Swing state polls – FL, PA, OH, NC, VI, CO, MO, GA, NH

This week, Obama is ahead in all swing states other than Indiana. Out of the 14 swing states, Obama is ahead (as per the most recent polls for each state) in 13: 6 by double digits; and only 1 that borders a statistical tie (though is 1% outside of it). I’ll get to the polls in a moment, but want to warn you that the numbers you might see could shock and scare you …

… if you’re a Republican …

The biggest state up for grabs will start us off. Florida, with 27 electoral college votes, is a state that, if Obama wins, wins him the election. On the flip side, McCain can’t win the election without it. There’s no if’s or but’s about it now – Obama has locked up 99% of the Kerry states, with only Minnesota (which is only a bit iffy because of a poll released last month that suggested a tie) a weak Democrat state. Assuming he wins Minnesota (which he will), Obama needs just Florida and the election is done there and then – the rest is bonus points.

So I expect the McCain campaign is sweating bullets when they saw the latest poll from the state: A 7% lead for Obama 52% to 45%. And it’s not from some partisan group of the Democrats – the poll came from FOX News/Rasmussen. In early September, the state looked like it was a McCain lock – the campaign even laughed at Obama’s attempts to win the state. Then, towards the end, there was a poll indicating a tie, and since then Obama has had small, but increasing, lead. Now, with a 7% lead on top of this consistency, it’s safe to say that the state is trending to Obama. This doesn’t mean it is guaranteed to go his way come election day (we have a tick under a month left, in a race that has a lot happening in just a week), but given the situation of things in the US, the ground set-ups of the candidates, and the money the Obama campaign has left, Florida is looking like it might flip.

Pennsylvania comes in second with 21 EVs. Through the week (and something I didn’t blog about) McCain pulled all his resources from Michigan (a state that many (not me) thought would flip to the Republicans and cause Obama all sorts of headaches) because he stands no chance there now (evidenced through public and internal polling) and has put them into Minnesota and Pennsylvania – hoping to flip one of these. There’s only been 1 poll since the general election began, back in mid-September, that showed McCain tied – and that’s his best performance in the state. Ever since then, there’s been Obama leads from 2% to 10%. The last 4 polls have showed a 6%, 8%, 12% and 10% leads for Obama. This latest poll, an 11% lead for Obama at 49%  to 38%, only confirms what I’ve been writing for a long time now: Pennsylvania is not a swing state. It also makes McCain’s move out of Michigan redundant, though staying there was futile.

The next biggest prize is Ohio with 20 EVs. This state had long ago been called McCain’s by majority of the pundits. Me included, though I was inclined to send it McCain’s way because Obama didn’t need it and polls showed that McCain was nominally strong. Though since July, when  the primaries ended and the conventions started, the race has been exceptionally tight, and Obama has been getting as many winning polls as McCain. The latest, 48% to 47% Obama’s way (FOX News/Rasmussen), is the tightest of the latest as majority of other pollsters have Obama leading by ~4%. The situation hasn’t changed – Obama doesn’t need Ohio, while McCain must retain it to win. But, if the polls are this tight going to election day, given the ground work Obama has put into the state, Ohio will go blue. It’s too close to call, or perhaps ever so slightly Democrat because the economy is still the #1 issue.

North Carolina, with 15 EVs and a previous stalwart of the Republican states, now shows a definite lead for Obama. The polls have been extremely close (given the state in question) since February, before Obama was even the nominee. Recent polls put the state at an average tie, with the candidates swapping the lead of ~2% each day. The latest poll however has Obama streaking ahead – a 6% lead at 50% to 44% (Public Policy). It’s worth noting that when a candidate gets past the 50% mark, we are beyond the statistics where the person behind could get an extraordinary pick-up of the undecided on the day and jag a win. Obama is ahead here by a majority in polls with out-dated formulas to predict the results. If this were the last poll going into election day, I would put Obama at 54% come the close of polls due to the demographics. If Obama wins North Carolina, I expect him to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada as well – swing states that had been previously trending McCain. New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa are solid blues, so accept them as wins easy enough.

Speaking of, Virginia, with 13 EVs, 3 polls came out about it all with different numbers but all saying the same thing: An Obama win. SurveyUSA has Obama up by 10%: 53% to 43%. Suffolk puts Obama up by 12%: 51% to 39%. Finally, FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama up only by 2%, 50% to 48%. Like I said, all indicate a win for Obama given he has broken the 50% mark. I suspect Fox/Ras. underestimates turnout, while Suffolk and SurveyUSA have maybe sampled in the Northern suburbs a bit much. If these were the last polls going into election day, I’d put the win around 6-8% for Obama – and handing him the election.

