I was somewhat more liberal with my labelling as ‘toss up’ because of the belt of seats that run across the suburbs of Melbourne and are growing with varying demographics. Also, Labor has gained as many seats in Victoria as it would without specific attention. Thus, Liberal seats that might have otherwise been safe will get a lot of campaign attention and finance. So combine changing demographics, Labor pouring in money to a few seats, and some stroong candidates. Finally, I think that Labor will look at New South Wales and Victoria (to a lesser extent) to offset losses in Queensland and the other handful of seats that they are risking a loss in in Tasmania and Western Australia.

The list ends up as:

  • Aston (Liberal)
  • Bendigo (ALP)
  • Corangamite (ALP)
  • Deakin (ALP)
  • Dunkley (Liberal)
  • Holt (ALP)
  • Isaacs (ALP)
  • Kooyong (Liberal)
  • La Trobe (Liberal)
  • McEwen (Liberal)
  • McMillan (Liberal)
  • Melbourne (ALP)

There’s some interesting seats at play. McEwen, for a start, is the seat most affected by the Black Saturday bushfires. What the effect will be is unknown now, and the Liberals are running a candidate who is termed a ‘bush fire hero’.There’s three non-incumbent seats here too, one of which (Petro Georgiou) really only saved his seat in 2007 by being a rebel to his own party and getting local support for it. Corangamite has Sarah Henderson – TV presenter – running for the Liberals. The problem with this seat is that the Geelong area, while Liberal, isn’t fussed with Abbott, and as the seat has trended to Labor this is an area that would have to increase its performance in recent years.

Melbourne is, without a doubt, the best prospect of a Greens seat in the House. Lindsey Tanner held off any competition in the seat for years. Now that he is retiring Labor has to look at the real prospect of the Greens polling second and possibly winning the seat on preferences. The Greens polled 23% in 2007, and the ALP only won the seat by 5% (even with Tanner) against the Greens on 2PP. The Greens are running a well known candidate for the area too. The ALP, though, might have done itself a big favour by losing Tanner and, thus, a decision maker of the current government and avoid a decisive swing against them.

For the future, say 2013 and 2016, there are some serious prospects for the Greens. In New South wales there is Newcastle,  Grayndler, Cunningham, and Sydney in New South Wales. In Victoria, there is Melbourne and Batman. In Tasmania there is Denison. If, one day, the Greens were to win all these seats, it would amount to 7 seats in the House. A good start and a good number to hold the swing. I reckon that would have been enough of a number after this election.

Still too early to really say for some of these seats but I think Liberals will hold Aston, Dunkley, Kooyong, and McMillan. Labor will gain La Trobe and hold Melbourne, Isaacs, Holt, and Bendigo. Corangamite, Deakin, McEwen are anyone’s guess at the moment. Victoria might be even at the end of the day if Labor gains La Trobe and McEwen and Liberals gain Corangamite and Deakin. But Labor will try and prove me wrong (hopefully) and bring a bunch of those seats into their own column.

Thomas.

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One thought on “Australian election – Victoria (1)

  1. Again, my predictions:

    NO CHANGE:

    Aston (Liberal)
    Bendigo (ALP)
    Dunkley (Liberal)
    Holt (ALP)
    Isaacs (ALP)
    Kooyong (Liberal)
    McMillan (Liberal)

    COALITION GAINS:

    Corangamite
    Deakin

    LABOR GAINS:

    La Trobe
    McEwen

    GREENS GAINS:

    Melbourne

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