A lot of people accuse me of being ‘Americanised’ or ‘less worldly’ than I should be due to all my posts on U.S. politics. Not so, I say to them. Not so at all. You accusers want evidence? Well, here you go. A rundown of the soon-to-be-help presidential election in the Republic of China.
On the 22nd of March, the Republic of China(1) (commonly, and incorrectly, known as Taiwan among less worldly people) is going to hold their presidential elections. A good friend of mine, Ma Ying-jeou, running for the centre-right Kuomintang (KMT) party, with running mate Vincent Siew is expected to win the election by a healthy margin ahead of the centre-left Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and their candidate Frank Hsieh, with running mate Su Tseng-chan.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. Yes, there does seem to be some racial division here. The man with the least Western name is winning in the opinion polling, and expected to win the election in 2 days. I think Ma Ying-jeou played his cards right in appealing to both the ‘pro-West name’ demographic here, and the ‘anti-West name’ demographic name, by including Vincent Siew on ticket. This way, the ‘anti-West namers’ get ‘their man’ in charge of the country, and the ‘pro-West namers’ have their man second-in-charge. It’s a complicated set of demographics there, so I won’t bore you with any more details.
Unlike in America where you get bland nicknames for politicians like ‘Dubbya‘ Bush, ‘Slick Willy‘ Clinton, ‘Anti-Christ‘ Obama, or Australia with ‘King of the Caveats‘ Rudd(2), in the RoC, they know how to give a ‘polly’ a nickname. We have ‘Smiling’ Siew, who seems to be consistently smiling – whether he is talking about his children or the reunification with mainland China. And then we have ‘Teflon pot’ Ying-jeou. Why? Because no matter how many “scandals”(3) he went through, nothing stuck and he came out squeaky clean.
Sure, there might be allegations of bribery, preferential contracts, awful infrastructure planning and investment, financial illegalities, shutting down hospitals, misuse of special expenses, embezzling money (and get indited for it), and have his loyalty to his country called into question (by the left-leaning party of all groups!), floating around. Anyone can have these sorts of things casting a shadow over their name on the Internet and Wikipedia, but the good voters of the RoC know the real deal – that the left is secretly pushing their agenda with each of these allegations.
Something else that’s ‘Big Trouble in Little China’ is that there is something like 4 political parties running around. If Italy has taught us anything(4) its that having many political parties running a country is a recipe of disaster(5). What the RoC should do is take a leaf from countries like the United States or Australia who only have 2 serious parties to fight over the voters. Better yet, take a page out of ‘Big China’s’ book and have only 1 political party.
To avoid some of the problems that having many political parties brings to the front, there’s now 2 coalitions that will govern the country as a majority (if need be). There is the proud and masculine Pan-Blue Coalition, of which the KMT is part of with the People First Party, and the New Party, neither of which will field a candidate for the election, but have stated (repeatedly) that they will support the KMT’s candidate.
On the other side, we have the wussy, liberal, socially-corrosive Pan-Green Coalition, which is the DPP in some sort of relationship, that, no doubt, should be banned, with the Taiwan Solidarity Union. Just like Lenin, Trotsky, and Stalin couldn’t get in the same communist bed(6), neither can these two parties. The chairman of the TSU, Shu Chin-Chiang, even met with Ma Ying-jeou, and declared him ‘president-to-be’. Newsflash: Stalin never endorsed FDR during the election!
The issues are surprisingly many and complex for a country as small as the RoC. You might think that their economic debates revolve around whether they should export cheap plastic kangaroos or cheap plastic koalas to Australia. You’d be wrong. The main issue for the economy is whether to create a ‘single market’ with China. The forward thinking Ying-jeou advocates this, while Hsieh cites toxic paint as a reason to not do this. If the Republic of China wants to be a true democracy, they will allow their citizens to decide for themselves if they want to give their kids toxic lead painted toys or not.
National independence is a raging issue that separates the two parties. I’m a bit miffed as to why the right-minded KMT want to unify with raging-communist mainland China, yet the left-minded dissidents of the DPP want to stay independent. But apparently that’s the case. I wouldn’t discount the theory that it’s a secret left agenda to get what they want whether the right party wins or the left party wins. Either way, you could get communism!
Now, to finish up this post, a brief rundown of the polls. Since January, 2007, consistent polling has been conducted. And … the KMT has won them all. And, in a pretty consistent trend, the undecided vote outnumbered the DPP vote. The biggest margin of victory for the KMT was 42% (60% to 18% with a 22% undecided vote). However, as the election has entered the final 10 days, I had to contact my bookie to find out the latest polling.
You see, the most reliable polling in the final 10 days comes by way of gambling circuits and syndicates. My connection in that neck of the woods, Hstang Wang(7), said that the best bet to get on was “Ma wins by 200,000 votes”, and to not touch the “Ma wins by 500,000 votes”, as the recent incident of 4 Pan-Blue members walking into Hsieh’s office, accused him of getting free office space from the government, then started a fist-fight with other Pan-Green members, has hurt Ying-jeou’s chances slightly. He is expected to win still, so my $280 bet(8) on Ying-jeou is looking like a sound investment.
Thomas.
Notes:
(1) Not to be confused with the crazy red menace People’s Republic of China
(2) Thanks Latham!
(3) Left-wing conspiracies to bring down their opponent
(4) Other than foundations for building should be sound and solid
(5) But not as tasty a recipe as pizza
(6) Or should that be under the same communist bed?
(7) No Western names for my made-up Asian bookies – just like the KMT would want
(8) That’s TWD$280 (or New Taiwan Dollars for the uneducated)
Deus Lo Vult 