I referenced  it before: Colorado and its hefty (given it’s near-non status in the race) 9 EVs has a new poll that gives Obama a 6% lead, 51% to 45% (again from FOX News/Rasmussen). Important thing here is not the lead, but that the same polling duo had Obama up only by 1% last week. That’s a 5% gain in less than a week. Either Palin has really offended some people in the Rockies, or the state is actually (as I maintain) solidly behind Obama and the 1% is just a dodgey poll. That state will go Obama’s way.

Missouri, like Florida and Ohio which had been called for Obama, is now back up for grabs. So too its quite large 11 EVs. That latest FOX News/Rasmussen poll has Obama up with a 3% lead – 50% to 47%. Last week, the same duo had McCain up by 5%. An 8% turn around is monumental but not out of the question. The state is quickly shifting to Obama, and McCain has little to do to stop it. Economy and identification with Obama seem to be spurring it on, which are two things McCain can’t stop people from thinking about. If Obama wins Missouri, I’ll be very happy but very surprised. Though, people were saying the same thing about North Carolina when polls started showing a tight race, so you never know. If he does win Missouri, then Obama may very well win Indiana – not  because they are similar or linked but because they are both pro-Republican states of the level that if Obama was going to win one, he is going to sweep a few.

Another state like that is Georgia. Now you might remember me writing about how Georgia was in play some months ago. That’s because Obama’s campaign was targeting it to flip because of its demographics. Then, when the race tightened up, and internals showed little progress was being made beyond a point, Obama shifted his resources into Florida and North Carolina, took Georgia off the target list, and forgot about it. Well, it seems now it’s in play when you bring together two sources. First, the latest poll. It h as Obama down by 7% (Research 2000) – 50% to 43%. Now I know what I just said about the 50% mark, but in this case it’s different. Remember how I keep talking about out-dated formulas for the polls? Georgia is the classic example. African-American turnout contributed 25% of the vote in Georgia in 2004. Early voting in the state now indicates that the number will be … wait for it … a huge 40% of the votes cast. Winning 90%+ (which is realistic in this case, as Kerry got 88%) flips the state completely even when Bush won the state by 17% in 2004. This is a state to watch on election night for the surprise flip. If Obama does win it, like I said before, he is wining big – Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, even Indiana will all be in the bag too.

Finally, New Hampshire with its 3 EVs are going to Obama (like I said from the start). 13% lead for him, 53% to 40%. There’s no way this state is flipping red like the Republicans had hoped. I think they thought because he is notionally popular among Republicans that would somehow transfer over to independents (which the state has a huge amount of), but it hasn’t happened even slightly. The state hasn’t been swing for months – I wish that the polling companies would send pollsters to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina to give us a picture of what is happening through the South, rather than wasting time with the ‘blue horn’.

Anyway, if the election was held tomorrow, with my predictions of Indiana going with the landslide, the 1 EV from Omaha, Nebraska, and the Georgia numbers, Obama wins the election by a ridiculous and embarrassing margin: 391 EVs to 147 EVs. Take out Indiana, Nebraska, Missouri, and Georgia, Obama wins 353 to 185. Take out Ohio, it’s 333 to 205. Take out Florida, it’s 306 to 232. Other than that, you can’t take out any state that I have Obama winning without going against trends and polls. The election is running, not slipping, away from McCain and he is running out of time, and has run out of ammunition. What else can he do? He’s played his VP card, he’s had his convention, the first debate is done, the VP debate is done, he’s gone as dirty as you can get, he’s put forth all his policy views, and he has lost more ground the the French in World War Two. I’ve been saying that Obama will win the election and here’s the proof. The state polls are showing an Obama victory.

Thomas.

State polls

I have 2 posts to write, both about polls. First up is the state polls released over the past few days. Oregon (7EV) had a bit of a surprise. Barack Obama is up, but only by 3% here – 48% to 45%. No alarm bells will be ringing in the Obama campaign just yet, seeings as how he has led every Oregon poll from the start and by 8% just last week, but I think that more attention will be paid to the state in the weeks after the convention should this poll start a trend. Obama wins women here by 29% and McCain wins men by 29% – another big gender gap. Important here is that women make up 54% of the voters. Portland, the city-centre, is Obama’s by 9%, and crucial is that it makes up 64% of the voters. Otherwise, there might be a little trouble as McCain wins the rest of the areas anywhere up to 10%. If this poll is the truth, and it is a close state, McCain isn’t in much of a position to even capitalise on it. That’s why bringing Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska (and more, as you will soon see) is a triple hit – McCain has to defend his base, can’t compete in swing states, and can’t try and flip close Democratic states.

Some good news for McCain – he will win Utah! Yes, Utah (5EV) has two polls out, one giving McCain a 28% lead (57% to 29%) and another giving him a 19% lead (52% to 33%). That 9% difference is nothing notable, the state will go red. I don’t know why they even poll the state. I wouldn’t expect to see any more than 1 more poll from the state after the conventions.

New Mexico (5EV) was surveyed twice and came out with a healthy 8% lead for Obama – 47% to 39% – and an interesting 3% lead – 49% to 46%. I’ll look at the first poll first. There’s quite a bit of undecided here that could swing the result, but I expect Obama to target them with Bill Richardson, whether he is on the ticket or not. Obama leads among women by 11% and men by 7% and independents by 7%, and is still only getting 72% of the Democratic vote. If he were to get that number up to 80-85% then he would have a comfortable win in New Mexico come November. Interesting to note, 51% of respondents said they didn’t want to see Hillary Clinton as the VP, while only 29% said they did.

As for the second poll, we see some more similar numbers. Obama leads women by 30%, McCain men by 24%. This might be closer simply because of the location the poll was taken, the time of day, or the sample groups. There’s a range of reasons. But it still had Obama up. The state might be close, but the state is blue at the moment.

Pennsylvania (21EV) has a 4% lead for Obama – 46% to 42%. It’s up on his 2% lead last month. This is what’s expected in those swing states that Clinton won in the primaries – Obama needs to get in and familiarise himself with the voters. He is leading among voters on the issue of economics, and that will be a big advantage in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan. Interesting, Obama only gets 69% of the Democratic vote but is still winning by 4%. If he were to increase that by just 10% (ignoring that he could get it up a further 15%), his margin would be very comfortable. Obama’s overall lead comes from him winning independents by 11% – an extremely important lead to maintain in Pennsylvania. This is Obama’s 7th consecutive lead in Pennsylvania polls. I said a while ago that the state isn’t swing, that it’s blue. I’m right.

Michigan (17EV) was McCain’s only real chance of threatening Obama’s base. It looks as though that ship has set sail. Obama is up by 9% here in the latest poll – 48% to 39%. He is spending more time there, did the Edwards endorsement and the Gore endorsement there, and is campaigning heavy in the state. Expect the money to start flowing in the day after the convention. Extremely important number: Obama wins 78% of the Democratic vote. McCain is only winning 74% of the Republican vote. If McCain stays stagnant, and Obama is able to get that up to more than 80%, then Obama wins by double-figures. This is a blue state for now. Obama’s lead on economic issues will see that it probably stays blue too.

And we get to my favourite poll for the post: Indiana (11EV). The poll prior to this had it a race that would probably go McCains way, but room for Obama to maybe divert attention away (again, like North Carolina and Georgia) from real swing states – 48% to 39%. The latest poll, however, puts the state in the category with North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska – possible Democratic gains. The poll had Obama with a 1% lead, 48% to 47%. This will be probably more worrying that the other states because Indiana is like the litmus test for Republicans on the economy. Indiana is a red state – President Bush won it by 21% in 2004, 16% in 2000, while Bob Dole (Dole for crying out loud!) beat Bill Clinton in the state by 5% in 1996, and George Bush beat
Bill Clinton for it in 1992 by 6%. It is a red state, and the economy is the number one issue. If the Republican candidate is weak on the economy, then Indiana quickly starts looking for a candidate that is strong on the economy, and thus the state becomes competitive.

McCain could sure up the state by picking Mitt Romney as his VP, but he would quickly lose more ground in Georgia, North Carolina, and Alaska. McCain could go a different route to sure up those Southern states and pick a Southern VP like Mike Huckabee, but he would lose ground in Indiana and Alaska. This latest poll, if it’s the case on the ground, provides some serious problems for McCain. McCain is also at a disadvantage because Obama comes from neighbouring Illinois, because of the extended primary season in which a fair few Republicans switched parties in the excitement of the action and intended to continue voting Democrat, because the state has been hammered economically, and because the state seems to be blaming the sitting president and his party for their problems. This does not bode well for McCain.

Looking at the numbers in the poll, Obama wins women by 7%, McCain wins men by 5%. Obama wins the 18-49 ages by 5%, McCain withs the 50+ by 3%. The worst numbers for McCain is that he dominates in the issues of terrorism (92% to 8% for voters who view this issue as the most important) and immigration (90% to 8% for voters who view this issue as the most important), but that, combined, only 17% of Indiana voters consider these the most important issue. 62% of the state say that the economy and Iraq are the most important issues – and Obama wins both (54% to 40% and 66% to 31% respectively). Obama needs to keep these levels steady, improve on the other issues and win over the independents some more, and then we have a ballgame.

When you start looking at the list of traditional states that McCain is going to have to spend money on (North Carolina (15EV), Georgia (15EV), Alaska (3EV), Indiana (11EV)) we see that there is 44 Republican electoral votes up for grabs here, and no Democratic ones. If McCain isn’t worried … what am I saying, I’m sure he’s worried.

Thomas.

Polly polls

The latest round of state polls have come out. Let’s start with traditionally liberal and blue Washington (11EV). I felt the need to write ‘traditionally liberal and blue’ because it seems that some people have forgotten this fact – importantly, John McCain. He included Washington in his list of swing states and states that he would plug resources in to win. Either he was given the worst advice so far in this campaign or it was a horrible bluff to try and draw Barack Obama away from real swing states and back towards his base. Either way, the polls prove which way Washington will go come November. The last 5 polls from Washington had Obama leading by double-figures. This is no different, with a 15% lead – 55% to 40%. This is a blue state, and another lock for Obama.

Another poll from New Hampshire (4EV) comes our way because pollsters still think this state to be a battleground because of McCain’s popularity there, and its recent trend of getting bluer. This is also the second straight poll to have a double-figure lead for Obama. This one is 11% – 50% to 39%. Two months ago, McCain led the polls at 10%, then last month Obama got it to just a 5% lead. At this rate, the state will end up being the bluest of blues. Important to note, Obama wins among women by 16% and men by 7%, and most importantly independents by 15% – 50% to 35%.

California (55EV) is a huge state that the Democrats are extremely lucky to have a lock on. The latest poll has Obama 12% ahead of McCain – 53% to 41%. This poll is newsworthy because it shows Obama with a huge lead among the Hispanic vote – a 39% lead at 65% to 26%. The other demographics are the white vote where Obama has a lead in all of them – a 60% lead among the African-American vote, 80% to 20%, and a 41% lead among “other”, 68% to 27%. Again, Obama is winning among women by 33%. The pollsters here tested for the best VP pick, with Obama getting Bill Richardson and McCain getting New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Neither are likely, Bloomberg certainly not. McCain had mentioned about trying to compete in California, but he won’t run a single ad or stop in once now that he has to defend his home base as well as establish footing in swing states.

Next door is Nevada (5EV), and McCain has a razor lead over Obama – 3% (inside the margin of error) at 45% to 42%. These smaller states are the ones that will decide the race, and why Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Missouri are extremely important here. It should be noted that in May, McCain had a 6% lead in Nevada, so much like New Hampshire, it is drifting away from McCain. Whether it will drift as much and as fast as New Hampshire remains to be seen. It probably will, given the demographics. As for how they reported in the poll, McCain wins men by 14%, Obama wins women by 8%. The gender gap here is pretty obvious – a 22% difference between them. This state will stay close, but should end up Obama’s way.

Returning to Iowa (7EV), for the past 17 polls, Obama has been leading. This latest one is no different – a 4% lead (on the margin of error) at 49% to 45%. This figure is false, or at least will be no where near where the final result is. The poll has McCain winning the African-American vote by 10% – 55% to 45%. Obama’s lead in this poll will be slightly larger, but because the African-American vote generally makes up 2% of the total vote in Iowa, it won’t be much bigger.

Colorado (9EV) is a state that has gone Republican for the past 3 elections. Obama plans to hit it with a lot of cash and hit it hard. The latest poll, in line with the trend of having an Obama lead, puts McCain 2% behind – 43% to 41%. This will be, like Iowa and Nevada and New Mexico (all these states I’m saying will decide the election), a close race, but should go Obama’s way.

And now we get to my favourite poll for the weekend – Georgia (15EV). It is a statistical tie, with McCain on a 1% lead – 4% to 43%. This will fall into the same basket as North Carolina – a disaster! No one thought that the state would come into play, even when Obama said his campaign would target it. It was always going to be a ‘distraction state’, again, like North Carolina, that pulled McCain and Republican resources away from real swing states. It looks like, in the process of doing this that, Obama has actually brought the state into play. Yes, like North Carolina. Obama and his campaign said that they were targeting the state not as a distraction but as serious, based on their own internal numbers. Bu no one believed them, and wrote it off.

Georgia is now in play. If Obama won all of Kerry’s states (which he can easily do) and Georgia, Obama wins. It’s another North Carolina. I’m sorry to keep repeating that line, but it’s the case – traditional Republican state being brought into play by a stellar candidate and a lot of money. Whether the state will go blue or red is hard to say based of one poll. See how it is 2 months after the conventions and then we will be able to predict it. Anyway, Georgia is no longer a McCain lock, it’s a swing state. Much more of this and McCain won’t have to worry about defending the base and can compete in as many swings states as he likes – because his entire base will be swing states! This will be a hard-fought race here.

I might point out here that I regularly mention Obama’s standing among women in the polls because it continues to add ammunition to the argument against adding Clinton to the ticket. Obama is winning women rather healthy at the moment. It can improve and it will improve once the issues are brought onto the table. Clinton isn’t needed on the ticket to win them. Most have been won over, more will be won over, and the ones who are never won over would never have been won over with or without Clinton.

Thomas.

Virginia Senate and other polls.

I’m going to try and attempt to get back into reporting on polls. As a slight preface, though I highly doubt it needs explaining, polls are, for the moment, only between Barack Obama and John McCain. When their respective vice president candidates are chosen, then the polls may change to Obama and McCain, VP and VP, but most importantly Democratic ticket vs. Democratic ticket. This last one is important because it judges the both presidential and vice presidential candidate, and not the candidates alone. It’s just something I thought I’d point out, and I’ll draw your attention to it in the respective polls, but until then, polls are Obama and McCain only.

The latest poll came out for the Virginia senate race, and it’s a foregone conclusion (lest something drastic and unthinkable happens). Mark Warner, the former Democratic governor, is well ahead of Jim Gilmore, former Republican governor – 60% to 33%. With such an overwhelming number, you might think that the state will start to trend blue in coming polls on the presidential race. It has, though not as resounding – 45% to 44% Obama over McCain. That still leaves quite a bit of undecided who will decide this race. If Obama can gain some traction off the waves that Warner is making among the electorate, then surely he can win the state and its 13 electoral votes. This puts him in a position of not needing to Florida or Ohio, and picking up an extra swing-state that he is performing much better than McCain in.

But the pressure is lifted much more with the latest poll to come out of Ohio, with 20 electoral college votes. For the second straight poll, Obama is up and leading by 11% – 50% to 39%. There are as many ‘undecided’ here as Virginia, but only as much as Obama’s lead. The last pol had Obama up by 9%. In March, McCain led by 8% – 49% to 41%. In all that time, Obama has gained 9% and McCain has fallen 10%. That indicates that McCain could have some serious problems in Ohio. Which instantly transfers to Pennsylvania – a very similar state. Obama has been solid in Pennsylvania too, so it’s a one-or-the-other decision for McCain with these two states – and even focusing on one doesn’t lock it up either.

Kansas has a surprising poll – McCain up (of course), but only by 12% – 53% to 41%. What makes the poll worrying is that Obama is only getting 59% of the Democratic vote in the state. When Obama unites the party (not if) that number will get as high at 75% to 85%. This brings the poll into single-digits. The Obama campaign will have studied the numbers and know this, so they will throw their millions around, along with the DNC, to stretch McCain, who, along with the RNC, is strapped for cash and can hardly compete with the Democrat’s money. What the DNC and Obama will be trying to do is force McCain’s hand here. They don’t realistically plan on winning Kansas, but making McCain spend money defending the base is going to take money away from key swing states, thus making it easier for Obama. Of course, if McCain abandons the base to luck and hope, and doesn’t defend them, he could lose the state, and we see a different path to victory for Obama.

Watch out if Obama picked Kathleen Sibelius, Governor of Kansas, as the VP.

This whole spreading McCain thin tactic is going to be one of the main 3 ways that Obama will win. Mississippi (6), Georgia (15), Kansas (6), Arkansas (6) and now North Carolina (15) (I’ll get to that in a second) are all states that, on paper, should go the Republicans way but have the trends and demographics that the Democrats could exploit to edge out a win. There’s 48 electoral collage votes there. By sloshing money around there, they can win 1, 2, maybe even 3. But by sloshing money around all of these, and maybe one or two more, like Louisiana and South Carolina, it means McCain has to direct attention towards them (because he needs them to win) and away from Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado – the swing states.

With North Carolina, McCain has serious problems. The state is leaning much more towards Obama than paper shows. The latest poll shows McCain winning 45% to 41%,. The average Joe Blogger looks at that and says “North Carolina regularly votes Republican. McCain is up, therefore McCain will win it.” Your more enlightened blogger will look at that and ask where it comes from. That poll was a Republican conducted and reported poll. The more tuned-in blogger then start questioning the numbers. What do they show? A very promising picture for Obama.

The poll has 18% of the electorate as African-American. In 2004, it was actually 26%, and has grown in terms of raw number since then. But everyone knows that it would have gone up with or without real grow because Obama is on the ticket. It isn’t outside the realm of possibilities that it will get as high at 30% to 35% this election. Additionally, Obama will get the 86%+ of the African-American voters that this poll reported, so this alone brings the poll into a real numerical tie.

Second number that gets questioned: Women. The poll numbers than at 55%. In 2004, women turnout accounted for 59% of the voters in North Carolina. In this poll, Obama beats McCain among women. Obama’s numbers will improve among women before November too. This poll, really by now, should be looked at as though Obama were winning.

Why should this be seen as an Obama win? Because changing the numbers around accordingly, it brings the poll to 46% to 42% Obama’s way. That’s what can accurately be reported. Then you take a look at another number that will have Republicans worried – Obama is only getting 63% of the Democratic vote in the state. When (again, not if) Obama unites the party, he can look at anywhere between 75% and 85% of the vote here. Let’s take the lowest threshold of 75%. The poll turns into a roughly 8% lead for Obama – well outside the margin of error. This was a state that, originally, Obama would invest money in to cause problems for McCain, stretch his resources, and take him out of play in swing states. Look at these numbers and the problem might actually be that Obama will win North Carolina, and 15 electoral college votes.

That’s beyond a problem and a headache for McCain – it’s a disaster. There aren’t enough close Democratic states for McCain to flip to his side. At the very best, and that best here isn’t that good a chance, Michigan and Minnesota are two states that McCain is still close in (in terms of polls) that John Kerry won in 2004. Remember, all Obama needs to do is get John Kerry’s result plus 19 electoral votes and he wins. At the moment, with Obama leading in Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Missouri Obama can afford to lose both Michigan and Minnesota to get past 270 votes – 286 to be exact. Seeings that these two states (Michigan and Minnesota) have been hit hard with the economy, which favours Democrats, the chances of both these states flipping to McCain is very slim, much less one of them.

Now, factor in that Obama could win North Carolina. If Obama won those states previous given to him and North Carolina, Obama can afford to lose more Kerry states. But, you see, there aren’t really any Kerry states to lose. So it comes down that Obama can afford to lose swing states. When you’re looking down the barrel of an opponent who can afford to lose swing states (the whole reason of calling them swing states is because they swing an election) then you have serious, serious problems. So if Obama wants to target North Carolina, like I expect he will now, he wins on three fronts – he pulls McCain out of Michigan and Minnesota (two keys to a McCain win), he pulls McCain out of New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, and he can win North Carolina and 301 electoral votes.

As an aside, a VP pick from Virginia would go a way to helping win independents and sing voters in North Carolina. But an even bigger boost would be picking North Carolina’s Democratic Governor Mike Easley . His name will have moved into contention with these latest numbers. Would have moved right up with Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland saying he doesn’t want the VP spot.

And so that’s the latest polling story. It’s the first of many I expect I will do concerning the general election. But they will likely all spin the same tale – Obama is in the lead.

Thomas.

Super Tuesday I – Democrats

Here comes the first post of mine concerning Super Tuesday. I’m sure, as a bazillion polls are released over the next week, that I’ll be blogging more about the monumental day in the primary race, but for now, I wanted to get the ball rolling. For two reasons mainly – to document where we are at now, a little under a week out from the 5th; and to show how the polls change and move around, sort of evidence of political evolution.

There is one thing in the schedule that has the ability to change the polls some. Florida. Yes, it won’t count, but the voting will still happen there for the Democrats. Why? Well, maybe they hope that the D.N.C. will change their mind. Maybe they think that their vote is still important anyway. Whatever happens, the vote will make for some interesting news. Hillary Clinton still polls first among the Democrats, a 20 point lead over Barack Obama, 49% to 29%, in the latest SurveyUSA poll. That number is pretty stable across polls, perhaps a little high, but consistent with the state’s trends over the past months. It has always been a Clinton state by the polls, and for some reason, Obama-fever never really caught on there. But the figure could be inflated, so you never know how close a race it could be there.

I will now turn my attention to report now, after the fallout from the South Carolina vote, and in the wake of the Kennedy endorsements, on the polls for a dozen (or so) states that fall into the Super Tuesday basket.

And first up, the grand-daddy of them all: California. It’s the biggest state that’s up for grabs in the primary. 441 delegates up for grabs in total, with 370 tied to the primary vote, and without the ‘winner takes all’ system, each candidate is likely to get a slice of the action. The latest poll, SurveyUSA, from this state have Clinton up by 11% against Obama, 49% to 38%. Coming in 3rd is John Edwards at 9%, leaving a 4% uncommitted. Since the start of the New Year, this state has received much polling attention – before, it had little. So these figures, and averages, are probably reasonably accurate. Speaking of the average, it’s Clinton at 44.2%, Obama at 32.2%, and Edwards at 11%. The polls in California have been showing Clinton firming as favourite since the 14th of January (Rasmussen), where Obama was only 5% away from her, 38% to 33%. Steadily she had gained up to a 17% lead, though since South Carolina, and all the antics leading up to it, that lead has dropped to 11% in recent polls. I expect this to be a very tight race, with both finishing in the 40’s. Obama 44%, Clinton 48%.

The next biggest state on the 5th is New York, and by all accounts and pundit’s predictions, a Clinton win. Though, again (and I don’t want to harp on about it), without the ‘winner takes all’ system, Obama can still pick up a sizable amount of delegates here. the state has 281 delegates available. Though Clinton’s “home state” (only because the Democratic Party dropped her into an extremely safe Senate seat), she polls at, in the latest poll (USA Today/Gallup) at 56%, while Obama pulls in 2nd at 28%, and Edwards at 10%. This is an extreme jump from previous polling data from the state. Having been taken over the days leading up to South Carolina, it may, in fact, be inflated. Previous polls, had her at 51% (Quinnipiac – Obama 25%, Edwards 11%; and Rasmussen – Obama 30%, Edwards 10%), 48% (WNBC/Marist – Obama32%, Edwards 9%; and Siena – Obama 23%, Edwards 10%), and 47% (Zogby – Obama 26%, Edwards 9%). These all bring the average lead for Clinton to 22.9% – her 50.2% to Obama’s 27.3% and Edwards’ 9.8%. I feel that the state may have some polls to bring this to an average lead of less than 20% by the end of Super Tuesday, though I still expect Clinton to get 52-54% of the vote there. Thus, while she will recieve half the delegates (in theory), Obama will receive a third of them, maybe as high as two-fifths if things go well (38% I predict) – not too bad in her home state.

Moving to the next most delegate-rich state, and we find ourselves in a real home state – Obama’s. Illinois has 185 delegates, and while significantly less than the previous two, still important in that it’s one of the many Great Lake states that will vote on the day. The problem (well, not a real problem) with Illinois is that it has been ruled such a pro-Obama state that there has only been 3 polls taken there since July ’07. The first poll, American Research Group, taken last July, had only a 4% lead to Obama against Clinton, 37% to 33%. Edwards pulled in 3rd at 10%. The next poll, by the Chicago Tribune in early December ’07, had Obama 25% up on Clinton – 50% to 25%. Edwards again came in 3rd at 7%. Finally, the latest poll from Illinois by Research 2000 has Obama up again against Clinton by 29% – 51% to 22%. Edwards pulls up third once again with a much improved 15%. This is how a home state should be won – with a 30% lead. Not something less than 20% like New York. Obama will be looking to take a big majority of the delegates here, while Edwards might be hoping for a 2nd place finish. There’s a chance Edwards could get that with the way the Clinton camp has attacked the state’s own. If the voters are motivated, and take it as an attack on themselves, and factor in a few more slip-ups by the Clintons as well as minimal campaigning there, then Edwards could pick up a nice 2nd place finish. But either way, it’s an Obama win this state. I expect a 34% margin win here after the South Carolina showing.

New Jersey comes in as the next most delegate-rich state at 127, though with only 107 delegates up for grabs with the primary vote. This, much like New York, has been a Clinton favourite state. January came, and the pollsters dropped into N.J., like California and New York. The latest poll out of the state, Quinnipiac, gives Clinton a 17% lead over Obama – 49% to 32%. Edwards in at 3rd on 10%. This data was gathered before the South Carolina fiasco (on the part of the Clinton’s) so I would expect Obama’s numbers to come up a bit from the 9% uncommitted. Rasmussen conducted their research on the 15th of January only, one of the days that Quinnipiac did their 7 day collection, and managed to get 866 respondents – 402 more than Quinnipiac. Their data had Clinton at an 18% lead on Obama, though different numbers – 45% to 27%. Edwards was at 11%. This meant that the uncommitted was around 17% – a very high number for a state that is generally regarded as Clinton’s, and expected to follow New York. The averages are probably to be trusted for when the data was gathered (the 9th of January through to the 22nd), as the two other polls contributing are the highest lead for Clinton (25% by Research 2000 – 48% Clinton, 23% Obama, 11% Edwards) and the lowest lead for her (12% – 42% Clinton, 30% Obama, 9% Edwards). The averages are 46% for Clinton, 28% for Obama, and 10.3% for Edwards. This still leaves a huge 16% uncommitted. Since South Carolina and the Kennedy’s endorsements, and with the hope of some more good fortune, Obama stands a good chance at gobbling this up and pegging this to a single-figure win for Clinton. If that were to happen (the single-figure win for Clinton) then Obama would split the delegates (getting more than he was bargaining for) with her (presumably), and penetrate one of the strongholds the Clinton camp thought they had.

Massachusetts is the next state with the most delegates. It’s a state that, with recent endorsements by John Kerry, Teddy Kennedy, and Caroline Kennedy, Obama stands a chance of winning a majority in. It has 121 delegates up for grabs with the vote. I’ll make it known now: I reject all the polling data available for the state at the moment. Three polls, conducted through January (between the 9th and the 23rd), with two of them coming from the same company with extremely similar sample data. The first poll to come out the state is from State House News, and that has Clinton with a lead of 12% over Obama – 37% to 25% – with Edwards coming in 3rd on 14%. The next two polls are from SurveyUSA – the first has Clinton with a 33% lead to Obama, 56% to 23%. Edwards comes in 3rd on 14% again. The second poll has Clinton with a 37% lead on Obama, 59% to 22%, while Edwards pulls up 3rd on 11%. There isn’t much I can say about Massachusetts if I don’t believe the whole three polls available, other than with the endorsements previously mentioned, more campaigning, and some good campaigning by Edwards (because this is a state he should poll better in), Clinton’s lead could narrow to something not so ridiculous as 37%. Seriously, if she isn’t even getting that big of a lead in her own “home state”, how can she get it from Massachusetts? Anyway, anything I say is a stab in the dark here – Obama with 34%?

Georgia is a bigger state than it is given credit. It’s the biggest Southern state up for grabs on Super Tuesday. 103 delegates are up for grabs, and the proportion of the ‘black’ vote in the state is similar to that of South Carolina. This, my friends, will also be an Obama state. The latest Rasmussen poll suggest so to, and while taken on the 22nd of January, and a 571 sample rate, it still gave Obama a 6% lead over Clinton – 41% to 35%. Edwards came in 3rd at 13%. I really do expect Obama’s figure to go up past 10% in the next rounds of polls from this state (if there is any?). He won South Carolina, the first Southern state. He has romped in the ‘black’ vote each time. He has gained serious traction, and it should be a state he gets good numbers in. The 41% number, I believe, was accurate for the time, as the polls had been turning for some time, while always being a competitive state. Back in April ’07, Strategic Vision (R) had Clinton up by just 3% on Obama – 25% to 22% – and Edwards at a whopping 20% (note the large amount of undecided). Strategic Vision was the only company to poll the state, and in October polled Clinton with her highest lead of 13% to Obama – 40% to 27%. By now Edwards’ 3rd place was back to a regular 11%. Come December, her lead was 7% (34% to 27% to 12%). Then, in a Mason-Dixon poll, Obama was leading by 3% to Clinton – 36% to 33% – Edwards at 14%. Then came the previously mentioned Rasmussen poll. What is interesting to note here is the large amount of uncommitted, and the higher numbers that Edwards has polled – the 20% he got, the 12% – 14% in recent polls. While he isn’t in a good enough position to snag 2nd place from Clinton, he is in a good position to keep delegates away from her as he eats up bits of the vote. Some favourable turns for Edwards and he could get up to one-fifth of the delegates with a 20% vote. And if Obama could manage over 50% of the vote, then half are his alone. Anyway, I predict a 48% vote for Obama here.

And those are the ‘Big 6’ from Super Tuesday. They are the only states that have more than 100 delegates up for grabs. The next highest are Minnesota and Missouri, both with 88 delegates. But that, and the next few states, are for another post. I expect people have skimmed most of this post, if not just clicking to the very end to see if I have anything exciting to say. Alas, I do not. It’s too early. Come closer, I’ll reevaluate my predictions, tell you them, then tell you how many delegates that will get each candidate. Hopefully it doesn’t make me look the fool.

Thomas.